Baghdad After Damascus: Questions About the Day After

 
US helicopters accompany Secretary Antony Blinken as he heads to the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 13, 2024 (Reuters)
US helicopters accompany Secretary Antony Blinken as he heads to the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 13, 2024 (Reuters)
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Baghdad After Damascus: Questions About the Day After

 
US helicopters accompany Secretary Antony Blinken as he heads to the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 13, 2024 (Reuters)
US helicopters accompany Secretary Antony Blinken as he heads to the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 13, 2024 (Reuters)

On November 24, 2024, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed what seemed to be its final attack on Israel. The announcement came two weeks after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, with armed groups declaring “Syria is free.”

The claim, shared on a Telegram channel, marked the end of the “Axis of Resistance” operations before a ceasefire took effect in Lebanon.

On November 27, 2024, Syrian factions advanced in western Aleppo, sparking political alarm in Baghdad.

Rumors spread that “Baghdad could be the next target” after Assad fled to Russia, prompting increased diplomatic talks with Western and Arab capitals.

Iraqi forces have mobilized along the Syrian border, citing concerns over the infiltration of “armed elements” and fears of a broader collapse.

This buildup began earlier, during the Syrian factions’ rapid advance toward Damascus in just 10 days.

Since November 27, Iraqi army and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) leaders have visited the border more than six times, the latest on December 13, 2024.

Iraq faces uncertainty after the fall of Assad, Iran’s retreat, and the decline of Hezbollah’s power. Key questions now center on the “new rulers” in Damascus, the “future of Iranian influence,” and the “direction of Iraq’s political process.”

The urgency of these issues grew after UN envoy Mohammed Al-Hassan met with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf on December 12, 2024.

“I briefed Sayyed al-Sistani on recent UN discussions about Iraq,” Al-Hassan said.

“The region is changing rapidly, and Iraq needs bold, urgent decisions. We urge leaders to act quickly and take overdue steps toward reconciliation and unity,” he added.

Asharq Al-Awsat spoke to representatives of six Iraqi parties about Al-Hassan's remarks.

Many speculated about a “collapse of the political system” or a return to pre-2003 Iraq, with most concerns coming from traditional Shiite parties.

Recent events have revolved around Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani. On December 10, 2024, US CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla met Kurdish SDF officials in Syria before heading to Baghdad to meet Sudani, who reaffirmed Iraq’s position on “respecting the Syrian people’s choices.”

The following day, Sudani visited Jordan to meet King Abdullah II, who later traveled to Abu Dhabi to meet UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed. Sudani returned to Baghdad, received a call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and met with a US delegation. Meanwhile, Germany’s defense minister visited Baghdad and Erbil.

Talks across the region have focused on “securing borders” with Syria. International discussions, involving US President Joe Biden and other Western officials, highlight a global push to bolster security in Syria’s neighboring states.

Despite these efforts, Shiite leaders in Baghdad remain unclear on Iraq’s future or how to handle mounting regional pressures.

A former government advisor described Iraq’s current situation as the most fragile in years, with Syria’s shifting dynamics raising serious questions for Iraq’s political stability.

Iraq Faces Rising Tensions After Assad’s Fall

Mutual fears are growing across the Iraq-Syria border. In Syria, concerns focus on Iraqi groups alarmed by the new regime, while in Iraq, fears center on potential unrest at the Sayyida Zainab shrine in Damascus, which could destabilize the region.

A senior Shiite figure told Asharq Al-Awsat that Assad had granted Iran full security control over the shrine, but this arrangement ended with his departure.

“Now, everyone is afraid,” the source said, though international assurances suggest Damascus will not unravel as quickly as Assad’s fall.

Since Assad fled to Moscow, Iraqi Shiite communities have voiced concerns over the safety of Shiite shrines in Syria, amplified by a flood of social media posts. However, Iraqi diplomats have engaged regional powers to prevent escalation, warning that even a minor misstep could ignite conflict.

Inside Iraq, fears are mounting among Shiite leaders about losing control over factions or being outmaneuvered by Sunni and Kurdish rivals. These groups might exploit Iran’s retreat, seen by some as a "tactical withdrawal," to shift Iraq’s political balance.

Shiite politicians also worry the Iraqi premier could distance himself from Iran-aligned factions and pursue a new political deal, using “protecting Baghdad” as his justification.

“Sudani holds a strong card,” one political adviser noted.

Publicly, Shiite leaders focus on warnings about Syria’s “extremist rule” and the risk of militants crossing into Iraq. Privately, they remain unsettled about Iraq’s next steps as regional dynamics shift.

Recent developments underscore these tensions. Sudani reportedly sent a message to Syrian authorities, pledging non-interference while seeking assurances about the safety of Shiite communities.

Iraq’s stance toward Syria shifted after airstrikes hit convoys carrying Shiite fighters and Syria’s army collapsed. These events freed Sudani from earlier obligations to Iran-backed factions, allowing him to adopt a more flexible position.

Iraq's Political Crossroads: Regional Pressures and US Strategy

A Western diplomat in Baghdad, who spoke anonymously, said that “stability in Iraq is now a top priority for the international community,” but regional pressures are pushing to dismantle the militias that have fueled instability.

This comes as political discussions focus on a question raised by many: Is the fall of regimes in the Resistance Axis moving toward Iraq? Some consider it an unlikely scenario without solid evidence.

An Iraqi politician, who claimed insight into US-Iraq talks, suggested that the US has engaged Israel, which wants to “finish the job of removing the Resistance Axis, with Iraq as the last standing member.”

The theory suggests that Israel sees Baghdad as “Iran's most important asset,” and Tehran might use Iraq’s resources to revive the collapsing axis, meaning the crisis won’t end with Assad.

To counter Israel’s objectives, the US reportedly proposed an “alternative plan” with similar goals.

An Iraqi adviser explained that the new approach involves disarming militias, integrating the PMF into the state, and removing militia offices from Sunni areas.

This adviser also said that the US wants to hold new elections in Iraq and believes “Iran will have to accept this new reality.”

However, figures from Iraq’s Coordination Framework dismissed this as “fantasy,” although they acknowledge that messages reaching Baghdad indicate that “cutting Iraq’s ties to Iran is now seen as essential.”

Sidelining entrenched groups in Iraq’s government is difficult, and some believe this could only be achieved through negotiations with Iran.

A political adviser noted, “It’s hard to remove Iranian influence so easily. They are involved in ongoing discussions in the region, and if Iraq’s political situation changes, Iran will be a part of it.”

The Middle East’s Shifting Landscape and Sudani’s Challenge

In political circles, a simple question is being raised: “Why should Baghdad be targeted when it stayed out of the support war and didn’t intervene to prevent Assad’s fall?” This reflects a desire to avoid the consequences of the post-conflict situation.

But this is not the regional reality. A series of events suggests that Iraq must change to avoid difficult choices ahead.

A Western diplomat told Asharq Al-Awsat, “The region has changed... it’s clear that the dynamics have shifted, and players must adapt.”

For the first time since 2003, excluding the threat from ISIS in 2014, Iraq’s Shiite forces face mounting pressures, forcing them to decide how to adapt politically.

During his visit to Baghdad on December 13, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken didn't wear a bulletproof vest, unlike his November 2023 trip, symbolizing a more relaxed approach.

He joked with Sudani, saying, “It’s wonderful to fly in from the airport and see the vitality of the city.”

However, Blinken’s reassuring words—calling it the right moment for Iraq to strengthen its sovereignty—are met with skepticism in Iraq.

Officials fear these may be just the comments of a diplomat in his final month, with a Republican administration likely to take a harder line on Iran, and Iraq possibly being the last target of “maximum pressure.”

Iraqi politicians are convinced that “something will happen,” but opinions differ on what that might be. There's speculation about a possible Israeli strike, or if Washington plans to protect Iraq through a new deal aimed at limiting Iranian influence.

Sudani’s aides downplay the likelihood of military strikes but hint at necessary political changes, which could soften the impact of a future US administration under Donald Trump.

However, these changes could create risks, as Sudani’s opponents in both Baghdad and Tehran fear unforeseen consequences.



What to Know about the Latest Effort to End Türkiye's 40-year Kurdish Conflict

FILED - 02 November 2041, Hesse, Frankfurt_Main: A man displays a flag with the image of imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan at the Kurdish Newroz celebration in Frankfurt. Photo: Boris Roessler/dpa
FILED - 02 November 2041, Hesse, Frankfurt_Main: A man displays a flag with the image of imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan at the Kurdish Newroz celebration in Frankfurt. Photo: Boris Roessler/dpa
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What to Know about the Latest Effort to End Türkiye's 40-year Kurdish Conflict

FILED - 02 November 2041, Hesse, Frankfurt_Main: A man displays a flag with the image of imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan at the Kurdish Newroz celebration in Frankfurt. Photo: Boris Roessler/dpa
FILED - 02 November 2041, Hesse, Frankfurt_Main: A man displays a flag with the image of imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan at the Kurdish Newroz celebration in Frankfurt. Photo: Boris Roessler/dpa

A group of 30 Kurdish fighters clad in camouflage fatigues burned their weapons in a large cauldron in northern Iraq on Friday, in a symbolic gesture marking the first concrete step in an effort to end one of the Middle East’s longest-running insurgencies.

The ceremonial laying down of arms by members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK -- including 15 women — comes months after the group’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, called on it to disarm and disband as part of a new peace effort with Türkiye. Ocalan repeated that call in a video message to his fighters this week.

The process in Türkiye was initiated in October by Devlet Bahceli, a firebrand ultranationalist politician who has usually opposed any concessions to Kurdish identity or rights.

While Turkish officials have welcomed the first step toward the PKK’s disarmament, questions remain about the future of Kurdish fighters in Syria.

What is the PKK? The Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, has waged an armed insurgency against Türkiye since 1984, initially with the aim of establishing a Kurdish state in the southeast of the country. Over time, the objective evolved into a campaign for autonomy and rights for Kurds within Türkiye.

The conflict between militants and state forces, which has spread beyond Türkiye’s borders into Iraq and Syria, has killed tens of thousands of people. The PKK is considered to be a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the United States and the European Union.

Who is Ocalan? Abdullah Ocalan, who as a student of political science in Ankara became deeply involved in leftist movements, formed the PKK in 1978 as a Marxist organization. He fled to Syria in 1979, along with other PKK members, where he remained until 1998, when Syria expelled him under intense pressure from Türkiye.

Ocalan was captured in Kenya in 1999 and imprisoned on Imrali island in the Sea of Marmara, where he remains to this day. His death sentence for treason was commuted to a life term in prison after Türkiye abolished the death penalty.

The 76-year-old endures as a symbol for Kurdish independence and rights and continues to wield influence over the Kurdish movement, with past messages relayed through family members or lawyers resonating beyond Türkiye, in Iraq and Syria.

Push for peace

In October, Bahceli, a close ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, suggested Ocalan could be granted parole if he renounces violence and disbands the PKK.

It was a major shift for the hardline politician who had previously strongly supported the state’s military action against the militant group and its affiliates in neighboring Syria and rejected any notion of negotiation.

In a message delivered through senior officials of the pro-Kurdish People's Equality and Democracy Party, or DEM, Ocalan called on the PKK leadership to take the decision to disband and disarm in February.

The PKK announced a unilateral ceasefire in March in response to Ocalan’s call and later announced its decision to disarm.

It was not immediately clear what concessions, if any, the Kurdish groups would get in return. PKK officials have said they expect former fighters to be given a path to integrate into the political system in Türkiye.

There are also concerns that some splinter groups may emerge within the PKK and that attacks may continue.

Soon after Bahceli's announcement, the PKK claimed an attack on Türkiye’s key aerospace company outside of Ankara that killed several people.

Previous attempts

There have been several peace efforts between the Turkish state and the PKK over the years, including secret negotiations held in Oslo, Norway from 2009 until 2011. However, none have yielded results.

The last attempt to reach a peace deal took place between 2013 and 2015 with a series of talks between Turkish officials and Ocalan, who declared a ceasefire and withdrew fighters to bases in northern Iraq.

Turkish officials took steps to improve Kurdish rights, including allowing Kurdish-language broadcasts. The process collapsed in July 2015, after a series of violent attacks, including one by the ISIS group that killed 33 pro-Kurdish activists.

Since then, Türkiye has cracked down on its pro-Kurdish movement and has jailed thousands of people, including the former leader of the main pro-Kurdish political party, Selahattin Demirtas, over alleged links to the PKK.

Reshaping the region

The latest peace effort comes at a time when Türkiye and the Kurds are both seeking security to face the challenges in the Middle East.

The renewed peace initiative unfolds amid fundamental changes reshaping the region, including the reconfiguration of power in Syria after the toppling of President Bashar Assad, the weakening of the Hezbollah militant movement in Lebanon, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

Türkiye strongly supports a deal reached between Syria’s new administration and the Kurdish-led and US backed Syrian Democratic Forces under which the SDF forces would merge with the new Syrian national army. The US envoy to Syria told The Associated Press this week that the sides remain at odds over the merger.

Hamish Kinnear, Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, said Ocalan’s decision to abandon the armed struggle coincides with a period when the PKK’s leverage is weak due to military setbacks and regional isolation.

“The PKK’s armed struggle was already faltering in the face of advances by Türkiye’s military, while its popularity among its traditional base was in decline,” Kinnear said. ”Ultimately, the peace talks were a useful off ramp in which improvement of Kurdish rights could still be pursued."

However, some believe the main aim of the reconciliation effort is for Erdogan’s government to garner Kurdish support for a new constitution that would allow him to remain in power beyond 2028, when his term ends.

Bahceli has openly called for a new constitution, saying it was essential to keep Erdogan in power for Türkiye’s future. Erdogan and Bahceli are reportedly seeking parliamentary support from the DEM.