Iran and Israel's Open Warfare after Decades of Shadow War

A general view of Tehran after several explosions were heard, in Tehran, Iran, October 26, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
A general view of Tehran after several explosions were heard, in Tehran, Iran, October 26, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
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Iran and Israel's Open Warfare after Decades of Shadow War

A general view of Tehran after several explosions were heard, in Tehran, Iran, October 26, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
A general view of Tehran after several explosions were heard, in Tehran, Iran, October 26, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Israel said its strikes against Iran on Saturday were in retaliation for Tehran's strikes on Israel on Oct. 1, the latest exchange in an escalating conflict between the arch-rivals.

This was the latest in a wider escalation since the war in Gaza began last year, but Israeli-Iranian enmity stretches back decades through a history of clandestine wars and attacks by land, sea, air and cyberspace.

According to Reuters, following is a timeline of key events:

1979 - Iran's pro-Western leader, Mohammed Reza Shah, who regarded Israel as an ally, is swept from power in a Revolution that installs a new Shiite theocratic regime with opposition to Israel an ideological imperative.

1982 - As Israel invades Lebanon, Iran's Revolutionary Guards work with fellow Shiites there to set up Hezbollah. Israel will eventually see the group as the most dangerous adversary on its borders.
1983 - Iran-backed Hezbollah uses suicide bombings to expel Western and Israeli forces from Lebanon. In November a car packed with explosives drives into the Lebanon headquarters of Israel's military. Israel later withdraws from much of Lebanon.

1992-94 - Argentina and Israel accuse Iran and Hezbollah of orchestrating suicide bombings at Israel's embassy in Buenos Aires in 1992 and a Jewish center in the city in 1994, each of which killed dozens of people.
Iran and Hezbollah deny responsibility.

2002 - A disclosure that Iran has a secret program to enrich uranium stirs concern that it is trying to build a nuclear bomb in violation of its non-proliferation treaty commitments, which it denies. Israel urges tough action against Iran.

2006 - Israel fights Hezbollah in a month-long war in Lebanon but is unable to crush the heavily armed group, and the conflict ends in effective stalemate.

2009 - In a speech, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei calls Israel "a dangerous and fatal cancer.”

2010 - Stuxnet, a malicious computer virus widely believed to have been developed by the US and Israel, is used to attack a uranium enrichment facility at Iran's Natanz nuclear site. It is the first publicly known cyberattack on industrial machinery.

2012 - Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan is killed by a bomb placed on his car by a motorcyclist in Tehran. A city official blames Israel for the attack.

2018 - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hails President Donald Trump's withdrawal of the US from Iran's nuclear deal with world powers after years of lobbying against the agreement, calling Trump's decision "a historic move.”

In May Israel says it hit Iranian military infrastructure in Syria - where Tehran has been backing President Bashar al-Assad in the civil war - after Iranian forces there fired rockets at the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

2020 - Israel welcomes the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the overseas arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, in an American drone strike in Baghdad. Iran strikes back with missile attacks on Iraqi bases housing American troops. About 100 US military personnel are injured.

2021 - Iran blames Israel for the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, viewed by Western intelligence services as the mastermind of a covert Iranian program to develop nuclear weapons capability. Tehran has long denied any such ambition.

2022 - US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid sign a joint pledge to deny Iran nuclear arms in a show of unity by allies long divided over diplomacy with Tehran.

The undertaking, part of a "Jerusalem Declaration" crowning Biden's first visit to Israel as president, comes a day after he tells a local TV station he is open to a "last resort" use of force against Iran - an apparent move toward accommodating Israeli calls for a "credible military threat" by world powers.

April 2024 - A suspected Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus kills seven Revolutionary Guards officers, including two senior commanders. Israel neither confirms nor denies responsibility.

Iran responds with a barrage of drones and missiles in an unprecedented direct attack on Israeli territory on April 13. This prompts Israel to launch a strike on Iranian soil on April 19, sources familiar with the matter say.

Oct. 1, 2024 - Iran fires over 180 missiles at Israel in what it calls revenge for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 27 in an airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs, and the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran's capital on July 31.

Oct. 26, 2024 - Israel strikes military sites in Iran, saying it was retaliating against Tehran's attacks earlier in the month. Iranian media reports explosions over several hours in Tehran and at nearby military bases. Iran reports "limited damage" to some locations.



The Unsinkable Donald Trump

Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
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The Unsinkable Donald Trump

Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)

He was impeached twice, found liable in fraud and sexual abuse lawsuits, convicted of dozens of felonies and has been declared politically dead again and again -- but count Donald Trump out at your peril.

With just over a week to go until his third presidential election -- and a little over three months after he was literally shot at -- the Republican tycoon's political stamina is as robust as ever.

The 78-year-old has emerged from a summer of missteps and a lurch into authoritarian rhetoric with better odds of securing a second White House term than at any point since that July assassination attempt in a field in Pennsylvania.

Trump detractors have watched the unforced errors in his 2024 campaign with a mix of delight, frustration and bewilderment as the man whose downfall has long been predicted has managed to keep his supporters on board.

Depending on who you ask, Trump's biggest fumbles have been a divisive vice-presidential pick, a laissez-faire attitude to his daily campaign work and an excessive focus on outgoing president Biden.

Trump's own words have, as ever, been extraordinary -- from wild conspiracy theories about immigrants eating people's pets and lies about hurricanes to authoritarian threats of revenge against his opponents.

- Secret sauce -

And then there's what Democrats have labelled the "weird" stuff -- the personal insults and name-calling, rambling interviews and rally speeches, and a campaign event that ended with Trump swaying onstage to music for 40 minutes.

The oldest major-party presidential candidate ever, Trump is out on bail in two criminal cases that could mean him seeing out his days in jail and in theory he is due to be sentenced in a third just after the election.

And yet the race remains a toss-up, with a trend line moving incrementally in Trump's favor that suggests he is weathering Democratic rival Kamala Harris's warnings that he is unfit for office.

For some analysts, Trump's secret sauce is his ability to play the part of the heroic outsider -- targeted by corrupt elites for his insurgent campaign to shake up politics on behalf of the forgotten millions.

Political consultant Andrew Koneschusky sees four planks to Trump's campaign -- an appeal to rudderless young men, exploitation of anger over inflation, the weaponization of race and gender and the scapegoating of immigrants.

"Trump's campaign strategy relies heavily on tapping into negative emotions, which typically register more strongly than positive ones," said the analyst, a former press secretary to Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer.

"In some cases, this is distasteful or revolting. For some voters it might also be effective."

- 'Avenging angel' -

Donald Nieman, a political analyst and professor at Binghamton University in New York state, believes Trump's unorthodox conduct -- the "rants, conspiracy theories, vulgarities, unvarnished racist and sexist attacks" -- thrill a base that sees Trump as their "avenging angel."

"Many others hold their noses and support him because they believe he will be better on issues they care about -- the economy, immigration, abortion," Nieman said.

Dubbed "Teflon Don" by US headline writers, Trump has a salesman's instinct for self-publicity, honed in his days as a brash 1980s New York developer trying to force his way into the celebrity gossip columns.

And while liberals and much of the media look at Trump's unorthodox, freewheeling style -- his rally speeches about windmills and fictional serial killers -- as disqualifying, his fans see authenticity.

Utah-based political analyst and PR expert Adrienne Uthe believes Trump and his base share an emotional connection missing in most political campaigns, as he taps into their patriotism, distrust of the media and fear of losing their culture.

"His supporters see him as a champion against what they perceive as a corrupt establishment. Despite controversies, Trump frames himself as a fighter, unyielding in the face of opposition," she told AFP.

"Many of his followers admire this resilience, viewing him as someone who defends their values and disrupts a political system they believe has ignored them for decades."