Iranians Fear Trump Comeback will Bring Them More Pain

A woman walks past the former US embassy compound in Tehran, which has skulls embedded in the wall - AFP
A woman walks past the former US embassy compound in Tehran, which has skulls embedded in the wall - AFP
TT

Iranians Fear Trump Comeback will Bring Them More Pain

A woman walks past the former US embassy compound in Tehran, which has skulls embedded in the wall - AFP
A woman walks past the former US embassy compound in Tehran, which has skulls embedded in the wall - AFP

When Donald Trump was last in the White House, he pursued a policy of "maximum pressure" against Iran, including punishing sanctions.

Now that he is set to begin another term as US president in January, anxiety is mounting in Tehran that more of the same will follow.

During Trump's first term, the United States also killed a revered Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general in an airstrike on Baghdad airport in Iraq.
"It will be harmful for Iran," said 37-year-old Bashir Abbaspour, who works at a private company, reflecting widespread concern in Iran as news broke on Wednesday of Trump's victory.

His win came with the Middle East in turmoil after the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, triggered by the unprecedented attack by Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas on Israel.

Iranians best remember Trump for his campaign of intensified sanctions and Washington's 2018 withdrawal from a landmark nuclear deal that offered Tehran sanctions relief in return for curbs on its nuclear ambitions.

The deal's collapse took a toll on ordinary Iranians grappling with galloping inflation and a sharp depreciation of the rial against the US dollar.

"The sanctions will increase, and with that, the prices will too. It's not a good thing for Iran," Abbaspour said of Trump's comeback.

Washington officially broke off relations with Tehran a year after the Islamic revolution in 1979, and ties have been frozen ever since.

- 'No difference' -

On Wednesday, the conservative Jam-e Jam newspaper featured front-page pictures of the two main US candidates, the Republican Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, with two demons depicted looming behind them.

"The result of the US elections will make no difference for us," read the daily's main headline, citing Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Reza Aram, a 51-year-old insurance agent, agreed. He said Washington's attitude towards Iran "won't change", regardless of who is president there.

"Iran's relations (with the US) will be the same (with Trump) as with Democrats," he said.

President Masoud Pezeshkian, who took office in Iran in July, has said he sought to shore up ties with West and revive the nuclear deal and end Iran's isolation.

But in recent weeks, Araghchi has said indirect nuclear talks with the United States have stopped because of regional tensions.

On October 1, Iran fired around 200 missiles at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran-backed militant leaders including Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and a Revolutionary Guards commander.

In April, in its first ever direct assault on Israeli territory, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles in response to a deadly strike on its consulate in Damascus, which it blamed on Israel.

- 'Under pressure' -

During Trump's first term, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in all matters of state, called him "unbalanced" and "foul-mouthed" as he addressed laughing crowds in Tehran.

When in 2020 Trump ordered the killing of Iran's esteemed IRGC general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, Tehran responded by attacking bases housing US troops in Iraq.

In the months leading up to Tuesday's vote in the United States, American officials charged that Iran was attempting to interfere in the elections, and Trump accused Tehran of posing "big threats" to his life.

On July 13, after a gunman wounded Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, US media reported that authorities had received intelligence about an alleged Iranian plot against him.

Iran roundly denied the accusations as "malicious".

Now, with Trump due to be back in office soon and with memories of his previous term still fresh, Iranians find themselves left with little but hope for better days ahead.

"I'm worried right now about the situation of the country and its economy," said 56-year-old Zahra Eghbali. "People are under pressure."

"Both sides should come to an agreement that is to the benefit of the people."



Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
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Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

The UN nuclear agency has confirmed that Iran plans to install around 6,000 new centrifuges to enrich uranium, according to a report seen by AFP on Friday.

“Iran informed the Agency that it intended to feed” around 6,000 centrifuges at its sites in Fordo and Natanz to enrich uranium to up to five percent, higher than the 3.67 percent limit Tehran had agreed to in 2015.

The Iranian decision came in response to a resolution adopted on November 21 by the UN nuclear watchdog that censures Tehran for what the agency called lack of cooperation.

On Thursday, Iran had threatened to end its ban on acquiring nuclear weapons if Western sanctions are reimposed.

The country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in an interview that the nuclear debate inside Iran is likely to shift towards the possession of its own weapons if the west goes ahead with a threat to reimpose all UN sanctions,

What are centrifuges?

They are precise devices with cylinders that rotate much faster than the speed of sound, to collect enriched uranium atoms.

To explain how centrifugation works, rotating cylinders are much like medical laboratory equipment used to test blood.

The high rotation speeds exert a rotational force that separates the various components of blood as a function of their density and quantity in the sample.

In the case of uranium, the centrifuge operates using the familiar principle of centrifugal force. This force separates two gases of unequal masses in a spinning cylinder or tube. The heavier uranium-238 isotope collects at the outer edges of the cylinder while the lighter uranium-235 collects near the axis of rotation at the center.

Around 20 kg of uranium enriched to a 90% purity level would be needed for a single nuclear weapon. It would take about 1,500 SWU to produce a weapon-equivalent of 90 percent-enriched uranium from this enriched uranium.

At Fordo, Iran is currently using the two only operating cascades of IR-6 centrifuges there to enrich to 60% from 20%.

There are 1,044 centrifuges active at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said.

He had earlier asked the Iran Atomic Energy Agency to begin inserting uranium gas into newly activated advanced centrifuges.

Early this month, a spokesperson for the US State Department said Iran's expansion of uranium enrichment activities in defiance of key nuclear commitments is "a big step in the wrong direction”.

His statement came after Tehran announced it would start injecting uranium gas into centrifuges at Fordo.

Dispute

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 2015 between Tehran and Western countries, says advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment could operate until January 2027.

The difference between the first generation of centrifuges (IR-1) and the other generations is speed. The latest generation, IR-6, could enrich uranium up to 10 times faster than the first-generation IR-1, according to Iranian officials.

During the heyday of its nuclear program, Iran operated a total of 10,204 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz and Fordo facilities. But under the deal, Iran's commitments included operating no more than 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges for a period of 10 years.

Although the centrifuges that Iran installed before the 2015 nuclear deal were of the first generation, Tehran’s recent uranium enrichment activity at nuclear sites has reached disturbingly advanced levels, potentially increasing the nuclear proliferation risk.

Major centrifuge activities in Iran

May 2008: Iran installed several centrifuges including more modern models.

March 2012: Iranian media announced 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz.

August 2012: The International Atomic Energy Agency announced that Iran had installed large parts of the centrifuges at Fordo.

November 2012: An IAEA report confirmed that all advanced centrifuges had been installed at Fordo, although there were only four working centrifuges, and another four fully equipped, vacuum tested, and ready to go.

February 2013: IAEA says Iran has operated 12,699 IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz site.

June 2018: Iran’s supreme leader revealed Tuesday that it ultimately wants 190,000 nuclear centrifuges — a figure 30 times higher than world powers allowed under the 2015 deal.

September 2019: Iran mounted 22 IR-4, one IR-5, 30 IR-6, and three IR-6 for testing, outside the treaty boundaries.

September 2019: Iran announced it started operating advanced and fast centrifuges to enrich uranium.

November 2024: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces that his country will operate several thousand advanced centrifuges.

November 2024: Iranian state television broadcasts AEOI Chief Mohammad Eslami announcing that “gasification of a few thousands of new generation centrifuges has been started.”