The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
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The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)

China launched fighter jets and other aircraft over the Taiwan Strait on Monday as part of military drills aimed at sending a "warning" to the self-ruled island.

Here, AFP looks at the critical waterway and growing military flashpoint:

- Where is the Taiwan Strait? -

The strait separates the southeastern Chinese province of Fujian from the main island of Taiwan, home to around 23 million people.

At its narrowest point, just 130 kilometers (about 80 miles) of windswept water separates the two major landmasses, and several outlying Taiwanese islands -- including Kinmen and Matsu -- lie just a few kilometers from the Chinese coastline.

China and Taiwan have been governed separately since Mao Zedong's communist army won a civil war and sent the opposition nationalist forces fleeing across the strait in 1949.

- Why is it important? -

The strait is a critical artery for global shipping through which a huge volume of trade passes every day.

Around $2.45 trillion of goods -- more than a fifth of global maritime trade -- transited the strait in 2022, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Taiwan plays an outsized role in the global economy thanks to producing over 90 percent of the world's most advanced computing chips, used in everything from smartphones to cutting-edge military equipment.

Analysts say a Chinese invasion would deal a catastrophic blow to these supply chains.

More minor disruptions, such as a blockade of the island, would cause costly shipping cancellations and diversions that would impact worldwide consumers.

"In the event of a long conflict over Taiwan, financial markets would tank, trade would shrivel, and supply chains would freeze, plunging the global economy into a tailspin," Robert A. Manning, a China expert at Washington's Stimson Center, wrote this year.

A report by the Rhodium Group estimated that a blockade of the island could cost firms dependent on Taiwan's chips $1.6 trillion in revenue annually.

An invasion would also endanger Taiwan's way of life, embodied by its democratic freedoms and boisterous elections.

It would also risk a wider conflict because the United States, while not recognizing Taiwan diplomatically, has an agreement to help the island defend itself.

- What has China announced? -

Beijing said that it had launched military exercises called "Joint Sword-2024B" in areas to the north, south and east of Taiwan.

The armed forces deployed fighter jets, bombers and warships in the strait, and also simulated a rocket strike, state media said.

The military also said it had deployed an aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, to "strike on maritime and ground targets in the waters and airspace to the east" of the island.

The coast guard said four fleets were conducting "inspections" around the Taiwanese mainland and disclosed other patrols near Matsu.

The drills "test the joint operations capabilities of the theater command's troops" while sending a "stern warning to the separatist acts of 'Taiwan Independence' forces", according to Chinese authorities.

Taiwan has condemned the actions as "irrational and provocative", and the US has called them "unwarranted".

- Has this happened before? -

In late May, three days after the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te, China launched Joint Sword-2024A, an apparent precursor to the latest drills.

The Chinese military also held three days of drills encircling Taiwan in April last year in response to Lai's predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, meeting with then US Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

And in 2022, Beijing launched over a week of maneuvers after McCarthy's predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan.

Several major crises punctuated the preceding decades, most recently in 1995-6, when China conducted missile tests around Taiwan.

It is not yet clear how the drills announced on Monday compare in scale and intensity to those of previous years.



Syrians Face Horror, Fearing Loved Ones May Be in Mass Graves

People search for human remains at a trench believed to be used as a mass grave on the outskirts of Damascus - AFP
People search for human remains at a trench believed to be used as a mass grave on the outskirts of Damascus - AFP
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Syrians Face Horror, Fearing Loved Ones May Be in Mass Graves

People search for human remains at a trench believed to be used as a mass grave on the outskirts of Damascus - AFP
People search for human remains at a trench believed to be used as a mass grave on the outskirts of Damascus - AFP

After losing hope of finding his two brothers among those freed from Syrian jails, Ziad Alaywi was filled with dread, knowing there was only one place they were likely to be: a mass grave.

"We want to know where our children are, our brothers," said the 55-year-old standing by a deep trench near Najha, southeast of Damascus.

"Were they killed? Are they buried here?" he asked, pointing to the ditch, one of several believed to hold the bodies of prisoners tortured to death.

International organizations have called these acts "crimes against humanity".

Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime on December 8 and the takeover by an Islamist-led opposition alliance, families across Syria have been searching for their loved ones.

"I've looked for my brothers in all the prisons," said the driver from the Damascus suburbs, whose siblings and four cousins were arrested over a decade ago.

"I've searched all the documents that might give me a clue to their location," he added, but it was all in vain.

Residents say there are at least three other similar sites, where diggers were frequently seen working in areas once off-limits under the former government.

- 'Peace of mind' -

The dirt at the pit where Alaywi stands looks loose, freshly dug. Children run and play nearby.

If the site was investigated, "it would allow many people to have peace of mind and stop hoping for the return of a son who will never return", he said.

"It's not just one, two, or three people who are being sought. It's thousands."

He called on international forensic investigators to "open these mass graves so we can finally know where our children are."

Many Syrians who spoke to AFP in recent days expressed disappointment at not finding their loved ones in the prisons opened after the takeover by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

A few kilometres (miles) from Najha, a team of about 10 people, most in white overalls, was transferring small white bags into larger black ones with numbers.

Syrian Civil Defense teams have received numerous calls from people claiming to have seen cars dumping bags by the roadside at night. The bags were later found to contain bones.

"Since the fall of the regime, we've received over 100 calls about mass graves. People believe every military site has one," said civil defence official Omar al-Salmo.

- Safeguard evidence -

The claim isn't without reason, said Salmo, considering "the few people who've left prisons and the exponential number of missing people."

There are no official figures on how many detainees have been released from Syrian jails in the past 10 days, but estimates fall far short of the number missing since 2011.

In 2022, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor estimated that more than 100,000 people had died in prison, mostly due to torture, since the war began.

"We're doing our best with our modest expertise," said Salmo. His team is collecting bone samples for DNA tests.

On Tuesday, Human Rights Watch urged the new Syrian authorities to "secure, collect and safeguard evidence, including from mass grave sites and government records... that will be vital in future criminal trials".

The rights group also called for cooperation with the International Committee of the Red Cross, which could "provide critical expertise" to help safeguard the records and clarify the fate of missing people.

Days after Assad's fall, HRW teams visiting Damascus's Tadamun district, the site of a massacre in April 2013, found "scores of human remains".

In Daraa province, Mohammad Khaled regained control of his farm in Izraa, seized for years by military intelligence.

"I noticed that the ground was uneven," said Khaled.

"We were surprised to discover a body, then another," he said. In just one day, he and others including a forensic doctor exhumed a total of 22 bodies.