Stay or Go? The Dilemma of Türkiye's Syrian Refugees 

For many Syrian refugees living in Türkiye, the idea of going home raises many worrying questions. (AFP)
For many Syrian refugees living in Türkiye, the idea of going home raises many worrying questions. (AFP)
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Stay or Go? The Dilemma of Türkiye's Syrian Refugees 

For many Syrian refugees living in Türkiye, the idea of going home raises many worrying questions. (AFP)
For many Syrian refugees living in Türkiye, the idea of going home raises many worrying questions. (AFP)

More than 50,000 Syrian refugees have left Türkiye to return home since Bashar al-Assad's ouster. But for many others living in the country, the thought raises a host of worrying questions.

In Altindag, a northeastern suburb of Ankara home to many Syrians, Radigue Muhrabi, who has a newborn and two other children, said she could not quite envisage going back to Syria "where everything is so uncertain".

"My husband used to work with my father at his shoe shop in Aleppo but it was totally destroyed. We don't know anything about work opportunities nor schools for the kids," she said.

After the civil war began in 2011, Syria's second city was badly scarred by fighting between the opposition and Russian-backed regime forces.

Even so, daily life in Türkiye has not been easy for the Syrian refugees who have faced discrimination, political threats of expulsion and even physical attacks.

In August 2021, an angry mob smashed up shops and cars thought to belong to Syrians in Altindag as anti-migrant sentiment boiled over at a time of deepening economic insecurity in Türkiye.

Basil Ahmed, a 37-year-old motorcycle mechanic, recalled the terror his two young children experienced when the mob smashed the windows of their home.

Even so, he said he was not thinking of going straight back.

- 'Not the same Syria' -

"We have nothing in Aleppo. Here, despite the difficulties, we have a life," he said.

"My children were born here, they don't know Syria."

As the Assad regime brutally cracked down on the population, millions fled in fear, explained Murat Erdogan, a university professor who specializes in migration.

"Now he's gone, many are willing to return but the Syria they left is not the same place," he told AFP.

"Nobody can predict what the new Syrian government will be like, how they will enforce their authority, what Israel will do nor how the clashes (with Kurdish fighters) near the Turkish border will develop," he said.

"The lack of security is a major drawback."

On top of that is the massive infrastructure damage caused by more than 13 years of civil war, with very limited electricity supplies, a ruined public health service and problems with finding housing.

At the SGDD-ASAM, a local association offering workshops and advice to migrants, 16-year-old Rahseh Mahruz was preparing to go back to Aleppo with her parents.

But she knew she would not find the music lessons there that she has enjoyed in Ankara.

- 'No emotional ties to Syria' -

"All my memories, the things I normally do are here. There's nothing there, not even electricity or internet. I don't want to go but my family has decided we will," she said.

Of the 2.9 million Syrians in Türkiye, 1.7 million are under 18 and have few emotional links to their homeland, said the association's director Ibrahim Vurgun Kavlak.

"Most of these youngsters don't have strong emotional, psychological or social ties with Syria. Their idea of Syria is based on what their families have told them," he explained.

And there may even be problems with the language barrier, said professor Erdogan.

"Around 816,000 Syrian children are currently studying in Turkish schools. They have been taught in Turkish for years and some of them don't even know Arabic," he said.

During a visit to Türkiye earlier this week, EU crisis commissioner Hadja Lahbib told AFP she shared "the sense of uncertainty felt by the refugees".

"The situation is unstable, it's changing and nobody knows which direction it will go in," she said.

"I've come with 235 million euros ($245 million) worth of aid for refugees in Syria and in the surrounding countries like Türkiye and Jordan, to meet them and see what worries them and how to respond to that," she said.

If there ends up being a huge wave of Syrians heading home, it will likely have an unsettling impact on certain sectors of Türkiye's workforce.

Although they are often paid low wages, commonly under the table, their absence would leave a gaping hole, notably in the textile and construction industries.

For Erdogan, the economic shock of such a shift could ultimately be beneficial for Türkiye, forcing it to move away from the exploitation of cheap labor.

"We cannot continue a development model based on exploitation," he said.



Will Trump Allow Russia to Set up a Military Base in Sudan?

Senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Cameron Hudson. (Just Security)
Senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Cameron Hudson. (Just Security)
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Will Trump Allow Russia to Set up a Military Base in Sudan?

Senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Cameron Hudson. (Just Security)
Senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Cameron Hudson. (Just Security)

American former diplomat Cameron Hudson said US President Donald Trump’s new administration will show an interest in the war in Sudan because it does not want the country to become a haven for terrorism.

Hudson, who is a senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told Asharq Al-Awsat from Nairobi that Washington wants to preserve security along the entirety of the Red Sea coast.

This means that Iran and Russia will not be allowed to establish any bases there, he stressed.

Moreover, Hudson revealed that the Trump administration wants to expand the Abraham peace accords in the Middle East. Sudan is a signatory to the accords, he noted, while wondering how it can be implemented there amid the ongoing war between the Sudanese army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Peace in the Middle East is essential for there to be peace in Sudan, he remarked.

Noting a previous agreement between Sudan and Russia for the latter to set up a naval base there, Hudson questioned the credibility of the deal.

If it is true, then it will certainly be a major problem for Trump, he added. He will most likely make a strong reaction that will inform Sudan that it made the bad decision.

Trump does not want Russia to threaten his interests in the Red Sea, he went on to say.

The administration has yet to name a team on African affairs, he added, but hoped that it will do so soon because the situation in Sudan is pressing.

He expected Washington to remain abreast the developments and changes in the war in Sudan.

The army appears to be on the way to recapturing the capital Khartoum, but the RSF may seize the city of Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, which will in turn allow it to capture the whole of Darfur.

Hudson said he does not know how the Trump administration would respond to such a scenario. As it stands, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has accused the RSF of committing genocide, so it is unlikely that Washington will talk to them should any negotiations take place.

Regardless of what happens, Hudson said he was confident the Trump administration will do better than its predecessor which had viewed both the army and RSF equally.

Moreover, he said former President Joe Biden’s administration was slow in responding to the October 25, 2021, coup that took place in Sudan. The war soon followed.

The administration only hired an envoy to Sudan a year after the war erupted, he noted. It also wavered in how it dealt with the army and RSF, treating them both equally, before later saying it will only talk to the civilian forces.

The forces, however, were not organized and did not have a vision over how to stop the war, Hudson continued.

On sanctions against army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, Hudson said the administration should have done so at the beginning of the war, not the final weeks of its term.

The sanctions are still in place and the Trump administration has an opportunity to use them to determine how thing unfold in Sudan, such as set conditions that could pave the way for lifting them, specifically off Burhan, Hudson explained.

The former diplomat described Burhan as “very wise” and that he is aware of how destructive the war has been on Sudan, its people and economy.

Burhan wants to stop the war, but there should first be a solution to the RSF threats. A sustainable solution is needed in Sudan so that war does not erupt again, he urged.

Furthermore, he added that Trump enjoys good ties with the Arab countries neighboring Sudan. These countries have interests in Sudan and they can be part of a deal that can help end the war.