Netanyahu Faces Pressure to End Fighting in Gaza after Killing of Sinwar

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 79th United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York, US, September 27, 2024. (Reuters)
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 79th United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York, US, September 27, 2024. (Reuters)
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Netanyahu Faces Pressure to End Fighting in Gaza after Killing of Sinwar

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 79th United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York, US, September 27, 2024. (Reuters)
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 79th United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York, US, September 27, 2024. (Reuters)

The killing of Israel's most wanted enemy Yahya Sinwar has been hailed as vindication for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but in a country weary after a year of war it also raises pressure on him to end the fighting and save the hostages still in Gaza.

Netanyahu himself described Sinwar's death as "the beginning of the end" to a conflict that has spread to Lebanon and Yemen, and said it could end if Hamas lays down its arms and return the 101 Israeli and foreign hostages held in Gaza.

With Sinwar joining a growing list of Palestinian and Lebanese militant leaders killed by Israel over recent months, the fear that a deal would reward the architect of the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks on Israel has gone.

"I think what we have now is an opportunity to use this moment in Gaza to close the front in Gaza," said Shira Efron, Senior Director of Policy Research at the pro-Israel Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation.

"I mean, you need to remember that this goes into the kishka (the guts) of Israeli society, they've avenged the mastermind Sinwar," she said.

Yet it remains unclear how Hamas will respond to the death of their leader, filmed by an Israeli drone sitting badly wounded in a ruined building in Gaza before his body was recovered and taken to Israel for tests that confirmed his identity.

On Friday, the deputy head of Hamas Khalil Al-Hayya said Israeli hostages would not be returned until Israeli "aggression" ended and its forces withdrew.

Some of Netanyahu's hardline political allies, including his Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, said Israel should not stop before the "complete surrender" of Hamas.

But with the White House talking about a potential "inflection point" in the war, even many supporters of Israel's hitherto uncompromising approach said there was an opportunity to end the fighting.

"I think Netanyahu said the right thing last night. Give us the hostages and - when everyone, the hostages, will return - we'll leave," said Erez Goldman, a Jerusalem resident, as he absorbed the news the following day.

A significant section of Israeli opinion, including Netanyahu, has always maintained that the only way to achieve peace is by inflicting military defeats on their enemies, even if that comes at the cost of upsetting their allies.

Sinwar's death was seen by many as vindication of Israel's refusal to bow to international pressure earlier this year not to send ground troops into the city of Rafah, which was at the time the refuge for more than a million Palestinians displaced by the fighting.

"This is the first thing that came to mind when Sinwar was taken out in Rafah," one senior official said on Friday.

Netanyahu has resisted pressure for months from families of the hostages and from world leaders, including US President Joe Biden, to agree a ceasefire deal in Gaza. There were more such calls on Friday.

'OFF-RAMP'

Netanyahu's political fortunes, at rock-bottom last year in the aftermath of the bloodiest day in Israel's history, have revived steadily since, particularly as a series of militant leaders have been assassinated.

Mohammed Deif, Hamas' longstanding military commander, was killed in Gaza in July and in the same month, the movement's political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran.

Two months later Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in Beirut, one of a string of leaders from the Iranian-backed group killed in a wave of Israeli airstrikes.

The addition of Sinwar to the list could give Netanyahu a potential "off-ramp" from Gaza, said Carmiel Arbit, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

"But Sinwar's death alone does not guarantee the circumstances necessary for Netanyahu to declare an end to the war as so many hope," she said.

Hostage families feel that after ceasefire talks apparently ran into the sand weeks ago, there is no time to waste. "It's an opportunity that we might not have again," said Daniel Lifshitz, whose grandfather Oded Lifshitz is still held in Gaza.

Much will depend on who succeeds Sinwar, whose death in combat was hailed by many Palestinians as a heroic act of defiance against Israel that should inspire further resistance.

Israel has said it must maintain security control over Gaza when combat operations end. But it has otherwise not revealed any detailed ideas for running the enclave beyond rejecting any role for Hamas or the Palestinian Authority.

After a year of war, the enclave is in ruins, with more than 42,000 Palestinians dead and most of the population displaced. Reconstruction will take years, requiring billions of dollars and heavy international support.

On the Israeli side, after Hamas-led gunmen stormed into Israel on Oct 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages, few are willing to trust Hamas even if Sinwar is gone.

But even the chairperson of Kibbutz Be'eri, a community close to the Gaza Strip that lost one in 10 of its population on Oct 7, said the chance offered by Sinwar's death should be taken.

"There is an opportunity," said Amit Solvi. "And Israel has to take this opportunity in both hands. And evolve that into a diplomatic agreement."



Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
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Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

The UN nuclear agency has confirmed that Iran plans to install around 6,000 new centrifuges to enrich uranium, according to a report seen by AFP on Friday.

“Iran informed the Agency that it intended to feed” around 6,000 centrifuges at its sites in Fordo and Natanz to enrich uranium to up to five percent, higher than the 3.67 percent limit Tehran had agreed to in 2015.

The Iranian decision came in response to a resolution adopted on November 21 by the UN nuclear watchdog that censures Tehran for what the agency called lack of cooperation.

On Thursday, Iran had threatened to end its ban on acquiring nuclear weapons if Western sanctions are reimposed.

The country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in an interview that the nuclear debate inside Iran is likely to shift towards the possession of its own weapons if the west goes ahead with a threat to reimpose all UN sanctions,

What are centrifuges?

They are precise devices with cylinders that rotate much faster than the speed of sound, to collect enriched uranium atoms.

To explain how centrifugation works, rotating cylinders are much like medical laboratory equipment used to test blood.

The high rotation speeds exert a rotational force that separates the various components of blood as a function of their density and quantity in the sample.

In the case of uranium, the centrifuge operates using the familiar principle of centrifugal force. This force separates two gases of unequal masses in a spinning cylinder or tube. The heavier uranium-238 isotope collects at the outer edges of the cylinder while the lighter uranium-235 collects near the axis of rotation at the center.

Around 20 kg of uranium enriched to a 90% purity level would be needed for a single nuclear weapon. It would take about 1,500 SWU to produce a weapon-equivalent of 90 percent-enriched uranium from this enriched uranium.

At Fordo, Iran is currently using the two only operating cascades of IR-6 centrifuges there to enrich to 60% from 20%.

There are 1,044 centrifuges active at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said.

He had earlier asked the Iran Atomic Energy Agency to begin inserting uranium gas into newly activated advanced centrifuges.

Early this month, a spokesperson for the US State Department said Iran's expansion of uranium enrichment activities in defiance of key nuclear commitments is "a big step in the wrong direction”.

His statement came after Tehran announced it would start injecting uranium gas into centrifuges at Fordo.

Dispute

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 2015 between Tehran and Western countries, says advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment could operate until January 2027.

The difference between the first generation of centrifuges (IR-1) and the other generations is speed. The latest generation, IR-6, could enrich uranium up to 10 times faster than the first-generation IR-1, according to Iranian officials.

During the heyday of its nuclear program, Iran operated a total of 10,204 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz and Fordo facilities. But under the deal, Iran's commitments included operating no more than 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges for a period of 10 years.

Although the centrifuges that Iran installed before the 2015 nuclear deal were of the first generation, Tehran’s recent uranium enrichment activity at nuclear sites has reached disturbingly advanced levels, potentially increasing the nuclear proliferation risk.

Major centrifuge activities in Iran

May 2008: Iran installed several centrifuges including more modern models.

March 2012: Iranian media announced 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz.

August 2012: The International Atomic Energy Agency announced that Iran had installed large parts of the centrifuges at Fordo.

November 2012: An IAEA report confirmed that all advanced centrifuges had been installed at Fordo, although there were only four working centrifuges, and another four fully equipped, vacuum tested, and ready to go.

February 2013: IAEA says Iran has operated 12,699 IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz site.

June 2018: Iran’s supreme leader revealed Tuesday that it ultimately wants 190,000 nuclear centrifuges — a figure 30 times higher than world powers allowed under the 2015 deal.

September 2019: Iran mounted 22 IR-4, one IR-5, 30 IR-6, and three IR-6 for testing, outside the treaty boundaries.

September 2019: Iran announced it started operating advanced and fast centrifuges to enrich uranium.

November 2024: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces that his country will operate several thousand advanced centrifuges.

November 2024: Iranian state television broadcasts AEOI Chief Mohammad Eslami announcing that “gasification of a few thousands of new generation centrifuges has been started.”