SDF Factions: Uncertain Scenarios in Complex Relations with Damascus

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa delivers a speech following the “Declaration of the Syrian Revolution’s Victory” (Syrian Presidency)
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa delivers a speech following the “Declaration of the Syrian Revolution’s Victory” (Syrian Presidency)
TT

SDF Factions: Uncertain Scenarios in Complex Relations with Damascus

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa delivers a speech following the “Declaration of the Syrian Revolution’s Victory” (Syrian Presidency)
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa delivers a speech following the “Declaration of the Syrian Revolution’s Victory” (Syrian Presidency)

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) pose the main challenge to Syria’s new administration, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, as it seeks to move past the conflict and rebuild the state.

While efforts focus on forming a unified army under state control, most factions have agreed to join the Defense Ministry. However, the SDF insists on keeping its independent military structure and refuses to disband or integrate its fighters individually. Instead, it wants to remain a single unit within the new army.
This stance contradicts the administration’s position, which rejects any military force outside the new national army.

Syrian Administration’s Stance on the SDF

The new Syrian administration has repeatedly emphasized that negotiations remain its primary approach to resolving its dispute with the SDF, with several rounds of talks held in recent months.

Syrian government sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that “negotiations are still the main option, and preparations are underway for new rounds in an effort to reach a comprehensive solution that eliminates any risk of future conflict.”

They added that the government’s policy is based on “unifying the country and preventing any military factions from operating outside the Defense Ministry’s authority.”

The sources also stressed that “the Kurdish issue is an internal Syrian matter and should not rely on external actors for a resolution.

Competing Agendas

Khaled al-Shuayti, one of the few Arab military commanders within the SDF in Deir Ezzor, said Arab tribes involved in the SDF through alliances and fighters “will not engage in a confrontation with the new Syrian state.”

Given the geography in which the SDF operates, it has forged alliances with local Arab communities and tribes in surrounding areas. Arab fighters number around 2,000 or slightly more, but they have little influence over the SDF’s internal and external policies.

“If the Kurdish leadership insists on pursuing non-Syrian agendas, Arab fighters will break away from the SDF,” al-Shuayti told Asharq Al-Awsat.

A faction within the SDF, led by Mazloum Abdi, supports talks with Damascus but faces opposition from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leadership, which refuses to disarm before securing key demands.

These include keeping the SDF as a single unit within Syria’s Defense Ministry and granting Kurds some form of autonomy.

Abdi, born Ferhad Abdi Sahin in Ain al-Arab (Kobani) in 1967, fought alongside the PKK and is a close associate of its jailed leader, Abdullah Ocalan. He helped establish the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which later became the military wing of the Democratic Union Party (PYD).

Abdi’s push for negotiations with Damascus coincides with expectations that Ocalan may soon call for disarmament and an end to military action.

Al-Shuayti believes Abdi is stalling to ease pressure while securing political gains for Syria’s Kurds, including a role in governance and constitutional guarantees.

Researcher Firas Faham from the Abaad Center for Strategic Studies told Asharq Al-Awsat that the new Syrian administration prefers diplomacy with the SDF, using Türkiye’s military threats as leverage to push the group into talks with Damascus.

However, the SDF is unlikely to make major decisions until US President Donald Trump clarifies his stance on withdrawing American troops from Syria.

“The SDF wants to retain its military structure within the Syrian army and maintain special administrative control over its territories,” Faham said.

“Damascus, on the other hand, may be open to granting Kurdish local councils some autonomy and recognizing certain cultural rights. But when it comes to military control, the Syrian government remains firm on maintaining a unified command,” he added.

Possible Scenarios

According to Faham, the future of relations between Damascus and the Syrian Democratic Forces hinges largely on whether Trump decides to keep or withdraw American troops from Syria.

The first scenario is a negotiated agreement in which the SDF drops what Damascus considers unrealistic demands, including maintaining its forces as a unified bloc within the Syrian army and abandoning its push for federal autonomy in areas under its control.

The second scenario is military confrontation if the SDF refuses to reach an agreement with Damascus. In this case, Türkiye could intervene alongside the new Syrian army, leading to a likely military defeat for the SDF without securing any gains.

The third scenario is maintaining the status quo, with the SDF retaining control over its forces and continuing to govern areas east of the Euphrates separately from the new Syrian administration. Currently, the SDF operates like a state within a state, with its own military and security forces and territory beyond Damascus’ control.

Internal divisions within the SDF further complicate the situation. One faction, led by Abdi, aligns with the West, while another, the Qandil faction—considered the most powerful—maintains close ties with Iran. This faction is dominated by PKK leaders from both Syria and Türkiye.

Faham noted that Iran is strengthening its alliance with the Qandil faction within the SDF, viewing it as a tool to maintain influence in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Kurds within Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

Kurdish activist Kurdi Ayubi, an Islamist who opposes the nationalist ideology represented by the SDF and who previously fought with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), estimates that only a few hundred Kurds share his views.

He argues that the real power in SDF-controlled areas remains in the hands of the PKK.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Ayubi explained that “cadres” — fighters who initially served with the PKK and later joined the SDF after the Syrian revolution began — became involved in fighting with the start of the battle of Kobani against ISIS.

These cadres come from various nationalities, including Turkish, Syrian, and Iranian Kurds.

“The Syrian cadres work almost openly, as seen with figures like Abdi, Farhad Shami, and Bulat Jan, alongside prominent women leaders such as Ilham Ahmed, who was a key fighter in the PKK,” added Ayubi.

Ayubi said any agreement with the Syrian government would need approval from Qandil, with the final solution depending on the relationship between Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan and imprisoned PKK leader Ocalan.

He suggested the best approach for Damascus is to follow two paths: one, direct talks with the Qandil faction, and two, engaging with Kurdish tribal leaders in Kobani, Qamishli, and nearby areas.

Ayubi said: “Qandil wants a normal relationship with Damascus, as long as it remains discreet.”

He added that reaching an agreement with Qandil would allow Damascus to enter the region peacefully.



Uncertainty Surrounds Gaza Reconstruction Amid Renewed Israeli Strikes

Palestinian children near the tents of the displaced in Khan Younis. (Reuters)
Palestinian children near the tents of the displaced in Khan Younis. (Reuters)
TT

Uncertainty Surrounds Gaza Reconstruction Amid Renewed Israeli Strikes

Palestinian children near the tents of the displaced in Khan Younis. (Reuters)
Palestinian children near the tents of the displaced in Khan Younis. (Reuters)

Israel’s renewed military strikes on Gaza have cast doubt on efforts to secure international support for the Arab-Islamic reconstruction plan.

Observers and experts argued that rebuilding Gaza is contingent on advancing to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. They highlighted the roles of Egypt and Qatar in mediation, but acknowledge that Israeli and US support for reconstruction remains uncertain.

Israel launched fresh airstrikes across Gaza on Tuesday, vowing to intensify military action following stalled negotiations with Hamas over hostage releases.

Egypt strongly condemned the attacks, warning they undermine peace efforts. In a joint call, the Egyptian president and the Emir of Kuwait urged the international community to push for an immediate ceasefire, the implementation of a two-state solution, and the establishment of a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders.

Despite the violence, diplomatic efforts to promote the reconstruction plan continued. Dr. Abdel Moneim Said, a member of Egypt’s Shura Council, told Asharq Al-Awsat that negotiations and mediation efforts remain active. He described the plan as a vital step toward Gaza’s recovery and broader regional stability.

Ambassador Mohamed Hegazy of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that while Israel has backed away from the ceasefire agreement, Egypt and Arab nations will continue pushing for peace and rebuilding efforts. Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, he hoped that international pressure could prevent further escalation.

Before Israel’s latest strikes, Egypt had intensified its efforts to rally support for the reconstruction plan. Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty engaged in discussions with officials from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Qatar, Palestine, Türkiye, Nigeria, and Indonesia, focusing on implementing the outcomes of the Cairo emergency summit.

Additionally, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry hosted on Monday a meeting with over 100 ambassadors and international organization representatives to discuss rehabilitating Gaza’s healthcare system. Abdelatty stressed that a lasting ceasefire is essential for successful reconstruction. He also announced plans for a reconstruction conference in Cairo to secure funding.

Dr. Ayman Al-Raqab, a Palestinian political scientist at Al-Quds University, identified Israel as the primary obstacle to rebuilding Gaza.

Only the US has the leverage to persuade Israel to agree to a ceasefire, yet Washington has given Tel Aviv the green light to continue its military campaign, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Washington has not taken any concrete steps to support the reconstruction plan,” Al-Raqab said, adding that progress hinges on advancing to the second phase of the ceasefire—something that has yet to be achieved.

Former Egyptian deputy Foreign Minister Ambassador Rakha Ahmed Hassan argued that Israel has deliberately obstructed reconstruction efforts, evidenced by its resistance to negotiations on the second phase of the truce. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that renewed strikes could further Israel’s alleged goal of displacing Palestinians, a move Egypt and Arab states firmly oppose.

The US position on Gaza’s reconstruction has been inconsistent. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce recently stated that the proposed agreement “does not meet expectations,” while former US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff praised Egypt’s efforts but refrained from endorsing the plan. He acknowledged it as a “good-faith step”, but called for further discussions.

The Arab-Islamic reconstruction plan proposes a six-month transitional governance committee composed of independent technocrats under the Palestinian Authority’s oversight. The plan includes temporary housing for displaced Gazans at seven designated sites, capable of sheltering over 1.5 million people. The total cost is estimated at $53 billion, with an expected five-year timeline for completion.