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Iranians Fear Trump Comeback will Bring Them More Pain

A woman walks past the former US embassy compound in Tehran, which has skulls embedded in the wall - AFP
A woman walks past the former US embassy compound in Tehran, which has skulls embedded in the wall - AFP
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Iranians Fear Trump Comeback will Bring Them More Pain

A woman walks past the former US embassy compound in Tehran, which has skulls embedded in the wall - AFP
A woman walks past the former US embassy compound in Tehran, which has skulls embedded in the wall - AFP

When Donald Trump was last in the White House, he pursued a policy of "maximum pressure" against Iran, including punishing sanctions.

Now that he is set to begin another term as US president in January, anxiety is mounting in Tehran that more of the same will follow.

During Trump's first term, the United States also killed a revered Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general in an airstrike on Baghdad airport in Iraq.
"It will be harmful for Iran," said 37-year-old Bashir Abbaspour, who works at a private company, reflecting widespread concern in Iran as news broke on Wednesday of Trump's victory.

His win came with the Middle East in turmoil after the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, triggered by the unprecedented attack by Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas on Israel.

Iranians best remember Trump for his campaign of intensified sanctions and Washington's 2018 withdrawal from a landmark nuclear deal that offered Tehran sanctions relief in return for curbs on its nuclear ambitions.

The deal's collapse took a toll on ordinary Iranians grappling with galloping inflation and a sharp depreciation of the rial against the US dollar.

"The sanctions will increase, and with that, the prices will too. It's not a good thing for Iran," Abbaspour said of Trump's comeback.

Washington officially broke off relations with Tehran a year after the Islamic revolution in 1979, and ties have been frozen ever since.

- 'No difference' -

On Wednesday, the conservative Jam-e Jam newspaper featured front-page pictures of the two main US candidates, the Republican Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, with two demons depicted looming behind them.

"The result of the US elections will make no difference for us," read the daily's main headline, citing Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Reza Aram, a 51-year-old insurance agent, agreed. He said Washington's attitude towards Iran "won't change", regardless of who is president there.

"Iran's relations (with the US) will be the same (with Trump) as with Democrats," he said.

President Masoud Pezeshkian, who took office in Iran in July, has said he sought to shore up ties with West and revive the nuclear deal and end Iran's isolation.

But in recent weeks, Araghchi has said indirect nuclear talks with the United States have stopped because of regional tensions.

On October 1, Iran fired around 200 missiles at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran-backed militant leaders including Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and a Revolutionary Guards commander.

In April, in its first ever direct assault on Israeli territory, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles in response to a deadly strike on its consulate in Damascus, which it blamed on Israel.

- 'Under pressure' -

During Trump's first term, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in all matters of state, called him "unbalanced" and "foul-mouthed" as he addressed laughing crowds in Tehran.

When in 2020 Trump ordered the killing of Iran's esteemed IRGC general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, Tehran responded by attacking bases housing US troops in Iraq.

In the months leading up to Tuesday's vote in the United States, American officials charged that Iran was attempting to interfere in the elections, and Trump accused Tehran of posing "big threats" to his life.

On July 13, after a gunman wounded Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, US media reported that authorities had received intelligence about an alleged Iranian plot against him.

Iran roundly denied the accusations as "malicious".

Now, with Trump due to be back in office soon and with memories of his previous term still fresh, Iranians find themselves left with little but hope for better days ahead.

"I'm worried right now about the situation of the country and its economy," said 56-year-old Zahra Eghbali. "People are under pressure."

"Both sides should come to an agreement that is to the benefit of the people."

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Lebanon's Army Chief Joseph Aoun, a Man with a Tough Mission

Lebanon's Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun attends a cabinet meeting in Beirut on November 27, 2024, to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP
Lebanon's Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun attends a cabinet meeting in Beirut on November 27, 2024, to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP
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Lebanon's Army Chief Joseph Aoun, a Man with a Tough Mission

Lebanon's Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun attends a cabinet meeting in Beirut on November 27, 2024, to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP
Lebanon's Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun attends a cabinet meeting in Beirut on November 27, 2024, to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP

Lebanese army chief Joseph Aoun, who is being touted as a possible candidate for the presidency, is a man with a tough mission following an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire that relies heavily on his troops deploying in the south.

Aoun, 60, was set to retire last January after heading the army since 2017, but has had his mandate extended twice -- the last time on Thursday.

The army, widely respected and a rare source of unity in a country riven by sectarian and political divides, has held together despite periodic social strife, the latest war and a crushing five-year economic crisis.
A fragile ceasefire took effect on Wednesday, ending more than a year of war between Israel and Hezbollah that has killed thousands in Lebanon and caused mass displacements on both sides of the border.
Under its terms, the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers are to become the only armed presence in south Lebanon, where Hezbollah enjoys strong support and had been launching attacks on Israeli troops for months, and fighting them on the ground since late September.

The move averted a military power vacuum as the army, which boasts about 80,000 Lebanese servicemen, seeks to bolster its deployment in south Lebanon as part of the nascent truce.

But it will be a difficult task in an area long seen as Hezbollah territory, and risks upsetting the country's already delicate social balance as tensions run high over the war's course and devastation.

- 'Integrity' -

Aoun "has a reputation of personal integrity", said Karim Bitar, an international relations expert at Beirut's Saint-Joseph University.

The army chief came into prominence after leading the army in a battle to drive out the ISIS group from a mountanous area along the Syrian border.

"Within the Lebanese army, he is perceived as someone who is dedicated... who has the national interest at heart, and who has been trying to consolidate this institution, which is the last non-sectarian institution still on its feet in the country," he told AFP.

Aoun has good relations with groups across the political spectrum, including with Hezbollah, as well as with various foreign countries.

Mohanad Hage Ali from the Carnegie Middle East Center noted that "being the head of US-backed Lebanese Armed Forces, Joseph Aoun has ties to the United States".

"While he maintained relations with everyone, Hezbollah-affiliated media often criticized him" for his US ties, he told AFP.

An international conference in Paris last month raised $200 million to support the armed forces.

The military has been hit hard by Lebanon's economic crisis, and at one point in 2020 said it had scrapped meat from the meals offered to on-duty soldiers due to rising food prices.

Aoun has also been floated by several politicians, parties and local media as a potential candidate for Lebanon's presidency, vacant for more than two years amid deadlock between allies of Hezbollah and its opponents, who accuse the group of seeking to impose its preferred candidate.

Aoun has not commented on the reports and largely refrains from making media statements.

- President? -

A Western diplomat told AFP that "everyone has recognized Aoun's track record at the head of the army".

"But the question is, can he transform himself into a politician?" said the diplomat, requesting anonymity to discuss politically sensitive matters.

Bitar said that "many, even those who respect him are opposed to his election as president, because he comes from the army mostly", noting a number of Lebanon's heads of state, including recently, were former army chiefs.

Most "left a bittersweet taste", Bitar said, noting any election of Aoun could also perpetuate the idea that the army chief "systematically becomes president".

This could end up weakening the military as it creates "an unhealthy relationship between political power and the army, which is supposed to remain neutral", he added.

Hage Ali said that the idea of Aoun's "candidacy for the presidency did not receive much enthusiasm from the major figures in the political class, even those who are opposed to Hezbollah".

Aoun, who speaks Arabic, French and English, hails from Lebanon's Christian community and has two children.

By convention, the presidency goes to a Maronite Christian, the premiership is reserved for a Sunni Muslim and the post of parliament speaker goes to a Shiite Muslim.

He is not related to the previous Lebanese president Michel Aoun -- also a former army chief -- although the two served together in the military.