The 'Smuggler' of Syrian Torture Archives Reveals His True Identity

In a “Asharq Al-Awsat” exclusive, Caesar’s twin witness warns against ignoring accountability

Sami reveals to “Asharq Al-Awsat” that he is Osama Othman
Sami reveals to “Asharq Al-Awsat” that he is Osama Othman
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The 'Smuggler' of Syrian Torture Archives Reveals His True Identity

Sami reveals to “Asharq Al-Awsat” that he is Osama Othman
Sami reveals to “Asharq Al-Awsat” that he is Osama Othman

For many years, the world only knew them by the aliases Caesar and Sami. Since 2014, these two names have been associated with documenting torture in Syrian prisons. The photos they smuggled out of Syria shook the world and prompted the United States to impose strict sanctions on the regime of former President Bashar al-Assad, under what became known as the “Caesar Act.”

These horrific photos documenting torture inflicted on detainees in Syrian prisons were used in courts in Western countries to convict Syrian officers on charges of torture and human rights violations.

But who is Sami, Ceasar’s “twin witness”?

In the first-ever interview he grants using his real name and photo, Sami revealed to “Asharq Al-Awsat” that he is Osama Othman, and that he is today head of the board of directors of the “Caesar Files Group Organization.”

He was working as a civil engineer when the Syrian revolution broke out in 2011, a revolution that began peacefully but quickly turned into a bloodbath after the forces of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime brutally suppressed it.

Sami lived in the Damascus countryside, which was divided between opposition factions and government forces. His area was under the control of factions that were part of what was known as the “Free Army,” but a person very close to him, who later became known as “Caesar,” was working in areas controlled by the regime forces. His job was not ordinary. His mission was to document deaths in Syrian security services departments. He documented them with photos: this body is missing a part of the head, this one is missing eyes, and that one has signs of severe torture. Some of the bodies showed signs of starvation.

He documented naked bodies with numbers. Thousands of photos. Women, men, and children. The crime of many of them was officially classified as “terrorism.” But how could a child’s crime be “terrorism”? The ugliness of the crimes prompted “Sami” and “Caesar” to work together to document what was happening in Syrian prisons and detention centers, specifically in Damascus, where “Caesar” worked and who sometimes documented the deaths of no less than 70 people a day. The two men began collaborating on collecting torture documents in May 2011. “Caesar” would smuggle the photos on a USB drive and give them to Sami in opposition areas.

“Dad... why are they sleeping without clothes?”

The “smuggler” of the Syrian torture archive is often reluctant to talk about himself and evades answering questions about his personal role in the story. However, after much persistence, he recounted a small portion of his experience. He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Even my children did not know that they were the children of the man who carries the secret alias (Sami)... Once, as I was watching and searching for a photo among the evidence on my computer at night, I was surprised that my young son came to me and asked: Dad, why do these people sleep without clothes? In his innocence, he thought they were asleep. It is difficult to make your son live through this pain, so it was necessary for us to protect our children by protecting ourselves.”

Recalling his feelings at the time, he added: “When you make a very serious decision, why make others bear the responsibility for this decision? People you would not have consulted when you left. People who were only a few years old and people who were very old, you would’ve burdened them with fear without asking their permission at a moment when you decided that your responsibility was greater than your love for your family”.

The efforts of “Sami” and “Caesar” resulted in smuggling tens of thousands of photos of the bodies of torture victims out of Syria. The photos were revealed for the first time in 2014 after they left Syria. Today, the photos they smuggled have become part of the “indictment” against the security services that were affiliated with President Bashar al-Assad. In fact, the crimes were not limited to one prison or another. Torture practices were widespread in a way that leaves no doubt that it was a systematic policy adopted by the ruling regime, most likely with cover from the highest levels.

Asharq Al-Awsat asked Sami why he decided to break his silence and reveal his real name. He replied: “The Syrians know the answer to this question. I think the answer is obvious for most Syrians who were inside Syria and those who were outside it. The nature of the work and the nature of the documents that we left Syria with, which went through complex stages and many steps until we reached this blessed day, was the reason I was keen to hide my identity and the identity of many of the team members.

He added: “Today, thank God, we are in a completely different situation. We are in another place. In a new Syria. I wanted the Syrians to know what happened, and I also addressed them and the authorities in Damascus with what we hope the situation will be regarding the legal issues related to documenting and archiving data and evidence that will lead us to a stage of accountability and transitional justice to achieve stability in Syrian society. I think this matter deserves that we come out to tell the world what information and ideas we have so that we do not fall into the same problem in future generations.”

Sami adds: “I did not think, in truth, that I would live to say this word. Congratulations to our people in Syria on the fall of Assad. Congratulations to all the honorable people in this world on the fall of Assad. Thanks to everyone who stood with our revolution and shame on everyone who stood against it. After 14 years of working in secret and facing fear and anxiety, the sun of long-awaited freedom is now shining on Syria, for which our people paid a heavy price. A team of unknown heroes led a complex work full of dangers, that were not solely emanating from the regime. Today, they pledge to Syria to continue defending the dignity of the Syrian human being wherever he may be.”

The importance of accountability

Sami stressed the importance of “accountability” in Syria today, after the overthrow of the former regime, and says: “In this critical moment that Syria is going through as it prepares to enter a new phase after more than five decades of the Assad family rule, we call on the (new) government to work hard to achieve justice, hold perpetrators accountable, and ensure the dignity of human rights as a basis for building a better future that all Syrians dream of.”

He added: “We have witnessed during the past few days, and the rapid events that preceded them, a noticeable increase in the possibility of chaos spreading as a result of the remnants of the Syrian regime. Citizens randomly entering prisons and detention centers have led to the destruction or loss of very important official documents and records that reveal violations dating back decades.” He stressed that “the full responsibility for the destruction of evidence and the loss of the rights of detainees and survivors lies with the security officials of the former regime who have left and those who are still carrying out their duties and responsibilities, in addition to the current forces that are preparing to take power in Damascus. Although what is happening now can be expected after the liberation of the country from the Syrian regime, swift intervention has become urgent in collecting evidence and documents from the previous archives of security institutions, ministries and other government institutions, and this is what raises our concern about the continued work of the regime’s employees, which enables them to obliterate and destroy files of importance in revealing the crimes of the defunct regime.”

Baath Party documents

Sami believes that “all the institutions of the former regime hold documents of extreme importance, whether security, civil or military, and we do not ignore our concern about the obliteration of documents in all the branches and annexes of the Baath Party, which all Syrians know were security institutions par excellence, and those in charge of them practiced all forms of physical and moral intimidation against our great people throughout the years of the revolution.”

He adds: “We hope that this step will be taken with the participation of human rights organizations concerned with following up on issues related to research and investigation into human rights violations. The delay in revealing the official and secret detention sites that may exist in the liberated areas or areas that the armed forces of the Syrian opposition did not reach, in addition to testimonies and information circulating about the transfer of detainees from different prisons to unknown places before the fall of the regime, and the failure to provide the necessary medical and humanitarian assistance to the survivors who were released in the past days, reflects a disregard for the lives of these individuals.”

Sami called on the current authorities to “take immediate and transparent steps to reveal the fate of detainees and victims who died under torture in Syrian prisons and to suspend all those responsible for managing and operating prisons to begin urgently and immediately providing documents that clarify the names and numbers of victims to ensure the families’ right to know the fate of their loved ones. The Syrian people's right to access the truth cannot be compromised and is a duty of all concerned parties. Tolerating perpetrators of crimes under any pretext constitutes a clear violation of humanitarian and legal standards, and gives the green light to reproduce the tools of repression and violations that were practiced by the security services and are still in place.”

The Syrian human rights activist stressed that “achieving justice requires holding accountable all those involved in the crimes committed against the Syrian people, and achieving peace and stability in Syria depends on transitional justice as a fundamental principle at this stage. We call for a national reconciliation based on the principles of justice and accountability that guarantees the rights of all components of the Syrian people in a safe and stable environment that respects their dignity and meets their needs while ensuring that there is no impunity under any name.”

Opposition “imposed” on the people

Sami criticized parties in the Syrian opposition without specifying them, speaking about “failures” they had experienced. He said: “In light of the previous political failures of the opposition that were imposed on the Syrian people, we stress the need to make immediate reassuring statements about the vision and how to involve the people in decision-making and begin the process of building society in a way that respects the will of the Syrian people and guarantees their right to self-determination.”

He called on the current authority to consolidate and facilitate the work of all civil society institutions operating inside and outside Syria. “We also call on all of them to support efforts to achieve transitional justice in Syria effectively and to involve the Syrian people in developments on a regular basis, and to contribute to providing humanitarian and medical support to survivors of arrest and enforced disappearance, and to ensure that all those involved in crimes are held accountable and that impunity is not allowed.”

Sami also called for publishing and disseminating the names of the officers responsible for crimes against the Syrian people, and to monitor official and unofficial crossings, “as well as call on the official Syrian media institutions that have always contributed to the oppression of Syrians by distorting facts and glorifying the killers, to return to their natural function as a tool that strengthens the citizen's confidence in state institutions and a source of correct information”.

He adds: “It pains us to see our people searching for the names of their missing loved ones on social media pages, while state media is absent from performing its mission for which it only exists as a non-politicized service institution."

Crimes without a statute of limitations

Sami stressed that "crimes against humanity and crimes of genocide do not expire with a statute of limitations and cannot be tolerated under any circumstances”. He continues: “The Syria we dream of is a free Syria based on justice and equality. Transitional justice that precedes comprehensive national reconciliation is the only way to build the Syria of the future. We are all hopeful that Syria will be fine now. The Syria that our team left 11 years ago with thousands of tortured faces and disfigured bodies. Hundreds of which were separated from their eyes, who dreamed of being among us today”.

“In one of those faces, I saw the image of my father, mother, brothers and friends. In the darkness of the long nights, I looked at those faces and promised them that we would win." He listed his comrades killed by the regime, Yahya Shorbaji (a human rights activist), Ghiath Matar, Abdullah Othman, Burhan Ghadhban, and Nour al-Din Zaatar, saying: "To all of them, those I knew and those I did not know, may God have mercy on you. We have won (...) and Assad has fallen. May God have mercy on you and may the curse of history be upon Assad."

Unknown Heroes Behind Caesar

Sami refused to provide information about how he and Caesar left Syria and reached Western countries. However, he simply said, in response to a question: “I am Osama Othman, a civil engineer from the Damascus countryside. Many people know me even though I hide under the name (Sami). I had to use it as a shield to protect me during the period of hard work on these complex files that many unknown heroes contributed to creating.”

He added: “I am not the only one. There are many unknown heroes who contributed to getting us to this stage. The Caesar files required tremendous efforts in Europe through the courts, and in the United States through Syrian organizations that made tremendous efforts until they were able to push the US administration to issue what is called the Caesar Act or the Civilian Protection Act.”



What Syria’s Military Map Looks Like One Year After Assad Ouster

Hama residents set fire to a large banner of Bashar al Assad after armed factions seized the city last December (AFP)
Hama residents set fire to a large banner of Bashar al Assad after armed factions seized the city last December (AFP)
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What Syria’s Military Map Looks Like One Year After Assad Ouster

Hama residents set fire to a large banner of Bashar al Assad after armed factions seized the city last December (AFP)
Hama residents set fire to a large banner of Bashar al Assad after armed factions seized the city last December (AFP)

Syria’s map of control has been shaken to its core since late 2024, when the Deterrence of Aggression offensive erupted and the Assad government fell, unleashing a series of security and military shifts that continued to redraw the country’s landscape through 2025.

But this fluid map is unlikely to hold, according to a study by the Syrian research group Jusoor Center for Studies. With regional and international actors working to head off the chaos and potential partition that threaten wider stability, any near term changes in who controls what are expected to come through political and security pressure rather than a return to large scale battles.

Mahmoud Eibo, one of three researchers who worked on a report on territorial influence in Syria in 2025, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the balance of control shifted sharply after the launch of the Deterrence of Aggression battles on November 27, 2024.

In less than two weeks, the Assad government lost the areas it had held since 2020, which covered more than half of the country.

Iranian withdrawal from Syrian territory

With the government’s fall, Iran’s presence also unraveled after more than a decade of entrenchment. Iran backed militias withdrew from rural Damascus, Homs, Aleppo, the southern provinces and from Al-Bukamal and Al-Mayadin.

Eibo said the militias “withdrew completely” after supply lines linking them to Lebanon and Iraq were severed, which effectively ended Iran’s influence and that of its militias across Syria.

The military role of Hezbollah also came to an end. The group had been one of Tehran’s key proxies in Syria since 2013, when its intervention began with the capture of Al-Qusayr.

But the turning point ended in the same town, after factions in the Deterrence of Aggression campaign seized Al-Qusayr in late 2024 and Hezbollah forces pulled out entirely.

The moment marked a definitive end to Hezbollah’s long military presence in Syria, after the group lost one of its most critical geographic links to Iran through Syrian territory.

Many areas that had been under the indirect influence of Hezbollah and Iran backed factions also slipped out of their orbit and reverted to the authority of the new Syrian state and its security and military institutions in the north.

The largest shift in influence last year came at the expense of the Syrian Democratic Forces, known as the SDF, Eibo said. The Dawn of Freedom operation ended the group’s presence in strategically important areas west of the Euphrates, beginning with the fall of Tel Rifaat and surrounding villages and extending toward Manbij, which cost the SDF one of its key cities in the region.

As a result, the SDF’s influence contracted in northern and eastern Aleppo countryside and the group withdrew eastward toward Raqqa, Hasakeh and parts of Deir Ezzor.

Sweida and the south

In the south, a limited but consequential development emerged in Sweida province. Local groups linked to Sheikh Hikmat Al-Hajri seized parts of the province after government forces withdrew, taking advantage of the security vacuum.

Although the area under their control is geographically small, it created a pocket of influence outside the new government’s authority and added another layer of instability to the southern provinces.

In parallel, Israel capitalized on the collapse of the southern front. It pushed beyond the buffer zone and established a presence in select points and strategic hilltops near the disengagement line.

Although the area is small, the symbolic and intelligence value of the chosen positions gives Israel leverage through monitoring and pressure, keeping the south open to volatility.

What the new map shows

Syria’s territorial map at the end of 2025 reflects a new political landscape dominated by four actors: the Syrian government, the SDF, the National Guard forces in Sweida and Israel, each wielding varying degrees of influence.

The Syrian government remains the primary authority. Beyond its broad political and social control, it holds 69.3% of the country’s territory, covering major cities, most administrative structures and key transport routes. It does not, however, control four provincial capitals: Quneitra, Sweida, Hasakeh and Raqqa.

The SDF controls 27.8% of Syria’s territory, concentrated in the north and east. The expanse is significant but uneven in terms of internal stability. The group faces serious political pressure tied to the implementation of the March 10, 2025 agreement, which is expected to reshape its relationship with the Syrian government.

The National Guard forces in Sweida, loyal to Sheikh Hikmat Al-Hajri, control 2.8% of the country. Their influence is small in size but distinct in nature. The significance lies in their location and in the direct support they receive from Israel, which positions them within a broader framework aimed at prolonging instability in the south.

Their presence overlaps with Israel’s incursion into Syrian territory, which covers 0.1% of the country. Despite the small footprint, the choice of elevated positions and small villages with high surveillance value reflects strategic intent.

Israel is not seeking territorial control, but rather an early warning line and a tighter grip over the border zone, while supporting an environment that prevents full stability in the south. This aligns with its indirect role in reinforcing the position of the Sweida National Guard forces.

Change driven by political pressure

According to Eibo, Syria’s map of control has undergone a fundamental rupture since late 2024, ending a geopolitical phase that had been largely settled since 2020.

The country has entered a more fluid and complex period marked by the retreat of traditional actors and the emergence of new, still unsettled zones of influence.

Although limited security and military shifts continued through 2025, it is unlikely that the current map will hold. Regional and international efforts are focused on avoiding chaos and partition.

Any upcoming change in territorial control will most likely be driven by political and security pressure and by reengineering spheres of influence rather than a return to large scale military confrontations.


Assad’s ‘Trap’: A Night That Shook Tehran’s Allies in Baghdad

A defaced portrait of Syria's ousted President Bashar al-Assad hangs on a wall in the capital Damascus on June 2, 2025. (AFP)
A defaced portrait of Syria's ousted President Bashar al-Assad hangs on a wall in the capital Damascus on June 2, 2025. (AFP)
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Assad’s ‘Trap’: A Night That Shook Tehran’s Allies in Baghdad

A defaced portrait of Syria's ousted President Bashar al-Assad hangs on a wall in the capital Damascus on June 2, 2025. (AFP)
A defaced portrait of Syria's ousted President Bashar al-Assad hangs on a wall in the capital Damascus on June 2, 2025. (AFP)

A senior Iraqi security official urged his driver to pick up speed as they raced toward Damascus airport. He needed to catch a flight back to Baghdad, while alerts kept lighting up his phone.

One message stood out: “The Syrian factions are on their way to the capital.”

It was Saturday evening, December 7, 2024, and the official had just wrapped up a routine mission in northeastern Syria to coordinate border security. But Syria itself was on the edge of a dramatic shift, its old order crumbling and a new one taking shape in the ruins.

At the outskirts of Damascus, the official’s convoy halted, waiting for “extraordinary arrangements” with the emerging authorities. A flurry of sudden, unexpected contacts unfolded between the two sides.

A former Syrian official from the Military Operations Directorate said it was “the first time that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group communicated with an official in the Iraqi government.”

An Iraqi security officer who was present during the arrangements said that “the process went ahead with unexpected ease at the time, and we entered Damascus” alongside members of the group on the morning of December 8, 2024. Then a message arrived like a lightning strike: “Bashar al-Assad has fled.”

Damascus airport was a ghostly stage. Even the officers of the Air Transport Brigade whom the Iraqi official knew had disappeared. No one asked for a ticket or a passport. The diplomatic lane was wide open to the wind. The man boarded a special flight to Baghdad.

As the plane climbed through daylight, the Iraqi security official carried a bag full of questions about the new Syria.

On the same route, but on the ground, Iraqi militias that had been stationed in Syria since 2011 were withdrawing. Convoys moved from the Damascus countryside toward Al-Bukamal near the Iraqi border, making a final one-way journey for hundreds of fighters, leaving behind 15 years of a “Resistance Axis” now collapsing like a mountain of sand.

Exclusive testimonies gathered by Asharq Al-Awsat from Iraqi figures involved in the Syrian file before Assad’s escape reveal how militias withdrew from Syria without coordination or prior arrangements.

The accounts describe what unfolded behind the scenes, including how they viewed the events, and later showed that Tehran, Moscow and Assad had each made separate decisions not to fight in Syria, failing to share essential information with their Iraqi allies until late.

The testimonies also shed light on the reactions of Shiite groups following the collapse of the Assad regime, including calls to strengthen the influence of armed factions in Iraq’s political process and reinforce what became known as “Shiite governance” in Baghdad, in order to “absorb the shock felt by those who had been left behind in Syria.”

Damascus airport after the collapse of the Assad regime. (AFP file)

‘It was not a maneuver... we were deceived’

On November 30, 2024, three days after the launch of Operation Deterrence of Aggression to topple the Syrian regime, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani held a phone call with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

At that time, Syrian opposition factions had seized control of the Aleppo countryside. Sudani told Assad that “Syria’s security is tied to Iraq’s national security.” The following day, the opposition encircled Hama. Sudani did not call Assad again.

In Nineveh, the northern Iraqi province that borders Syria, Shiite militia leaders attempted to send reinforcements to Syria, since “as the Syrian factions advanced, the number of Iran-aligned fighters was far smaller than in previous years.” A militia official in Nineveh said they told their fighters, “You must protect the Shiites and the shrines in Syria,” and many volunteers were eager to join.

Kadhim al-Fartousi, spokesman for Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, which had been active in Syria since 2013, said the group withdrew in late 2023. “Our mission was over,” he said.

Until 2018, Syria was crowded with more than 150,000 fighters from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Hezbollah and Iraqi militias, according to Iraqi and Syrian security estimates. The Syrian army under the former regime appeared smaller than the foreign forces operating on its territory. By December 2023, something had changed.

The Revolutionary Guard allowed several Shiite groups to leave after consultations with Assad. It was widely said that a “regional deal” had driven this shift.

As part of the partial withdrawal of Iranian-backed forces from Syria in 2023, Assad was attempting to regain Syria’s seat in the Arab League. It required significant time and diplomatic maneuvering to prepare for an almost impossible reintegration with the Arab world, which ultimately did not materialize.

When Operation Deterrence of Aggression began in November 2024, the number of Iranian groups in Syria had fallen to several thousand, but Assad’s return to the Arab fold was not complete.

As opposition factions advanced toward Damascus, the prevailing belief was that Shiite groups were moving to plug a gap that no one had noticed.

On December 2, 2024, dozens of fighters infiltrated Syria at night via an unofficial military road, but United States aircraft struck their convoys near Al-Bukamal. After that, it became clear that those who had been eager to enter Syria were backing off.

The next morning, Syrian opposition forces seized 14 towns in Hama and turned to the battle for Homs. That day, Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah said “it is too early to decide on sending military support to Syria.”

A senior member of a Shiite armed group said he asked his superiors in Baghdad about the first days of Operation Deterrence of Aggression. “Do not worry... Syria may fall to the opposition, but Damascus will hold,” they told him, referring to Assad’s grip on the capital.

“A week later,” he added, “we could no longer comprehend what had happened.”

Before the opposition reached Homs, Shiite groups assumed the advance would stop there. A commander said intelligence reports reviewed by officials in Iraq’s National Security Service, the Popular Mobilization Forces leadership and militia commanders indicated that Russia and Iran would halt the opposition’s momentum and that Homs would be the decisive point.

But Russia used its air superiority sparingly. As opposition factions moved from Hama toward Homs on December 6, 2024, aircraft believed to be Russian struck the Al-Rastan bridge linking the two cities with destructive force, but not enough to prevent convoys from crossing.

Later aerial footage showed Sukhoi jets armed with missiles sitting unused at Russia’s Hmeimim airbase as opposition fighters crossed the bridge into Homs, which was fully taken by dawn on December 7.

At this point, many within the so-called Resistance Axis became convinced that the swift advance of the opposition was not a mere maneuver. The militia commander said they realized “the Iranians had given us conflicting signals... maybe they were deceived too.”

Questions about the roles of Tehran and Moscow remained unresolved. Shiite factions had no clear answers in the months following Assad’s escape.

Today, Fartousi, the Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada spokesman, believes that “the Russian and Iranian position only shifted after the Assad regime retreated, the forces holding the ground collapsed and the battle turned into a confrontation with the people.”

But sources from factions active in Syria since 2013 spoke of “a decision taken early by Iran not to wage a battle in Syria due to far more complex regional calculations.”

According to these sources, “Iran was not confident of favorable outcomes had it confronted the opposition’s advance, because it realized too late that Moscow was acting independently in Syria.”

In the end, the pillars of the alliance between Moscow, Tehran and Assad appeared to be drifting apart, taking separate battlefield decisions that enabled the opposition’s rapid advance and Assad’s even faster escape. What is certain, the Shiite commander said, is that “the Iraqi groups were not central to the discussions that led to what happened.”

By then, more than ten Iraqi factions had spent over a decade on the Syrian front, during which thousands of fighters were drawn into a sea of blood.

Assad shakes hands with Iraqi PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Damascus. (File photo)

‘And the wheel turns’

At six in the morning on December 8, 2024, former Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdulmahdi posted on X about how tables turn and the “aggressor” is overtaken by events. Shock swept through Shiite political forces in Baghdad. Assad had fled and the regime had fallen.

Two days after the liberation, all factions had left Syrian territory and Assad was in Moscow. On December 12, 2024, Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law Coalition and a long-time ally of Assad, declared that “the goal of what happened in Damascus is to stir the street in Baghdad.” Public opinion erupted with questions.

Shiite political circles in Baghdad struggled to absorb the shock. Private discussions intensified around “the future of the Shiites in Iraq,” dominated by deep confusion, according to participants in closed-door meetings held in the weeks following Assad’s escape.

They said Shiite decision-makers found no answers regarding what had happened in Syria or Iran’s role, and many struggled to answer how Iraq and the region would change after Assad.

One participant in a private session held in January 2025 said the crisis in Syria was not about Assad’s escape or the collapse of the Resistance Axis, but for Iraqi Shiites it was about “redefining their role after old alliances and balances had crumbled.”

Secondary effects of this difficult debate emerged within Shiite groups. Many within the resistance environment began promoting the concept of a “Shiite federation” stretching from Iraq’s Samarra to Basra on top of vast oil reserves. The idea faded quickly, like cold ash.

Talk of “Shiite governance” intensified. A militia commander said: “Shiite forces in recent months focused on strengthening the domestic scene and consolidating their presence in political life, which explains their active participation in the elections held on November 11, 2025, and the victory of armed factions in seats in the new parliament.”

It appeared that all those who had fought in Syria won seats in the new legislature. Asaib Ahl al-Haq, led by Qais al-Khazali, secured 28 seats. The Badr Organization, led by Hadi al-Amiri, won 18. The Rights bloc, linked to Kataib Hezbollah, won six. A list affiliated with Kataib Imam Ali won three. The Services Alliance, led by Shibl al-Zaidi, won nine seats.

These groups are now proposing a transitional project built on new Shiite roles, driven by the growing ambition of leaders such as Khazali to craft an umbrella that shields Shiite groups from fragmentation by expanding their influence in both the legislative and executive branches of the state.

In March 2025, Khazali was asked about the new Syria. He said: “It is the duty and interest of the Iraqi state to engage with it, as long as those governments represent their countries.”

A Shiite leader said the moment Assad fled was not a Syrian event as much as “an earthquake in Shiite consciousness inside Iraq,” pushing everyone to reconsider the alliances that had shaped the region for years.

But beneath this transformation lie lingering questions and doubts about “the future of the Iranian doctrine itself,” now facing major disruption after four decades of uninterrupted influence across the region.

“The answer,” the commander said, “has not yet matured.”


New Political, Military Reality in Lebanon a Year after Assad’s Ouster 

People raise the Syrian flag during the one-year anniversary marking the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Tripoli, Lebanon.
People raise the Syrian flag during the one-year anniversary marking the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Tripoli, Lebanon.
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New Political, Military Reality in Lebanon a Year after Assad’s Ouster 

People raise the Syrian flag during the one-year anniversary marking the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Tripoli, Lebanon.
People raise the Syrian flag during the one-year anniversary marking the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Tripoli, Lebanon.

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria in December 2024 created major political, security and economic changes in Lebanon. Beirut also rid itself of what remained of Damascus’ influence - after Syria withdrew its forces from Lebanon in 2005 following 30 years of military and political hegemony - through Assad’s allies, namely Hezbollah.

With the ouster Assad, Lebanon became free to make its political decisions away from the influence of Damascus and its allies. Lebanon and Syria can establish mutual official relations, secure their shared border and improve the trade exchange between them.

Tehran-Beirut route severed

Head of Lebanon’s Saydet al-Jabal Gathering, former MP Fares Souaid told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Lebanon has changed. The most important thing that happened was that the new Syria severed the Tehran-Beirut route that used to supply Hezbollah with all of its security, military and financial means.”

Now, the party has to resort to smuggling to get what it needs, he added. “That option is not secured by military units working for Iran, forcing Hezbollah to approach the new situation in Lebanon with a lot more pragmatism than before.”

He said the party has been forced to take a “humble” approach to “critical issues.”

“We saw how Hezbollah did not quit the government even though it objected to cabinet decisions, especially the one related to imposing state monopoly over arms,” he explained. The decision effectively calls on Hezbollah to disarm.

The party was unable to take any steps to counter the decision because the “real route that has been feeding it has been cut,” Souaid stressed.

Developments, past and present, have shown that anything negative or positive taking place in Syria will impact Lebanon, he went on to say. “If Syria is well, then Lebanon is well.”

He said Lebanon still believes that Syria under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has a promising future and relations between Beirut and Damascus will also be promising.

The relations are already on the right track with the establishment of joint security and military committees sponsored by Saudi Arabia, he remarked. Efforts have already been exerted to secure the shared border between them ahead of demarcation starting from the Shebaa Farms.

Such coordination between Lebanese and Syrian security and military agencies “never happened under Assad rule. So, this is a new development for both countries,” he revealed.

Treaties with Syria

The neighbors currently appeared focused on reshaping their relations in a way that preserves their mutual interests. Souaid acknowledged, however, that pending complex issues remain.

He underlined the need to annul all political, security and economic treaties that were signed during Syria’s hegemony over Lebanon.

Lebanon has appointed an ambassador to Damascus, while the latter has yet to name an envoy to Beirut, he noted.

He also said that the Syrians are prioritizing resolving the issue of Syrian detainees held in Lebanese jails.

The issue is a “black mark” in the relations between the two countries. Lebanon’s justice minister must resolve this file so that it does not complicate efforts to forge good ties, Souaid urged.

Pending files

Lebanon has been perceived as dealing “coolly” with Syria’s insistence on resolving the detainee file.

Some Lebanese officials have for years also complained about Syrian refugees in Lebanon and the burden they have on the state. An informed security source told Asharq Al-Awsat that with Assad’s collapse, this issue was no longer a “major crisis”.

It revealed that half of the Syrian refugees who were in Arsal and the northern Akkar region in Lebanon have returned to their home country. This has been felt by the drop in the numbers of Syrian laborers in Lebanon.

The shared border is another issue of pressing concern for the neighbors.

After Assad’s ouster, Lebanon’s northern and eastern borders are no longer open to the regime’s allies and outlaws, especially drug and other smugglers.

The source said: “The most important achievement on the security level has been curbing the smuggling of weapons from Syria to Lebanon and money from Lebanon to Syria.”

“Captagon factories along both sides of the border have also been destroyed, leading to the dismantling of drug smuggling networks and culminating in the arrest of Lebanon’s most wanted drug smuggler, Noah Zeiter, who was seeking refuge in Syria before Assad’s ouster,” added the source.