The Truth between Two Wars: July 2006 and October 2023

Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)
Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)
TT

The Truth between Two Wars: July 2006 and October 2023

Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)
Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)

The dangerous plight Lebanon endured in 2006 and currently enduring since October 8, 2023, share several similarities and vast differences.

The moment the Israeli enemy carried out its aggression against Lebanon in July 2006 – under the pretext of retaliating to a Hezbollah military operation and kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers – I called cabinet to meet to discuss the danger of the assault and its consequences. We discussed measures that should be taken to protect national security and civilians in areas that were being targeted to prevent the South from being emptied of its people.

I clearly stated that the government was taken by surprise by Hezbollah’s operation. We were unaware of it and did not adopt it. We condemned the Israeli aggression against Lebanon, its sovereignty and people, and urged the need to file an urgent complaint at the United Nations Security Council and demand a ceasefire.

- Distance between the state and party -

The government effectively established a clear distance between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah, allowing it to address the Arab and international communities to help Lebanon and strengthen its perseverance. This also enabled and allowed it to assume its role as the victim – a role Israel had tried to play since that morning of July 12, 2023.

I made sure that the Lebanese state, with all of its elements and means, would be responsible for everything: tackling the outcomes of what happened and what would happen, that it would assume its responsibilities in taking all measures and decisions to protect Lebanon and its people, and that it would provide all the means for their perseverance and protect the displaced Lebanese.

Since that day, the government Serial turned into a tireless national workshop, while members of government formed a united team to defend Lebanon and ensure the functioning of state institutions to allow daily life to continue. Civil society was also entrusted with playing its role in defending Lebanon.

On the external front, and with the cooperation of Lebanon’s foreign minister, daily contacts were intensified with senior world officials, such as the UN secretary-general, heads of fraternal Arab states and friendly influential countries that could impact world decisions. A ceasefire was our primary demand at the Security Council.

At the time, the Israeli enemy continued its war on Lebanon. It targeted vital facilities, destroyed bridges, roads, schools and infrastructure in villages and towns. The government, meanwhile, worked tirelessly in bringing together the world and international organizations to condemn the assault against Lebanon.

- Seven-point plan -

Along with the cabinet and effective role of the president, I presented to world leaders and the Security Council solutions to end the war against Lebanon. The government adopted a seven-point plan that I proposed at the Rome conference. The plan was adopted by the Security Council as part of its international resolution for a ceasefire.

The Security Council issued resolution 1701 and the war ended. The displaced returned to their homes and villages starting August 14, 2006. The reconstruction plan of infrastructure and destroyed and damaged buildings was carried out with the highest level of competence, credibility, efficiency and speed in due to the generous aid offered by Arab states, especially the Gulf, and friendly countries. Lebanon could rely on these countries after the trust that the government consolidated and built with all brothers and friends.

And so, Lebanon rose again and prospered. It went on to resume its natural Arab and international role. From 2007 and 2010, Lebanon achieved the highest growth rate in its history and over a four-year period. It achieved a major surplus in its balance of payments and a very positive surplus in its foreign currency reserves in the Central Bank. It also achieved a major relative drop in its public debt.

- Unity of arenas without foundation -

In contrast, what happened on October 8, 2023, was a result of Hezbollah’s vision of the “unity of arenas”. It took its actions alone and at its own responsibility without informing or the knowledge of the legitimate authorities in Lebanon. It opened the southern Lebanese front with occupied Palestine without also taking into consideration the very dire circumstances that Lebanon has been and still continues to endure.

The very next day I issued a statement stressing that Lebanon will not and cannot be dragged into such a military battle. I listed five fundamental reasons: the national and political crisis caused by the vacuum in the presidency, failure to form a responsible government, the stifling economic crisis, the Syrian refugee crisis and Lebanon’s loss of close ties with its Arab fold and loss of the Arab and international safety net that protected it in 2006. Added to that is the majority of the Lebanese people’s lack of sympathy or support of Hezbollah’s military operation.

Now, resolution 1701 has not been implemented as it should, and the UN and Security Council have not played their role in ensuring the implementation of all international resolutions related to Lebanon and the Palestinian cause. Israel has proven that it does not want just and lasting peace in the region. It does not recognize international law, international legitimacy or human rights. It has been running rampant in genocide, killing, and destruction in Gaza and the West Bank. Now, it has its sights on Lebanon where it is killing civilians and displacing the people, destroying homes and infrastructure and abusing modern technology.

- Nation searches for heroes -

Now, we are where we are, facing obstacles to outlets that can help Lebanon out of this Israeli aggression. I believe that certain officials in Lebanon can play a major national role in the absence of a president. I believe these figures are Nabih Berri, the parliament speaker, and Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister. They must intensify their efforts and earn this heroic role. All dutiful officials must save Lebanon and take the initiative to help it through adopting the following six points:

First, national duty demands that all Lebanese people come together and act according to a unified basis and national fraternity. The entire Lebanese population condemns this barbaric Israeli aggression that is targeting the whole of Lebanon and its structure, which cannot tolerate the idea of no victor and no vanquished.

Second, solutions in Lebanon can only be reached through unifying national proposals that are based on the full implementation of the Taif Accord and Lebanese constitution. They should adhere to the state and its authority. The state is independent and it alone is responsible for protecting the nation and its sovereignty and its people and their security and stability.

Third, the Israeli aggression is targeting the whole of Lebanon and all the Lebanese people. No one wants this attack and sees in it an opportunity to back their political position. So, efforts should be focused on supporting the state and allowing it to take control and assume responsibility, bringing together the people so that their sole concern would be saving Lebanon and helping it out of this dangerous crisis that is threatening their nation, their unity and their fate.

Fourth, the Security Council must issue a resolution for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon. It must assume its responsibilities in preserving international peace and security through obligating all parties to fully and immediately implement resolution 1701 and respect all relevant resolutions.

Fifth, Speaker Berri must call parliament to convene to discuss the dangers that are looming around the Lebanese state and people. The parliament must ensure the preservation of the Lebanese entity, respect the constitution, and preserve Lebanon’s unity and territorial integrity. Berri must call for the election of a new president without delay.

The president must be able to unite all the people and form a responsible government that would assume the responsibility in implementing resolution 1701 in full. It must work on reviving the state and restoring its sovereignty. It must bolster the role of the Lebanese state in maintaining the country’s independence and freedom.

Sixth, efforts must be exerted with all Arab brothers and the Arab League, as well as all friendly countries and institutions, to offer the necessary and immediate aid to the displaced. The safe return of the displaced must be ensured and the necessary funds for reconstruction must be secured.

This new plight has demonstrated that Lebanon has not learned from the lessons of 2006. It has become exposed in every aspect before the Israeli enemy, which has taken advantage of its superior firepower, air force, technology, intelligence and unlimited support from the international community to kill and destroy. The enemy is still hoping to sow division and strife between the Lebanese people. God willing, this will not happen. The enemy has not shied away from committing massacres and assassinations, the last of which was the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

Today, the whole of Lebanon is facing a test. Will the UN and Security Council champion what is right? Will the Lebanese people rally together to defend Lebanon and their right for a dignified and safe life, and teach Israel a lesson in rights, humanity and respect for human rights?

*Fuad Siniora is a Lebanese former prime minister.



Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
TT

Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

The UN nuclear agency has confirmed that Iran plans to install around 6,000 new centrifuges to enrich uranium, according to a report seen by AFP on Friday.

“Iran informed the Agency that it intended to feed” around 6,000 centrifuges at its sites in Fordo and Natanz to enrich uranium to up to five percent, higher than the 3.67 percent limit Tehran had agreed to in 2015.

The Iranian decision came in response to a resolution adopted on November 21 by the UN nuclear watchdog that censures Tehran for what the agency called lack of cooperation.

On Thursday, Iran had threatened to end its ban on acquiring nuclear weapons if Western sanctions are reimposed.

The country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in an interview that the nuclear debate inside Iran is likely to shift towards the possession of its own weapons if the west goes ahead with a threat to reimpose all UN sanctions,

What are centrifuges?

They are precise devices with cylinders that rotate much faster than the speed of sound, to collect enriched uranium atoms.

To explain how centrifugation works, rotating cylinders are much like medical laboratory equipment used to test blood.

The high rotation speeds exert a rotational force that separates the various components of blood as a function of their density and quantity in the sample.

In the case of uranium, the centrifuge operates using the familiar principle of centrifugal force. This force separates two gases of unequal masses in a spinning cylinder or tube. The heavier uranium-238 isotope collects at the outer edges of the cylinder while the lighter uranium-235 collects near the axis of rotation at the center.

Around 20 kg of uranium enriched to a 90% purity level would be needed for a single nuclear weapon. It would take about 1,500 SWU to produce a weapon-equivalent of 90 percent-enriched uranium from this enriched uranium.

At Fordo, Iran is currently using the two only operating cascades of IR-6 centrifuges there to enrich to 60% from 20%.

There are 1,044 centrifuges active at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said.

He had earlier asked the Iran Atomic Energy Agency to begin inserting uranium gas into newly activated advanced centrifuges.

Early this month, a spokesperson for the US State Department said Iran's expansion of uranium enrichment activities in defiance of key nuclear commitments is "a big step in the wrong direction”.

His statement came after Tehran announced it would start injecting uranium gas into centrifuges at Fordo.

Dispute

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 2015 between Tehran and Western countries, says advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment could operate until January 2027.

The difference between the first generation of centrifuges (IR-1) and the other generations is speed. The latest generation, IR-6, could enrich uranium up to 10 times faster than the first-generation IR-1, according to Iranian officials.

During the heyday of its nuclear program, Iran operated a total of 10,204 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz and Fordo facilities. But under the deal, Iran's commitments included operating no more than 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges for a period of 10 years.

Although the centrifuges that Iran installed before the 2015 nuclear deal were of the first generation, Tehran’s recent uranium enrichment activity at nuclear sites has reached disturbingly advanced levels, potentially increasing the nuclear proliferation risk.

Major centrifuge activities in Iran

May 2008: Iran installed several centrifuges including more modern models.

March 2012: Iranian media announced 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz.

August 2012: The International Atomic Energy Agency announced that Iran had installed large parts of the centrifuges at Fordo.

November 2012: An IAEA report confirmed that all advanced centrifuges had been installed at Fordo, although there were only four working centrifuges, and another four fully equipped, vacuum tested, and ready to go.

February 2013: IAEA says Iran has operated 12,699 IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz site.

June 2018: Iran’s supreme leader revealed Tuesday that it ultimately wants 190,000 nuclear centrifuges — a figure 30 times higher than world powers allowed under the 2015 deal.

September 2019: Iran mounted 22 IR-4, one IR-5, 30 IR-6, and three IR-6 for testing, outside the treaty boundaries.

September 2019: Iran announced it started operating advanced and fast centrifuges to enrich uranium.

November 2024: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces that his country will operate several thousand advanced centrifuges.

November 2024: Iranian state television broadcasts AEOI Chief Mohammad Eslami announcing that “gasification of a few thousands of new generation centrifuges has been started.”