Kamala Harris: Can Underestimated Trailblazer Beat Trump?

 US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris steps off Air Force Two at Joint Base in Maryland on October 27, 2024. (AFP)
US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris steps off Air Force Two at Joint Base in Maryland on October 27, 2024. (AFP)
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Kamala Harris: Can Underestimated Trailblazer Beat Trump?

 US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris steps off Air Force Two at Joint Base in Maryland on October 27, 2024. (AFP)
US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris steps off Air Force Two at Joint Base in Maryland on October 27, 2024. (AFP)

The call that upended everything for Kamala Harris came on a Sunday morning in July as the US vice president did a jigsaw puzzle at home with her grand-nieces.

"The phone rings, and it´s Joe," Harris told radio host Howard Stern recently. "I got up to take the call -- and then life changed."

President Joe Biden's revelation that he was going to drop out of the 2024 White House race and endorse Harris as the Democratic nominee triggered one of the most remarkable transformations in American politics.

Harris was previously saddled with record low approval ratings for a "veep."

Within a few short weeks she created an election campaign out of nothing. She held rapturous rallies, raised more than $1 billion in funds and brought what she called a burst of joy to a party that had given up hope.

But with the now polls showing the 60-year-old in a dead heat with Republican former president Donald Trump, Harris is in the fight of her life to win on November 5 and become the first female president in US history.

"It's not easy. Usually people run for president for two years, and she's just been running since late July," David Karol, who teaches government and politics at the University of Maryland, told AFP.

- Difficult debut -

Harris was a trailblazer from the moment she entered the White House as America's first female, Black and South Asian vice president.

Yet the trail proved difficult at first. Harris faced withering criticism that she was not up to the job of being a heartbeat from the presidency.

Already criticized for vagueness on policy during a failed presidential run against Biden in 2019, she increasingly became notorious -- like Biden himself -- for "word salads."

Tasked by Biden with getting to the roots of the country´s illegal migration problem, Harris fumbled and granted Republicans an attack line about being a failed "border czar" that they use to this day.

But things began to change in 2022. Harris found her voice when the US Supreme Court overturned the federal right to abortion.

She rallied around the country on the issue and took on an increasingly prominent role in Biden´s second presidential campaign -- with officials privately admitting she was gearing up for her own presidential run in 2028.

Biden also increasingly tasked her with diplomatic missions on Ukraine and the Middle East.

But few dreamed that the moment for her to take a tilt at the White House would come so soon.

Partly that was because Harris had long been underestimated, by some Democrats and by Republicans alike.

Trump would soon find that the woman he called "crazy" and subjected to sexist and racist taunts was a force to be reckoned with. In their only debate she gained the upper hand by taunting the former president.

- 'Momala' -

Harris, however has deliberately steered away from overtly leaning into her race or her gender during the campaign.

When she does talk about her personal background it has largely been about her Indian-born mother who raised her and her sister alone -- while her Jamaican-born father rarely gets a mention.

Or there's her very public affection for "Second Gentleman" Doug Emhoff.

Famously his children Cole and Emma, who are now her stepchildren, dubbed her "Momala."

She has also used their relationship to call out Trump's running mate J.D. Vance for previously describing top Democrats as "childless cat ladies."

But it is more common to hear her focus on her professional history as a prosecutor and then as California attorney general -- and contrasting herself with Trump, who's bidding to become the first convicted felon in the Oval Office.

Harris has also repeatedly brought up the fact that's she's a gun owner, as she reaches out to Republican voters.

Yet there have also been familiar weaknesses. She remains uncomfortable with the media, and her failure to sit for any interviews for several weeks mid-campaign drew Republican fire.

The question now is whether she can put the puzzle together and shatter America's highest glass ceiling.

"I think she has run a good campaign. And if she loses, some people will say 'oh, that's because she didn't run a good campaign' -- and I think that's wrong," said Karol.



Iran Faces Tough Choices in Deciding How to Respond to Israeli Strikes

This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows damaged buildings at Iran's Khojir military base outside of Tehran, Iran, Oct. 8, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows damaged buildings at Iran's Khojir military base outside of Tehran, Iran, Oct. 8, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
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Iran Faces Tough Choices in Deciding How to Respond to Israeli Strikes

This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows damaged buildings at Iran's Khojir military base outside of Tehran, Iran, Oct. 8, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows damaged buildings at Iran's Khojir military base outside of Tehran, Iran, Oct. 8, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)

It's Iran's move now.
How Iran chooses to respond to the unusually public Israeli aerial assault on its homeland could determine whether the region spirals further toward all-out war or holds steady at an already devastating and destabilizing level of violence.
In the coldly calculating realm of Middle East geopolitics, a strike of the magnitude that Israel delivered Saturday would typically be met with a forceful response. A likely option would be another round of the ballistic missile barrages that Iran has already launched twice this year, The Associated Press said.
Retaliating militarily would allow Iran's clerical leadership to show strength not only to its own citizens but also to Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon's Hezbollah, the militant groups battling Israel that are the vanguard of Tehran's so-called Axis of Resistance.
It is too soon to say whether Iran's leadership will follow that path.
Tehran may decide against forcefully retaliating directly for now, not least because doing so might reveal its weaknesses and invite a more potent Israeli response, analysts say.
“Iran will play down the impact of the strikes, which are in fact quite serious,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based think tank Chatham House.
She said Iran is “boxed in" by military and economic constraints, and the uncertainty caused by the US election and its impact on American policy in the region.
Even while the Mideast wars rage, Iran's reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has been signaling his nation wants a new nuclear deal with the US to ease crushing international sanctions.
A carefully worded statement from Iran’s military Saturday night appeared to offer some wiggle room for Iran to back away from further escalation. It suggested that a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon was more important than any retaliation against Israel.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran's ultimate decision-maker, was also measured in his first comments on the strike Sunday. He said the attack “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed,” and he stopped short of calling for an immediate military response.
Saturday's strikes targeted Iranian air defense missile batteries and missile production facilities, according to the Israeli military.
With that, Israel has exposed vulnerabilities in Iran’s air defenses and can now more easily step up its attacks, analysts say.
Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press indicate Israel's raid damaged facilities at the Parchin military base southeast of Tehran that experts previously linked to Iran's onetime nuclear weapons program and another base tied to its ballistic missile program.
Current nuclear sites were not struck, however. Rafael Mariano Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, confirmed that on X, saying “Iran’s nuclear facilities have not been impacted.”
Israel has been aggressively bringing the fight to the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah, killing its leader and targeting operatives in an audacious exploding pager attack.
“Any Iranian attempt to retaliate will have to contend with the fact that Hezbollah, its most important ally against Israel, has been significantly degraded and its conventional weapons systems have twice been largely repelled,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, who expects Iran to hold its fire for now.
That's true even if Israel held back, as appears to be the case. Some prominent figures in Israel, such as opposition leader Yair Lapid, are already saying the attacks didn't go far enough.
Regional experts suggested that Israel's relatively limited target list was intentionally calibrated to make it easier for Iran to back away from escalation.
As Yoel Guzansky, who formerly worked for Israel’s National Security Council and is now a researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, put it: Israel's decision to focus on purely military targets allows Iran "to save face.”
Israel's target choices may also be a reflection at least in part of its capabilities. It is unlikely to be able to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities on its own and would require help from the United States, Guzansky said.
Besides, Israel still has leverage to go after higher-value targets should Iran retaliate — particularly now that nodes in its air defenses have been destroyed.
“You preserve for yourself all kinds of contingency plans,” Guzansky said.
Thomas Juneau, a University of Ottawa professor focused on Iran and the wider Middle East, wrote on X that the fact Iranian media initially downplayed the strikes suggests Tehran may want to avoid further escalation. Yet it's caught in a tough spot.
“If it retaliates, it risks an escalation in which its weakness means it loses more,” he wrote. “If it does not retaliate, it projects a signal of weakness.”
Vakil agreed that Iran's response was likely to be muted and that the strikes were designed to minimize the potential for escalation.
“Israel has yet again shown its military precision and capabilities are far superior to that of Iran,” she said.
One thing is certain: The Mideast is in uncharted territory.
For decades, leaders and strategists in the region have speculated about whether and how Israel might one day openly strike Iran, just as they wondered what direct attacks by Iran, rather than by its proxy militant groups, would look like.
Today, it's a reality. Yet the playbook on either side isn't clear, and may still be being written.
“There appears to be a major mismatch both in terms of the sword each side wields and the shield it can deploy,” Vaez said.
“While both sides have calibrated and calculated how quickly they climb the escalation ladder, they are in an entirely new territory now, where the new red lines are nebulous and the old ones have turned pink,” he said.