How the Gaza Truce Exposed Israeli Intelligence Failures

FILE - Fighters from the Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, control the crowd as Red Cross vehicles come to collect Israeli hostages under a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, Jan. 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Abed Hajjar, File)
FILE - Fighters from the Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, control the crowd as Red Cross vehicles come to collect Israeli hostages under a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, Jan. 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Abed Hajjar, File)
TT
20

How the Gaza Truce Exposed Israeli Intelligence Failures

FILE - Fighters from the Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, control the crowd as Red Cross vehicles come to collect Israeli hostages under a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, Jan. 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Abed Hajjar, File)
FILE - Fighters from the Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, control the crowd as Red Cross vehicles come to collect Israeli hostages under a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, Jan. 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Abed Hajjar, File)

The public appearance of Hussein Fayyad, a senior commander in Hamas' military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, following the Gaza truce, has stunned Israel’s security establishment.

Eight months earlier, Israel had declared him assassinated.

Fayyad, known by his nom de guerre “Abu Hamza,” was seen addressing residents in the streets of Beit Hanoun, a town in northern Gaza. He spoke about “victory and combat,” a development Israeli officials have described as a “security failure.”

In May, the Israeli army announced his killing and even released a photo purportedly confirming his death.

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the recent video of Fayyad was recorded during the funeral of several fighters from the Beit Hanoun Battalion, who were killed in clashes with the Israeli army.

Among them was a fighter from the Abu Amsha family, who reportedly led an operation that killed Israeli soldiers shortly before the ceasefire came into effect.

Fayyad’s recent appearance sparked controversy in Israel.

His video, which circulated widely on social media, prompted the Israeli army to issue a statement on Wednesday. The military had previously declared Fayyad’s death, claiming he was responsible for multiple attacks, including launching anti-tank missiles and mortars.

However, after further checks, the Israeli army admitted that the intelligence used to confirm his death was not accurate.

As of Thursday afternoon, the statement was only available in Hebrew, with no translation for foreign media or Arabic speakers.

Fayyad gained prominence after the 2014 war, where he led Hamas fighters and inflicted heavy losses on Israeli forces. He became the commander of the Beit Hanoun Battalion, reorganizing it after the conflict.

During the 2021 Gaza conflict, Fayyad directed mortar attacks on Israeli forces near the Erez Crossing and fired anti-tank missiles at targets along the Gaza border.

Fayyad survived several assassination attempts, including one in the latest conflict.

Fayyad’s case is not the first instance where Israeli military reports have been inaccurate.

According to Hamas sources, the Israeli military issued inaccurate or false reports regarding the assassination of Hamas and Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades leaders during the conflict.

Some of the individuals targeted were either injured and later recovered, or were not present at the locations claimed to have been hit.

The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades operate a military structure comprising five divisions: the Northern Division, Gaza Division, Central Division, Khan Younis Division, and Rafah Division.

Each division includes several brigades, which are made up of units, factions, and military formations, collectively comprising thousands of fighters.



Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
TT
20

Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)

The Iran-Israel war has helped strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu domestically and overseas, just as his grip on power looked vulnerable.

On the eve of launching strikes on Iran, his government looked to be on the verge of collapse, with a drive to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews threatening to scupper his fragile coalition.

Nearly two years on from Hamas's unprecedented attack in 2023, Netanyahu was under growing domestic criticism for his handling of the war in Gaza, where dozens of hostages remain unaccounted for, said AFP.

Internationally too, he was coming under pressure including from longstanding allies, who since the war with Iran began have gone back to expressing support.

Just days ago, polls were predicting Netanyahu would lose his majority if new elections were held, but now, his fortunes appear to have reversed, and Israelis are seeing in "Bibi" the man of the moment.

– 'Reshape the Middle East' –

For decades, Netanyahu has warned of the risk of a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran -- a fear shared by most Israelis.

Yonatan Freeman, a geopolitics expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Netanyahu's argument that the pre-emptive strike on Iran was necessary draws "a lot of public support" and that the prime minister has been "greatly strengthened".

Even the opposition has rallied behind him.

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is my political rival, but his decision to strike Iran at this moment in time is the right one," opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote in a Jerusalem Post op-ed.

A poll published Saturday by a conservative Israeli channel showed that 54 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the prime minister.

The public had had time to prepare for the possibility of an offensive against Iran, with Netanyahu repeatedly warning that Israel was fighting for its survival and had an opportunity to "reshape the Middle East."

During tit-for-tat military exchanges last year, Israel launched air raids on targets in Iran in October that are thought to have severely damaged Iranian air defenses.

Israel's then-defense minister Yoav Gallant said the strikes had shifted "the balance of power" and had "weakened" Iran.

"In fact, for the past 20 months, Israelis have been thinking about this (a war with Iran)," said Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel's Open University.

Since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Netanyahu has ordered military action in Gaza, against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as targets in Syria where long-time leader Bashar al-Assad fell in December last year.

"Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who reshuffles the deck himself -- not the one who reacts -- and here he is clearly asserting his Churchillian side, which is, incidentally, his model," Charbit said.

"But depending on the outcome and the duration (of the war), everything could change, and Israelis might turn against Bibi and demand answers."

– Silencing critics –

For now, however, people in Israel see the conflict with Iran as a "necessary war," according to Nitzan Perelman, a researcher specialized in Israel at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France.

"Public opinion supports this war, just as it has supported previous ones," she added.

"It's very useful for Netanyahu because it silences criticism, both inside the country and abroad."

In the weeks ahead of the Iran strikes, international criticism of Netanyahu and Israel's military had reached unprecedented levels.

After more than 55,000 deaths in Gaza, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, and a blockade that has produced famine-like conditions there, Israel has faced growing isolation and the risk of sanctions, while Netanyahu himself is the subject of an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes.

But on Sunday, two days into the war with Iran, the Israeli leader received a phone call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has held talks with numerous counterparts.

"There's more consensus in Europe in how they see Iran, which is more equal to how Israel sees Iran," explained Freeman from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that Israel was doing "the dirty work... for all of us."

The idea that a weakened Iran could lead to regional peace and the emergence of a new Middle East is appealing to the United States and some European countries, according to Freeman.

But for Perelman, "Netanyahu is exploiting the Iranian threat, as he always has."