Mercenaries of the Libya War: Easily Lured Cannon Fodder that Are Later Discarded

Mercenaries of the Libya War: Easily Lured Cannon Fodder that Are Later Discarded
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Mercenaries of the Libya War: Easily Lured Cannon Fodder that Are Later Discarded

Mercenaries of the Libya War: Easily Lured Cannon Fodder that Are Later Discarded

“Do we complete our mission, make some money and return to Syria? Or will we be captured by Haftar’s forces and get killed? What if his forces seize Tripoli, which we came here to defend? What then?”

These are the thoughts that plagued a Syria fighter who took part in the Libyan war (2019-20) as part of a group of mercenaries brought by the former Government of National Accord (GNA) headed by Fayez al-Sarraj.

These groups are backed Türkiye and militias in western Libya and fought the forces of Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar, who had captured the eastern parts of the country and some regions in the South. Haftar also enjoys the support of several tribes in the east and is backed by Russia’s Wagner mercenary group.

Asharq Al-Awsat spoke with “Rami Abou Mohammed”, who hails from Syria’s northern Aleppo countryside, about the journey he started from Türkiye at the beginning of 2020. On board a Libyan Afriqiyah Airways flight, he was flown with hundreds of Syrian mercenaries from Istanbul to Mitiga International Airport in the Libyan capital Tripoli.

At that time, Tripoli had been fighting a nine-month offensive by Haftar’s Wagner-backed forces to seize the capital. Ankara brought in mercenaries from Syrian opposition factions, most notably the Sultan Murad Division that was formed in 2013 with a majority of Syrian Turkmen members.

After 14 months of fighting, Sarraj’s GNA fighters forced the LNA to withdraw from the outskirts of Tripoli.

Amid a rapidly changing international scene and the opening of new war fronts in Africa, alliances and priorities changed and Russia soon formed the so-called Africa Corps as an alternative to the Wagner group with the aim to expand its influence in five African countries, starting with Libya.

With its attention focused on countering western influence in Africa, the mercenaries brought in by both warring parties in Libya were left behind, either in camps, bases or tasked with carrying out special missions for militias in western Libya.

Initially, efforts were made by official military authorities to remove the mercenaries from Libya. The warring parties signed a ceasefire agreement in Geneva in October 2023 that called for their withdrawal, but that never happened. In early February 2021, the United Nations mission in Libya acknowledged that 20,000 foreign fighters were “occupying” several military bases in Libya. No official figures are available over their exact numbers, but it is likely that the number has dropped with the intensity of the conflict.

In this report, Asharq Al-Awsat traced how fighters from a number countries became embroiled in a war that is not their own for a various ideological and financial reasons and how several ended up detained in Libyan military bases, losing whatever power they had when at one point in the conflict they were instrumental in determining the battle.

Rami recalled how - at just 23 years of age - he embarked on a “terrifying” journey from Syria to Libya. He said he was “forced by difficult economic conditions” to fly to Libya despite knowing that he may end up being killed in the fighting. “The situation in Syria is very difficult and death is everywhere,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

From Hawar Kalas to the Abou Salim front

Mercenaries had flooded LNA- and GNA-controlled regions. Mercenaries were seen as a mighty force that local and foreign powers could rely on as they vied for control in Libya. Some of the mercenaries came from security companies and irregular armies.

Rami, who had never joined an armed faction before, recalled the journey from Syria to Libya. He said: “We were brought in from several regions in Syria. They recorded our names and then transported us from the town of Hawar Kalas to Türkiye's Gaziantep airport.” They were then flown to Istanbul on board a military plane and later taken to Mitiga airport on board an Afriqiyah Airways flight.

Sarraj had turned to military assistance from Türkiye during a visit to Ankara on December 26, 2019, as the LNA closed in on Tripoli. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan scrambled to send military experts, fighters and military gear, most notably drones.

“Before being sent to Tripoli, the Turkish forces sent us to camps on the border with Syria where we received training,” said Rami. He believed that the training was provided by the Turkish SADAT Defense company. They were flown to Tripoli upon completing the training.

SADAT Defense “is the first and the only Private Military Company in Türkiye, that internationally provides consultancy, military training and logistics services at the international defense and interior security sector,” reads its website.

It was founded, under the presidency of Brigadier General (Retired) Adnan Tanriverdi, by 23 officers and NCOs retired from various units of Turkish Armed Forces and began its activities by February2012.

It denies that it was still operating in Libya despite acknowledging that it had carried out projects there in 2013. To avoid legal sanctions, it had recently established services companies to act as a front for its activities in Libya. It also recruited on occasion military leaders of armed Syrian factions.

Two UN reports from 2021 and 2023 revealed that SADAT Defense had recruited 5,000 mercenaries in Syria to fight in Tripoli. It also accused Ankara of violating the arms embargo on Libya.

The reports sparked outrage after being published by Turkish journalist Saygi Ozturk in the opposition Sozcu newspaper. SADAT Defense asserted that the report findings were baseless.

Turkish academic Dr. Muhannad Hafizoglu explained to Asharq Al-Awsat how Ankara does not view the Syrians it sent to Libya as mercenaries. Rather, it believes that everyone sent to Libya through Turkish facilitations was either Turkish or had Turkish roots. Everyone sent to fight for Sarraj held the Turkish nationality, he added.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry rejected repeated requests by Asharq Al-Awsat for comment. The pro-Türkiye Syrian National Army also refused to make any statement.

Ahmed Hamade, a defector of the Syrian Army, said that Syrians who headed to Libya worked as translators, not fighters. The Turkish Foreign Ministry refused to comment on the claim.

Hamade added that several Syrians were lured by money to fight for the Wager Group. Moreover, he said that the dispatch of Syrian fighters to Libya or elsewhere was “inspired” by the arrival of Iranian militias, Russian fighters and Wagner members to prop up the regime of President Bashar al-Assad against the revolution. Wagner promptly joined the fight in Libya.

Doubts and fears swirled through Rami’s mind throughout the flight to Mitiga airport. He recalled the warnings of his family, who urged him against embarking on such a journey, but he said he was a bit comforted by being surrounded by hundreds of other Syrians like him. “Whatever happens to them will happen to me,” he added.

He had the opportunity during the flight to get to know the other fighters, estimated at about 200. He learned that some were members of various armed factions, such as the Glory Corps. They were received at Mitiga airport by men in civilian clothing and transported to the Ain Zara area, some 18 kms southeast of Tripoli. Ain Zara witnessed some of the fiercest fighting during the battle between GNA and LNA.

The exchange of mercenaries to and from Libya and Syria never ceased between June 2020 and November 2024, revealed Rami Abdulrahman, Director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Abdulrahman told Asharq Al-Awsat that some 2,000 Syrians remain in Libya. SADAT Defense and Turkish intelligence still fly them to Libya and they also return others back to Syria.

In January, the Observatory said that over 7,000 Syrian mercenaries were in Tripoli, but they have since fled to North Africa or Europe. A former military official said that only the military parties in Libya know the real number of mercenaries that were brought in to fight.

At the beginning of the war in 2019, the fighters were paid around 1,500 dollars, while now they earn 500 dollars. A Turkish soldier, meanwhile, barely earned 150 dollars at the time.

Abu Salim front

Rami, the Syrian fighter, said the newly-recruited Syrians in Libya received instructions from the Libyans. They were also trained by officers from SADAT Defense. They received weapons training and learned about the geography of the region where they will be fighting the “enemy”.

“We received training on the use of weapons and limited combat missions for a week at the Ain Zara camp. We were then taken to the Abou Salim front where we fought Haftar’s forces. Several Syrian factions were there, including the Glory Corps and Al-Mutassim group,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He recalled that several of his fellow fighters were captured or killed at the front. However, he spoke of victory, saying: “We managed to liberate the Yarmuk camp from Haftar’s forces.” Members of the Sultan Murad Division took up camp there.

Unofficial sources said some 500 mercenaries were killed. The GNA’s Volcano of Rage Operation against the LNA waged fierce battles to capture the Yarmuk and al-Hamza positions south of Tripoli. They are now the most significant bases where Syrian mercenaries are deployed.

Chaos in Libya

The security chaos in Libya made it easy for several “armed groups” to enter the country. Some took up base on the southern border and others were called up to fight for one of the warring factions when the “battle for Tripoli” erupted.

Chadian National Salvation Movement (MSNT) leader Omar Al-Mahdi Bashara attested to the chaos of fighters as he was a rebel deployed to the Chadian-Libyan border for 20 years before returning to political life.

This partially explains why Chadian, Sudanese and other African fighters joined the conflict in Libya, he said.

Since the end of the war on Tripoli, little was announced about the fate of the mercenaries. One announcement said 300 Sudanese fighters were deported from Libya.

Amid such secrecy, head of the joint 5+5 joint military committee in the western region Ahmed Abou Shahma accused Libyan politicians of obstructing the withdrawal of the mercenaries. “Each party is clinging on to their mercenaries,” he said.

Claudia Gazzini, the International Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Libya, told Asharq Al-Awsat that it is difficult to tally the number of mercenaries in Libya. It is essential to differentiate between special forces that were paid by the various parties and between foreign forces that are deployed there.

Libyan political analyst Ahmed Abu Argoub told Asharq Al-Awsat that the countries that sent their fighters and mercenaries to Libya are keen on maintaining the political vacuum in the country and feeding divisions. “They have no interest in seeing the rise of a Libyan state,” he explained.

Meanwhile, advisor at the Libyan Tribal Union (LTU) Khaled al-Ghweil threatened civil disobedience followed by military action should the mercenaries fail to peacefully leave the country. “Any mercenary found in the country would be a legitimate target,” he warned.

Bases on the coast

Alongside Ankara, Moscow is another source of mercenaries in Libya. It has used its presence in Libya to extend its influence in Africa through the Africa Corps.

Russian forces in Libya are nothing new, but Moscow has sought to bolster its presence after moving forces and military gear to eastern Libya, said a report by the All Eyes on Wagner group, raising concerns with the US and Europe.

The Polish Institute of International Affairs released a report, “Africa Corps - a New Iteration of Russia's Old Military Presence in Africa”, that examines how Russia’s presence in Libya shifted to focus on the whole of Africa.

It said that Wagner’s operations in Libya were impacted by the death of the group’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and Moscow eventually signed a military agreement with Haftar in September 2023.

The Europeans continue to be worried. Then EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell declared on August 25: “We should be worried about what’s happening in Africa. When I first came to Brussels, the French and Italians were in Libya. They weren’t always in harmony, but they were present. Today, there are no Europeans left in Libya – only Turks and Russians.”

“The bases along Libya’s coast are no longer European; they belong to Türkiye and Russia. This is not the Mediterranean order we envisioned,” he added.

Former ambassador and advisor at ESCWA Ibrahim Mousa Grada said the Wagner mercenary presence in Libya is more complicated than any other foreign armed presence in the country.

Their deployment in Libya is seen as a foothold for Russia in Africa from which it expanded its influence in the continent and which has become part of an open struggle for power between Moscow and Washington.

Grada told Asharq Al-Awsat that Wagner’s presence in Libya is connected to major countries that have intersecting interests, especially in the Mediterranean and Africa. Given Russia’s war on Ukraine and the situation in Sudan, their pullout from Libya will definitely come at a price.

The Global Security Review said on August 18 that Russia has expanded its influence in Libya and Africa. The March 2023 edition of the Africa Defense Forum (adf) magazine, issued by AFRICOM, said that some 2,000 Wagner fighters had settled in central Libya since the ceasefire. They continue to train soldiers deployed in the east and guard oilfields in the southeast.

In November, adf said weapons from Libya were being smuggled to “terrorist groups” in Nigeria. It claimed that several of these weapons were made in Russia and that they were brought to Libya by the Wagner group.

The majority of the Wagner fighters are deployed at “sovereign” locations under the control of the LNA. They are tasked with guarding oilfields and ports in the central region known as the “oil crescent”.

Witnesses told Asharq Al-Awsat that Wagner fighters have been noticably active in the vicinity of Sirte city, some 450 kms from Tripoli. They noted their movement between the Ghardabiya Airbase, its naval port and the Al-Jufra Airbase. Members of the group were also spotted at the Brak base, 700 kms south of Tripoli.

Russia's ambassador to Libya Haider Aganin dismissed concerns over the Wagner group. In televised remarks on May 13, he accused western countries of stoking suspicions against the group.

Prisons and drugs

Another Syrian fighter brought in from Aleppo told Asharq Al-Awsat about his “deadly” experience in Libya.

“As soon as we arrived in Tripoli, we were turned over to a military leader who took us to the Sog Al-Khamis camp. No one was allowed to speak out against him or he would be detained,” said “Monzer Abou Khaled”.

Abou Khaled is still in Tripoli and has not been able to return to Syria. “Thousands of fighters are in the Kamis camp,” he added. They don’t allow us to stray far from the camp. We are in a prison. Some fighters have been here for two and three years. They can’t return to Syria and they aren’t receiving their salaries. They are given little food and drink, while the commanders enjoy plenty.”

“They have taken most of our salaries. Before heading to Libya, we reached an agreement to be paid 1,800 dollars a month, but they have only given us 500 dollars,” he revealed.

Asharq Al-Awsat learned that during that time, members of the Sultan Murad faction had arrested some 20 fighters in the Yarmuk camp for “refusing to hand over half of their financial earnings.”

Rami said the fighters were exploited and tempted by money. He spoke of drug smuggling and how their salaries were cut. “The leaders of the factions are profiting off of the fighters. They are trading weapons and smuggling drugs,” he stated.

He explained that the leaders ply the fighters with drugs so that they can be easily manipulated. They also smuggle drugs in Tripoli.

He described 2024 as the worst year for Syrian fighters because thousands of them have been prevented from leaving the city.

Return to Aleppo countryside

Rami left Tripoli after two years of fighting in southern Tripoli and time spent in Ain Zara. He returned to the Aleppo countryside, leaving behind colleagues who are still held in camps in western Libya.

He may have “survived death”, but painful memories still haunt him. “Several of our colleagues were killed in fighting. Others were lost at sea after they fled the camps and sought to escape to Europe,” he revealed.

When the war ended, several thousand mercenaries in Tripoli complained about not being paid or about salary cuts, prompting them to protest in the streets as seen in videos circulated on social media.

Observatory Director Abdulrahman told Asharq Al-Awsat that a “large number” of the mercenaries fled their camps in Tripoli. He did not specify the exact number, but said they escaped to various Libyan regions to seek work and other headed to Europe.

In September 2023, the Observatory said some 3,000 Syrian mercenaries had fled military bases in Libya and headed to Europe.

Expulsion

As alliances and balances changed in the past four years, so did the Libyans’ view of the mercenaries. They are now seen as pariahs and are unwanted in the country.

The hatred against them was on full display when dozens of Libyans protested in front of the military academy in Tripoli in August 2023 to demand the expulsion of the mercenaries who were present in the facility. The protesters managed to storm the academy and set vehicles on fire and chanted slogans demanding the expulsion of the fighters.

Al-Saady Radwan told Asharq Al-Awsat: “We had previously given them a deadline to leave Libya and they did not. Either the military agencies take action or we will take them by surprise and expel them.”

He also accused the Government of National Unity, headed by Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, of “giving them funds from the state treasury.”

The Russian mercenaries are viewed with the same hatred.

UN Security Council President Pedro Comissário Afonso had recently urged the withdrawal of all foreign forces, fighters and mercenaries from Libya, saying it has become a pressing need.

From Libya to Togo

Libya is not the only place the Syrian mercenaries were recruited to fight. The conflicts across Africa have turned Libya into a “crossing” point for new mercenaries.

A Syrian, who spoke on condition of anonymity, revealed that the Sultan Murad Division had recruited his 17-year-old brother to head to Libya over the summer and from there, he was taken to Togo to fight.

“He spoke to us from a telephone line that appeared to be from Togo. We don’t really know if he is actually there. We don’t know what to do,” the Syrian told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Sudanese on the front

The war may be over, but the tragedies do not end. Every fighter has a story to tell.

Two Sudanese brothers were recruited to join the fight. One fought for the Tripoli forces and the other for the LNA.

In December 2023, Asharq Al-Awsat contacted their family to inquire about them. It learned that the older son’s fate remains unknown, while the other managed to flee Libya through Chad and he is now in El-Fasher in Sudan.

The family fled the war in Sudan to Egypt. Asharq Al-Awsat met with the mother who revealed that the family had not been in contact with the brothers for three years.

At one point they learned that one was in Tripoli. “They abducted one and misled the other. We gained nothing from this,” she lamented.

The older brother didn’t even know that his brother had been recruited to fight for the LNA. The brothers never faced each other in battle and the family never informed them that they had been recruited to fight for the rival parties.

“We informed the younger son when he returned to us from Chad in late 2022,” said the mother, who called herself “Umm Bashir.”

She showed Asharq Al-Awsat a video of her older son in Tripoli. His leg has been amputated, and the Tripoli militias are holding him at an arms depot.

“He is 27 years old now. He told us that his leg was amputated after a bullet lodged in his leg was left untreated for two months,” she said tearfully. The family has since lost contact with him.

The family had contacted several parties in Tripoli, including the former GNA, to inquire about him, without reply.

When the war in Sudan erupted in April 2023, mercenaries who had fought for Haftar and Sarraj returned home. The family rushed to learn anything about their son. They were told that he was last seen in Sabratha city, 70 kms west of Tripoli. He is believed to have drowned while attempting to flee to Europe by boat.



Strait of Hormuz Blockade Step by Step: What Do We Know?

A view of Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska as the US Navy Arleigh Burke-class Aegis guided missile destroyer USS Spruance conducts its interception in a location given as the north Arabian Sea, in this screen capture from a video released April 19, 2026. (CENTCOM/Handout via Reuters)
A view of Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska as the US Navy Arleigh Burke-class Aegis guided missile destroyer USS Spruance conducts its interception in a location given as the north Arabian Sea, in this screen capture from a video released April 19, 2026. (CENTCOM/Handout via Reuters)
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Strait of Hormuz Blockade Step by Step: What Do We Know?

A view of Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska as the US Navy Arleigh Burke-class Aegis guided missile destroyer USS Spruance conducts its interception in a location given as the north Arabian Sea, in this screen capture from a video released April 19, 2026. (CENTCOM/Handout via Reuters)
A view of Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska as the US Navy Arleigh Burke-class Aegis guided missile destroyer USS Spruance conducts its interception in a location given as the north Arabian Sea, in this screen capture from a video released April 19, 2026. (CENTCOM/Handout via Reuters)

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained mostly at a standstill on Monday, with just three vessels crossing the vital waterway, according to Kpler, a maritime data firm.

On Sunday, a US Navy destroyer attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that US President Donald Trump said had tried to evade the US blockade on ships traveling to and from Iranian ports.

In a separate incident, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center, which is administered by Britain’s Royal Navy, said that two vessels had been hit while trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz, according to a notice published on Saturday.

In one instance, gun ships operated by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps fired at a tanker without radio warning, the British organization said. In the second incident, a container ship was hit by “an unknown projectile” that damaged some of the containers.

On Tuesday, the US military said it had seized an Iran-linked tanker in international waters, in what appears to be the latest move to enforce a blockade as the ceasefire deadline looms.

The US military said it had boarded the tanker Tifani “without incident.”

The ship, capable of carrying 2 million barrels of crude, last reported its position on Tuesday morning near Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean, according to MarineTraffic tracking data. It was close to fully loaded and had signaled Singapore as its destination.

A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire early Wednesday.

Latest developments

The US Navy has turned back 27 ships trying to enter or exit Iranian ports since an American blockade outside the contested Strait of Hormuz began about a week ago, the military’s Central Command said on Monday.

On Sunday, a Navy destroyer disabled and seized the Touska, an Iranian cargo ship, in the Gulf of Oman after it tried to evade the blockade. It was the first time a vessel was reported to have tried to evade the US-imposed blockade on any ship entering or exiting Iranian ports since it took effect last week.

The guided-missile destroyer Spruance, one of more than a dozen Navy warships enforcing the US blockade, ordered the vessel’s crew to evacuate its engine room.

The Spruance then fired several rounds from its Mk-45 gun into the ship’s propulsion system as it steamed toward the port of Bandar Abbas in Iran, Central Command said in a statement that included a video of the firing.

American officials will determine what to do with the disabled vessel once the search is completed, a US military official said on Monday, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, according to the New York Times. One option would be to tow the stricken ship to Oman, independent specialists said. An alternative would be to let the Touska steam to an Iranian port, if it can.

A spokesman for Iran’s military reiterated a threat on Monday to “take the necessary action against the US military” in response to the ship’s seizure, Iran’s state broadcaster reported.

How is the US imposing the blockade?

According to CENTCOM, more than 10,000 US personnel, including sailors, marines, and airmen, are participating in the operation, supported by over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft. The effort spans key waterways surrounding Iran, including the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

The US blockade on Iranian ports does not have a defined geographic boundary, and the United States can interdict vessels almost anywhere in international waters until they arrive at their final port.

Analysts say modern technology allows blockade enforcement at great distances.

Can ships evade the blockade?

Maritime intelligence experts say that more ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz seem to be adopting “spoofing” tactics to avoid detection.

Under international maritime law, most large commercial vessels travel with a transponder that automatically transmits the ship’s name, location, route and other identifying information. That includes a nine-digit number with a country code, which serves as a digital fingerprint for a ship.

The tactics were used by Russian “shadow fleet” vessels evading sanctions related to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

When a ship is engaged in spoofing, its captain can type in a false origin or destination or can pretend to be piloting another ship altogether. Vessels can also temporarily turn off their transponders, seeming to disappear in one place and reappear in another.

The strait is “a contested information environment,” said Erik Bethel, a partner at Mare Liberum, a maritime technology venture capital fund.

Still, whatever ruses they employ, vessels going to and from Iran may get only so far. It is difficult to pass between the open ocean and a waterway as narrow as the Strait of Hormuz without being detected.

“My expectation is that the US Navy can sit out in the Gulf of Oman,” said Ami Daniel, the chief executive of Windward, a maritime intelligence data provider. “I don’t think there’s a way to breach the blockade.”

What are the US and Iranian strategies?

The US blockade sets up a significant test in the Iran war: Which side can endure more economic pain?

Instead of directing missiles and bombs, Trump is trying to choke off Iran’s oil exports, which make up just about all of the government’s revenue.

Some experts questioned whether the US blockade would work.

“Iran is already hurting, and they have shown that they are willing to take more than a couple of hits,” said Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at TED University in Ankara, Türkiye.

Iran’s strategy appears to be using its leverage over global energy markets, where Tehran has discovered new powers that can cause pain in the US economy through spikes in the price of gasoline and other staples.

Why is the strait so important?

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic waterway connecting the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. It is the only sea route for moving oil, natural gas and other cargo out of the Gulf. Iran’s coastline runs along the entire route.

At the strait’s narrowest and most vulnerable point — between Iran to the north and the Musandam Peninsula of Oman to the south — the navigable channel is about two miles wide each for inbound and outbound traffic, according to the International Energy Agency.

The legal status of the strait is complex. It lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, but under international law it is treated as an international waterway where ships are generally guaranteed passage.

Iran has signed but not ratified that framework and has disputed the extent of those rights.

Before the war, about 20% of global oil and liquid natural gas passed through the strait. Most of the fossil fuels are bound for Asia, especially China, India, Japan and South Korea.

Other large vessels also use the strait, including car carriers and container ships.

Crucial industrial goods traveling through Hormuz include helium from Qatar, fertilizer from Oman and Saudi Arabia, and plastic feedstocks from Saudi Arabia and Emirati petrochemical plants.

How does Iran control the strait?

Iran’s military can threaten shipping traffic throughout the Strait of Hormuz, even though much of its navy has been destroyed by US and Israeli strikes.

The United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on the argument that if Iran one day got a nuclear weapon, it would have the ultimate deterrent against future attacks.

It turns out that Iran already has a deterrent: geography.

“The Iranians have thought a lot about how to utilize the geography to their benefit,” said Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies Gulf security.

*The New York Times


US-Iran Talks Test Power Balances in Tehran as National Security Council Comes to the Forefront

Qalibaf (L) at a meeting of the regime's Expediency Discernment Council, with Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr. (Qalibaf’s official site)
Qalibaf (L) at a meeting of the regime's Expediency Discernment Council, with Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr. (Qalibaf’s official site)
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US-Iran Talks Test Power Balances in Tehran as National Security Council Comes to the Forefront

Qalibaf (L) at a meeting of the regime's Expediency Discernment Council, with Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr. (Qalibaf’s official site)
Qalibaf (L) at a meeting of the regime's Expediency Discernment Council, with Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr. (Qalibaf’s official site)

After US-Israeli bombardment eliminated Iran’s supreme leader and much of its top echelons, the country’s leadership didn’t fall apart — but negotiations to end the war offer a new test.

For decades, the supreme leader successfully managed several powerful factions, bringing to heel those who challenged his authority while listening to rival opinions. It’s now unclear who wields that kind of authority over the collection of civilian figures and powerful generals from the Revolutionary Guard who appear to be in charge.

They have found unity — for now — by taking a tough line. But disagreements over how much to concede in negotiations with the United States could reveal fault lines, as Pakistani mediators try to host a new round of talks this week, according to The Associated Press.

Who is in charge?

In the past, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was able to impose his will on the country's disparate power centers. After Israeli strikes killed him on the first day of the war, his son Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded him.

But doubts continue to swirl over the younger Khamenei’s role after reports he was wounded in the strikes. Still in hiding, he has not appeared in public since becoming supreme leader and how he gives orders to top leaders is a mystery.

At the center of power now is a politburo-like body known as the Supreme National Security Council, which includes Iran’s top civilian and military officials. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the parliament speaker and a veteran insider with strong contacts on all sides, has emerged as its face and the chief negotiator with the US.

The late Khamenei began giving more authority to the council before his death, but the war has consolidated its power.

The council contains a range of political opinions and often acute rivalries. A political rival of Qalibaf and uncompromising opponent of the US, Saeed Jalili, represents the supreme leader on the council, while the body’s nominal head is reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Hard-liner members include the Guard’s new chief commander, Ahmad Vahidi, and the council’s new secretary, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, also a commander in the Guard.

But Israel’s strategy of eliminating top leaders points to a misreading of how the Iranian regime works, experts say.

Iran’s leadership survived “precisely because there are multiple power centers with overlapping authorities,” said Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group. “Factionalism is just built into the DNA of this system.”

But since the war, the Guard’s growing clout on the council has also stoked speculation that a fundamental change could be coming.

Negotiations with the US will stress test the power structure

The council now faces potentially divisive questions over how far to go to reach a deal with the US, which is demanding Iran make major concessions aimed at ensuring it is never able to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran has long insisted its program is peaceful while saying it has the right to uranium enrichment.

In an interview with Iranian state TV on Sunday, Qalibaf said Iran wants a comprehensive accord that brings “a lasting peace” where the US no longer attacks the country.

“This dangerous loop needs to be cut,” he said. The US has twice launched strikes on Iran during high-level negotiations: once in the 12-day war in June, then again in the current conflict.

Council members have projected confidence that Iran holds the upper hand now, particularly because its grip on the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial passage for the world’s oil — enables it to drive up fuel prices, thus threatening the global economy and exerting political pressure on US President Donald Trump back home.

Senior officials have insisted they can hold out for assurances that Iran won’t be attacked again — even risking the war reigniting — because they believe Iran can endure the pain longer than the United States and its allies.

But ultimately, the leadership’s priority remains its own survival. The war and the US blockade, which is threatening Iran’s oil trade, are tightening the screws on the country’s cratering economy.

Economic hardship has fueled waves of unrest over the past two decades, including protests in January that openly called for the regime’s overthrow. A deal with the West lifting sanctions could help it keep its grip at home.

Signs of disagreement

Events over the weekend surrounding the Strait of Hormuz gave an indication of serious differences over how much to concede in negotiations. Engagement with Washington has long divided Iran’s top ranks, despite a shared deep mistrust of the US.

On Friday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced in a posting on X that Iran was opening the strait to commercial traffic as part of the ceasefire agreement with the US. Hours later, Trump proclaimed that the US would continue its blockade to keep pressure on Iran to reach a deal over its nuclear program.

On Saturday morning, Iran’s military announced that it was reclosing the strait in retaliation for the blockade.

Some Iranian media criticized Araghchi, suggesting his post created the impression Iran was showing weakness and revealing the differing positions behind the scenes. A report by the Tasnim news agency, seen as close to the Guard, said the position on the strait should have come from the National Security Council itself.

Araghchi’s office pushed back, saying the Foreign Ministry “does not take any action without coordinating with higher-level institutions.”

In his interview Sunday, Qalibaf tried to paper over any divisions, emphasizing that everyone in the leadership was on the same page on Iran’s strategy in US talks.

A possible bridge builder

The 64-year-old Qalibaf is best positioned to bridge divides among Iran’s factions.

Qalibaf is a former general in the Guard and national police chief and kept close to the Guard throughout his long political career. As Tehran’s mayor from 2005 to 2017, Qalibaf gained a reputation as a pragmatist able to get things done, like overhauling an ailing public transport system, even as he faced major corruption and human rights abuse allegations.

Ali Rabie, a well-known reformist and an assistant to the president, wrote last week in a newspaper editorial that Qalibaf was “the representative of the country and the regime.”

At the same time, Qalibaf is close to the Khamenei family both hailing from the area of the eastern city of Mashhad, said Mohsen Sazegara, one of the founders of the Revolutionary Guard in the 1980s who is now an opposition figure living in the US.

During his father’s rule, Mojtaba Khamenei backed Qalibaf’s several unsuccessful attempts to run for president.

Qalibaf is also close to the senior Guard figures who stepped in to replace those killed by Israel and who are widely seen as holding the key to any future agreement with the US. His cross-factional backing could enable him to ensure support at home for a deal against blowback from ideologues who will resist compromise.


Rats, Fleas Plague Gaza’s Displaced as Temperatures Rise

Garbage litters the ground next to makeshift shelters housing displaced Palestinians in Gaza City on April 20, 2026. (AFP)
Garbage litters the ground next to makeshift shelters housing displaced Palestinians in Gaza City on April 20, 2026. (AFP)
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Rats, Fleas Plague Gaza’s Displaced as Temperatures Rise

Garbage litters the ground next to makeshift shelters housing displaced Palestinians in Gaza City on April 20, 2026. (AFP)
Garbage litters the ground next to makeshift shelters housing displaced Palestinians in Gaza City on April 20, 2026. (AFP)

As springtime temperatures rise in Gaza, a surge in rats, fleas and other pests has compounded the misery of hundreds of thousands of displaced people still living in tents after more than two years of war.

With meager shelter and almost no sanitation, Palestinians told AFP the vermin are invading their makeshift homes, biting children and contaminating food, in what aid agencies warned was a growing public health threat.

"My children have been bitten. One of my sons was even bitten on the nose," said Muhammad al-Raqab, a displaced Palestinian man living in a tent near the southern city of Khan Younis.

"I am unable to sleep through the night because I must constantly watch over the children," the 32-year-old construction worker, originally from Bani Shueila, told AFP.

With shelters erected directly on soft sand by the Mediterranean Sea, rodents can easily burrow under tent walls and wreck havoc inside, where people have established makeshift pantries and kitchens.

"The rodents have eaten through my tent," Raqab said.

Nearly all of Gaza's population was displaced by Israeli evacuation orders and airstrikes during the war with Hamas that began after the group's attack on Israel in October 2023.

According to the UN, 1.7 million of Gaza's 2.2 million inhabitants still live in displacement camps, unable to return home or to areas that remain under Israeli military control despite a ceasefire that began in October 2025.

In these camps, "living conditions are characterized by vermin and parasite infestations", the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Action (OCHA) said after field visits in March.

Hani al-Flait, head of pediatrics at Al-Aqsa Hospital in central Gaza, told AFP his team encounters skin infections such as scabies daily.

- 'Flooded with sewage' -

"The severity of these skin infections has been exacerbated by the fact that these children and their families are living in harsh conditions that lack basic public sanitation, as well as a complete absence of safe water," he told AFP.

Sabreen Abu Taybeh, whose son has been suffering from a rash, blamed the conditions in the camp.

"We are living in tents and schools flooded with sewage," she told AFP, showing the rash covering her son's upper body.

"I have taken him to doctors and hospitals, but they are not helping with anything. As you see, the rash remains."

"The summer season has brought us rodents and fleas," Ghalia Abu Selmi told AFP after discovering mice had gnawed through clothes she had prepared for her daughter's upcoming wedding.

"Fleas have caused skin allergies not only for children but for adults as well," she said, sorting through garments riddled with holes inside the tent she now calls home in Khan Younis.

The 53-year-old said her family has been displaced 20 times since October 2023 and has yet to return to their home in the town of Abasan al-Kabira near the Israeli border.

Despite the ceasefire, Israel continues to control all access points into Gaza, with tight inspections and frequent rejections of aid deliveries, according to NGOs and the UN.

This has caused shortages in everything from medicine and fuel, to clothing and food.

Airstrikes and firefights between Israel's military and what it says are Hamas fighters still occur near-daily.

According to the territory's health ministry, which operates under Hamas authority, at least 777 people have been killed by Israel's military since the start of the ceasefire.

The military says five of its soldiers have also been killed in Gaza over the same period.