Who is Hashem Safieddine, Leading Candidate to Succeed Nasrallah?

Hashem Safieddine in a photo from 2015 (AFP)
Hashem Safieddine in a photo from 2015 (AFP)
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Who is Hashem Safieddine, Leading Candidate to Succeed Nasrallah?

Hashem Safieddine in a photo from 2015 (AFP)
Hashem Safieddine in a photo from 2015 (AFP)

Unconfirmed reports suggest that Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Lebanon's Hezbollah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut on Friday, raising questions about who might succeed him after 32 years in power.

While the process for selecting leaders in groups like Hezbollah is often secretive, Hashem Safieddine emerges as a top contender if the rumors are confirmed.

A cousin of Nasrallah and the father of the son-in-law of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Safieddine has been groomed for leadership since 1994.

Safieddine closely resembles Nasrallah in appearance and mannerisms. He moved from Qom to Beirut to lead Hezbollah’s Executive Council, which functions as the party’s governing body, with oversight from the late security chief Imad Mughniyeh.

For three decades, Safieddine has been a key player in Hezbollah, managing day-to-day operations and financial affairs while leaving strategic decisions to Nasrallah.

Safieddine, who has been on the US terrorism list since 2017, is a prominent Hezbollah official known for his close connections to both the military and executive branches of the group.

His relationships within the party have made him a significant player in its leadership.

Safieddine’s Strong Ties to Iran Enhance Leadership Chances

Safieddine has strong connections with Tehran, having spent years studying at the Qom seminary before being called to Beirut by Nasrallah to take on key roles in Hezbollah.

In 2020, his son, Rida, married Zainab Soleimani, the daughter of Soleimani, who was killed in a US airstrike in Baghdad that same year.

Sixteen years ago, an Iranian newspaper suggested Safieddine as a potential successor to Nasrallah, but sources indicate that the decision was made much earlier.

A former senior Hezbollah leader revealed that Safieddine was chosen about two years after Nasrallah became Secretary-General in 1992, following the assassination of Abbas al-Mousawi by Israel.

Safieddine was urgently summoned from Qom to Beirut in 1994 to take a position that allowed him to control the party’s financial and administrative operations.

His chances of succeeding Nasrallah are strengthened by their similar paths within the party, although Nasrallah, who is only two years older, carries a more significant political presence.

Safieddine has remained largely unknown in Lebanese politics until recently.

Due to heightened security around Nasrallah, he has stepped into the spotlight at party events, especially during funerals for members killed in Lebanon or while fighting alongside President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and other areas supporting Iran’s regional agenda.

Limited information is available about Safieddine. He was born in 1964 in Deir Qanun al-Nahr, a town in southern Lebanon, to a family with a strong social presence.

His family includes Mohammad Safieddine, a prominent MP in the 1960s and 1970s, as well as several well-known religious figures.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.