The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
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The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)

China launched fighter jets and other aircraft over the Taiwan Strait on Monday as part of military drills aimed at sending a "warning" to the self-ruled island.

Here, AFP looks at the critical waterway and growing military flashpoint:

- Where is the Taiwan Strait? -

The strait separates the southeastern Chinese province of Fujian from the main island of Taiwan, home to around 23 million people.

At its narrowest point, just 130 kilometers (about 80 miles) of windswept water separates the two major landmasses, and several outlying Taiwanese islands -- including Kinmen and Matsu -- lie just a few kilometers from the Chinese coastline.

China and Taiwan have been governed separately since Mao Zedong's communist army won a civil war and sent the opposition nationalist forces fleeing across the strait in 1949.

- Why is it important? -

The strait is a critical artery for global shipping through which a huge volume of trade passes every day.

Around $2.45 trillion of goods -- more than a fifth of global maritime trade -- transited the strait in 2022, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Taiwan plays an outsized role in the global economy thanks to producing over 90 percent of the world's most advanced computing chips, used in everything from smartphones to cutting-edge military equipment.

Analysts say a Chinese invasion would deal a catastrophic blow to these supply chains.

More minor disruptions, such as a blockade of the island, would cause costly shipping cancellations and diversions that would impact worldwide consumers.

"In the event of a long conflict over Taiwan, financial markets would tank, trade would shrivel, and supply chains would freeze, plunging the global economy into a tailspin," Robert A. Manning, a China expert at Washington's Stimson Center, wrote this year.

A report by the Rhodium Group estimated that a blockade of the island could cost firms dependent on Taiwan's chips $1.6 trillion in revenue annually.

An invasion would also endanger Taiwan's way of life, embodied by its democratic freedoms and boisterous elections.

It would also risk a wider conflict because the United States, while not recognizing Taiwan diplomatically, has an agreement to help the island defend itself.

- What has China announced? -

Beijing said that it had launched military exercises called "Joint Sword-2024B" in areas to the north, south and east of Taiwan.

The armed forces deployed fighter jets, bombers and warships in the strait, and also simulated a rocket strike, state media said.

The military also said it had deployed an aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, to "strike on maritime and ground targets in the waters and airspace to the east" of the island.

The coast guard said four fleets were conducting "inspections" around the Taiwanese mainland and disclosed other patrols near Matsu.

The drills "test the joint operations capabilities of the theater command's troops" while sending a "stern warning to the separatist acts of 'Taiwan Independence' forces", according to Chinese authorities.

Taiwan has condemned the actions as "irrational and provocative", and the US has called them "unwarranted".

- Has this happened before? -

In late May, three days after the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te, China launched Joint Sword-2024A, an apparent precursor to the latest drills.

The Chinese military also held three days of drills encircling Taiwan in April last year in response to Lai's predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, meeting with then US Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

And in 2022, Beijing launched over a week of maneuvers after McCarthy's predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan.

Several major crises punctuated the preceding decades, most recently in 1995-6, when China conducted missile tests around Taiwan.

It is not yet clear how the drills announced on Monday compare in scale and intensity to those of previous years.



Bittersweet Return for Syrians with Killed, Missing Relatives 

Syrian activist and former refugee Wafa Mustafa shows a picture of her missing father Ali on her phone after attending a demonstration in Damascus on January 1, 2025. (AFP)
Syrian activist and former refugee Wafa Mustafa shows a picture of her missing father Ali on her phone after attending a demonstration in Damascus on January 1, 2025. (AFP)
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Bittersweet Return for Syrians with Killed, Missing Relatives 

Syrian activist and former refugee Wafa Mustafa shows a picture of her missing father Ali on her phone after attending a demonstration in Damascus on January 1, 2025. (AFP)
Syrian activist and former refugee Wafa Mustafa shows a picture of her missing father Ali on her phone after attending a demonstration in Damascus on January 1, 2025. (AFP)

Wafa Mustafa had long dreamed of returning to Syria but the absence of her father tarnished her homecoming more than a decade after he disappeared in Bashar al-Assad's jails.

Her father Ali, an activist, is among the tens of thousands killed or missing in Syria's notorious prison system, and whose relatives have flocked home in search of answers after Assad's toppling last month by opposition forces.

"From December 8 until today, I have not felt any joy," said Mustafa, 35, who returned from Berlin.

"I thought that once I got to Syria, everything would be better, but in reality everything here is so very painful," she said. "I walk down the street and remember that I had passed by that same corner with my dad" years before.

Since reaching Damascus she has scoured defunct security service branches, prisons, morgues and hospitals, hoping to glean any information about her long-lost father.

"You can see the fatigue on people's faces" everywhere, said Mustafa, who works as a communications manager for the Syria Campaign, a rights group.

In 2021, she was invited to testify at the United Nations about the fate of Syria's disappeared.

The opposition who toppled Assad freed thousands of detainees nearly 14 years into a civil war that killed more than 500,000 people and displaced millions.

Mustafa returned to Branch 215, one of Syria's most notorious prisons run by military intelligence, where she herself had been detained simply for participating in pro-democracy protests in 2011.

She found documents there mentioning her father. "That's already a start," Mustafa said.

Now, she "wants the truth" and plans to continue searching for answers in Syria.

"I only dream of a grave, of having a place to go to in the morning to talk to my father," she said. "Graves have become our biggest dream".

- A demand for justice -

In Damascus, Mustafa took part in a protest demanding justice for the disappeared and answers about their fate.

Youssef Sammawi, 29, was there too. He held up a picture of his cousin, whose arrest and beating in 2012 prompted Sammawi to flee for Germany.

A few years later, he identified his cousin's corpse among the 55,000 images by a former military photographer codenamed "Caesar", who defected and made the images public.

The photos taken between 2011 and 2013, authenticated by experts, show thousands of bodies tortured and starved to death in Syrian prisons.

"The joy I felt gave way to pain when I returned home, without being able to see my cousin," Sammawi said.

He said his uncle had also been arrested and then executed after he went to see his son in the hospital.

"When I returned, it was the first time I truly realized that they were no longer there," he said with sadness in his voice.

"My relatives had gotten used to their absence, but not me," he added. "We demand that justice be served, to alleviate our suffering."

While Assad's fall allowed many to end their exile and seek answers, others are hesitant.

Fadwa Mahmoud, 70, told AFP she has had no news of her son and her husband, both opponents of the Assad government arrested upon arrival at Damascus airport in 2012.

She fled to Germany a year later and co-founded the Families For Freedom human rights group.

She said she has no plans to return to Syria just yet.

"No one really knows what might happen, so I prefer to stay cautious," she said.

Mahmoud said she was disappointed that Syria's new authorities, who pledged justice for victims of atrocities under Assad's rule, "are not yet taking these cases seriously".

She said Syria's new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa "has yet to do anything for missing Syrians", yet "met Austin Tice's mother two hours" after she arrived in the Syrian capital.

Tice is an American journalist missing in Syria since 2012.

Sharaa "did not respond" to requests from relatives of missing Syrians to meet him, Mahmoud said.

"The revolution would not have succeeded without the sacrifices of our detainees," she said.