Lessons from Iran Missile Attacks for Defending against China's Advanced Arsenal

A transport vehicle carrying missiles and various munitions is seen at Hsinchu Air Base in Hsinchu, Taiwan October 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu
A transport vehicle carrying missiles and various munitions is seen at Hsinchu Air Base in Hsinchu, Taiwan October 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu
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Lessons from Iran Missile Attacks for Defending against China's Advanced Arsenal

A transport vehicle carrying missiles and various munitions is seen at Hsinchu Air Base in Hsinchu, Taiwan October 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu
A transport vehicle carrying missiles and various munitions is seen at Hsinchu Air Base in Hsinchu, Taiwan October 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu

Iran's missile barrage this month against Israel, after a similar large-scale attack in April, shows the value, as well as the shortcomings, of US and allied missile defenses in a potential Indo-Pacific conflict with China, analysts say.
Although differences between the two scenarios limit the lessons that can be learnt, the nearly 400 missiles of different types that Iran has fired at Israel this year offer the United States and China some idea of what works and what does not.
For Washington, the main takeaway from Iran's Oct. 1 attacks - the largest sample yet of ballistic missiles fired against modern defenses - could be that Beijing's missiles would be more difficult to intercept than Iran's and that the ability to strike back would be needed to deter a mass attack, said Collin Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
"If we look purely through the lenses of deterrence, no longer can one pin hopes on deterrence by denial only - that is, the hope that effective defenses can blunt the efficacy of missile strikes," Koh said. "Deterrence by punishment might have to become normative going forward."
There is no immediate threat of missile conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. The distances, thousands of kilometers, are greater than in the Middle East. China's weapons are more advanced, including maneuvering warheads and precision guidance. And the target areas are scattered across the region, making a massed attack more difficult.
China's military launched a new round of war games near Taiwan on Monday, saying it was a warning to the "separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces". A Taiwan security source said there were so signs so far of any missile launches.
The United States has developed and deployed new weapons in the region this year to counter China, including the AIM-174B air-to-air missile and the ground-based Typhon missile battery in the Philippines, which can launch SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles.
The US Indo-Pacific Command and China's Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
CHINA'S MISSILES LONGER-RANGE, LESS ACCURATE
On the other hand, simply being better informed about how offensive and defensive systems perform after Iran's missile fusillades - many were intercepted - may reduce the chance of conflict, said Ankit Panda of the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"Any military force planning long-range missile strikes will need to plan around the possible effects of missile defenses," Panda said. "Of course, without clarity on how well a given missile defense system might perform, this could lead to massive escalation."
Israel's layered air and missile defenses - from its long-range Arrow systems to the Iron Dome shield meant to handle slower, less complex threats - are tailored to the threats it faces: guided ballistic missiles from powers such as Iran mixed with unguided rockets launched from just over Israel's borders.
The picture is much different in the Indo-Pacific region for the US and its allies, which use the Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Patriot, THAAD and sea-based Aegis systems for missile defense.
The accuracy of China's DF-26, its most numerous conventional intermediate-range ballistic missile, is estimated to be as good as 150 m (500 feet), according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Missile Defense Project. Its DF-21 is shorter-ranged, though some variants have an accuracy of 50 m.
Both can hit most US and allied targets in the region. The DF-26 can reach Guam, the site of major US military facilities. The Pentagon has estimated that China may have several hundred of the missiles.
By contrast, Iran's missiles such as the Fattah-1 are theoretically more accurate - within tens of meters - but are much shorter-ranged. The number of these newer missiles is not public, but US Air Force General Kenneth McKenzie told Congress last year that Iran had more than 3,000 ballistic missiles of all types.
China's capabilities outstrip Iran's in other ways, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Missile attacks would most likely be coordinated with anti-satellite strikes and cyberwarfare, both designed to complicate defense.
"Western (integrated air and missile defense) systems in the Indo-Pacific would have a much tougher time defeating a large Chinese missile strike, comprising hundreds or even thousands of missiles, compared to what the Iranians are capable of," Davis said.



Rising Seas and Shifting Sands Attack Ancient Alexandria from Below 

A view of buildings on the corniche in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, Egypt, April 20, 2025. (Reuters)
A view of buildings on the corniche in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, Egypt, April 20, 2025. (Reuters)
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Rising Seas and Shifting Sands Attack Ancient Alexandria from Below 

A view of buildings on the corniche in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, Egypt, April 20, 2025. (Reuters)
A view of buildings on the corniche in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, Egypt, April 20, 2025. (Reuters)

From her ninth-floor balcony over Alexandria's seafront, Eman Mabrouk looked down at the strip of sand that used to be the wide beach where she played as a child.

"The picture is completely different now," she said. The sea has crept closer, the concrete barriers have got longer and the buildings around her have cracked and shifted.

Every year 40 of them collapse across Egypt's second city, up from one on average a decade ago, a study shows.

The storied settlement that survived everything from bombardment by the British in the 1880s to attacks by crusaders in the 1160s is succumbing to a subtler foe infiltrating its foundations.

The warming waters of the Mediterranean are rising, part of a global phenomenon driven by climate change. In Alexandria, that is leading to coastal erosion and sending saltwater seeping through the sandy substrate, undermining buildings from below, researchers say.

"This is why we see the buildings in Alexandria being eroded from the bottom up," said Essam Heggy, a water scientist at the University of Southern California who co-wrote the study published in February describing a growing crisis in Alexandria and along the whole coast.

The combination of continuous seawater rises, ground subsidence and coastal erosion means Alexandria’s coastline has receded on average 3.5 meters a year over the last 20 years, he told Reuters.

"For many people who see that climatic change is something that will happen in the future and we don’t need to worry about it, it’s actually happening right now, right here," Heggy said.

The situation is alarming enough when set out in the report - "Soaring Building Collapses in Southern Mediterranean Coasts" in the journal "Earth's Future". For Mabrouk, 50, it has been part of day-to-day life for years.

She had to leave her last apartment when the building started moving.

"It eventually got slanted. I mean, after two years, we were all ... leaning," she told Reuters. "If you put something on the table, you would feel like it was rolling."

BARRIERS, BULLDOZERS, CRACKS

Egypt's government has acknowledged the problem and promised action. Submerged breakwaters reduce coastal wave action and truckloads of sand replenish stripped beaches.

Nine concrete sea barriers have been set up "to protect the delta and Alexandria from the impact of rising sea waves," Alexandria's governor, Ahmed Khaled Hassan, said.

The barriers stretch out to sea, piles of striking geometric shapes, their clear curves and lines standing out against the crumbling, flaking apartment blocks on the land.

Authorities are trying to get in ahead of the collapses by demolishing buildings at risk.

Around 7,500 were marked for destruction and 55,000 new housing units will be built, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly told a crowd as he stood on one of the concrete barriers on July 14.

"There isn't a day that passes without a partial or complete collapse of at least one building that already had a demolition order," Madbouly said.

Some are hopeful the measures can make a difference.

"There are no dangers now ... They have made their calculations," coffee shop owner Shady Mostafa said as he watched builders working on one of the barriers.

Others are less sure. Alexandria's 70-km (45-mile) long coastal zone was marked down as the most vulnerable in the whole Mediterranean basin in the February report.

Around 2% of the city's housing stock – or about 7,000 buildings – were probably unsafe, it added.

Every day, more people are pouring into the city - Alexandria's population has nearly doubled to about 5.8 million in the last 25 years, swollen by workers and tourists, according to Egypt's statistics agency CAPMAS. Property prices keep going up, despite all the risks, trackers show.

Sea levels are rising across the world, but they are rising faster in the Mediterranean than in many other bodies of water, partly because the relative shallowness of its sea basin means it is warming up faster.

The causes may be global, but the impacts are local, said 26-year-old Alexandria resident Ahmed al-Ashry.

"There's a change in the buildings, there's a change in the streets," he told Reuters.

"Every now and then we try to renovate the buildings, and in less than a month, the renovations start to fall apart. Our neighbors have started saying the same thing, that cracks have started to appear."