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Experts to Asharq Al-Awsat: Trump Confronts Houthis with New Reality, Strikes Not Enough to Defeat them 

A plume of smoke billows during a US strike on Yemen's Houthi-held capital Sanaa early on March 16, 2025. (AFP)
A plume of smoke billows during a US strike on Yemen's Houthi-held capital Sanaa early on March 16, 2025. (AFP)
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Experts to Asharq Al-Awsat: Trump Confronts Houthis with New Reality, Strikes Not Enough to Defeat them 

A plume of smoke billows during a US strike on Yemen's Houthi-held capital Sanaa early on March 16, 2025. (AFP)
A plume of smoke billows during a US strike on Yemen's Houthi-held capital Sanaa early on March 16, 2025. (AFP)

Experts said US President Donald Trump has confronted the Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen with a new reality in wake of the airstrikes Washington has launched against them over the weekend.

Trump launched the strikes on Saturday to deter the Houthis from attacking military and commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

The Houthi-run Health Ministry said the overnight US strikes killed at least 53 people, including five women and two children, and wounded almost 100 in the capital of Sanaa and other provinces, including the northern province of Saada, the Houthi stronghold.

The White House announced on Sunday the killing of major Houthi leaderships in the attacks. The Houthis have yet to comment.

The Houthis have repeatedly targeted international shipping in the Red Sea, sinking two vessels, in what they call acts of solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza, where Israel has been at war with Hamas, another Iranian ally.

The attacks stopped when a Israel-Hamas ceasefire took hold in January — a day before Trump took office — but last week the Houthis said they would renew attacks against Israeli vessels after Israel cut off the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza this month.

There have been no Houthi attacks reported since then.

The Houthis on Sunday claimed to have targeted the USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group with missiles and a drone.

Washington and the Houthis have vowed escalation.

In the first official remarks by the government since the US strikes, deputy Foreign Minister Mustafa Numan said the militias believed their own delusions that they could confront the entire world.

“Instead, they have brought catastrophe to our country and innocent people,” he lamented to Asharq Al-Awsat, adding that the Houthis cannot wage this “reckless” war.

He recalled the concessions his government had made to end the war and move forward towards peace. The Houthis, however, dismissed all of these efforts, “stalled and rejected Saudi attempts to end the war.”

“The Houthis have crossed all red lines and brazenly defied the international community by promoting attractive slogans that are in effect useless,” Numan said.

Senior Fellow at the Washington Center for Yemeni Studies Sadeq Al-Wesabi criticized the Biden administration for lacking the will to understand the nature of the Houthis and how they operate.

“Trump has now come along to address the Houthis the only way they know well: force,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

President of surprises

Trump took the world by surprise when the announced the launch of the attacks on Saturday.

Trump, in a post on social media, promised to “use overwhelming lethal force” and ordered Iran to “immediately” cut its support.

“Your time is up, and your attacks must stop, starting today. If they don’t, hell will rain down upon you like nothing you have ever seen before,” he said in a statement on Truth Social, his social media site.

“I have ordered the US military today to launch a decisive and powerful military operation against the Houthi terrorists in Yemen,” he said, adding that Washington “will use overwhelming lethal force until we have achieved our objective”.

Co-founder of the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies Maged al-Madhaji said the strikes will push the Houthis towards two options, either seek calm and make a weak gesture after the attacks, or resort to major escalation in the Red Sea.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said the US strikes marked a major shift in position towards Yemen. He noted that the strikes were preceded by Washington re-designating the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, in a sign that it wanted to inflict damage on the militias, not just contain them.

Motives and messages

The balances of power in the region have been upended since Hamas launched its deadly attack against Israel on October 7, 2023. Iran’s proxies in the region, namely Hezbollah and Hamas, have been severely weakened by Israel and Iran itself was targeted twice by Israeli attacks.

Tehran is being confronted with Trump who is again applying his “maximum pressure campaign.” It is now in an unprecedented and weaker position should it return to negotiations over its nuclear program.

President of Girton College at the University of Cambridge Dr. Elisabeth Kendall said the US strikes are driven by three factors: protecting international shipping, preempting any Houthi attack and intensifying the pressure on Iran.

The Biden administration had frequently said that it wanted to target Houthi capabilities, not its members. But Trump is making it clear that he is targeting both, in a direct message to Iran.

Kendall told Asharq Al-Awsat that the strikes may be a precursor to a direct attack on Iran.

With Hamas and Hezbollah weakened and the ouster of Iran-ally Bashar al-Assad from Syria, the Houthis are Tehran’s only remaining powerful group.

A weakening of the Houthis’ military capabilities will limit Iran’s retaliation options should the US and Israel carry out direct strikes against it to prevent it from pursuing its nuclear ambitions, Kendall explained.

Al-Madhaji noted that the Houthis have limited options in which to respond. They can no longer rely on Hezbollah for backup. The Houthis are effectively the last remaining Iranian proxy that can spark any escalation in the region.

Former Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Mark Kimmitt predicted that the Houthis will retaliate to the strikes by targeting more ships in the Red Sea.

The conflict in Yemen will not end until the Houthis realize that their war has not achieved its goals and that they have run out of ammunition, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Houthi narrative

It has taken the US and western powers ten years to realize that the Houthis do not want peace, said a Yemeni source who chose to remain anonymous.

In 2018, Asharq Al-Awsat reported on how the Saudi-led Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen had waged an unprecedented battle in the southern Red Sea to protect global shipping from the Houthis.

The militias responded by sending messages to the world that they do not harbor hostile intentions, all the while the Coalition was neutralizing booby-trapped Houthi vessels and escorting vessels in the vital waterway.

The coalition had repeatedly warned that the Houthis must not be allowed to acquire sophisticated weapons from Iran. The world ignored the warnings and is now grappling with the Houthi threat to international marine navigation.

The West had long believed the Houthis were a local Yemeni problem and that their influence will remain confined to the country. It believed that the militias were not closely tied to Iran and that they actually wanted to take part in resolving the Yemeni conflict through political means.

This was the narrative that the Houthis and Iran and its “Resistance Axis” sought to promote to the world, said a senior Yemeni official on condition of anonymity. This narrative was dashed as the Houthis escalated their attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and threatened international trade and western interests.

Will strikes succeed?

The question remains: Will the US strikes have any impact on the Houthis who have withstood western strikes before?

In a post on the X platform, Hannah Porter, a senior research officer at ARK Group, said: “I don't know how many times this needs to be repeated, but if airstrikes were enough to stop the Houthis, the group would have been defeated many, many times over the past decade.”

She told Asharq Al-Awsat that there was a very real chance that the Houthis – who thrive in times of war – may not be defeated by military force.

The Trump administration is hoping that its attacks and terrorist designation will lead to the defeat of the Houthis, but the militias have demonstrated over the years their ability to withstand a lot of pressure, she added.

She expected that the Houthis will almost certainly respond to the strikes with escalation, either by attacking ships or American interests or the interests of its allies.

Al-Wesabi stressed that the current US strikes are more intense and accurate than the limited ones launched by the Biden administration.

Their success, however, hinges on whether they take out the top Houthi leaders which would be a blow to the militants’ morale and pave the way for the legitimate government forces, which are on alert, to act.

Failure to take out these leaders will only prolong the conflict, he warned.

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They Fled Syria Years Ago. Now, they Spend their First Ramadan Back amid Nostalgia, Relief and Loss

Displaced Syrian women prepare food at a makeshift camp in Idlib on May 23, 2019. (AFP)
Displaced Syrian women prepare food at a makeshift camp in Idlib on May 23, 2019. (AFP)
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They Fled Syria Years Ago. Now, they Spend their First Ramadan Back amid Nostalgia, Relief and Loss

Displaced Syrian women prepare food at a makeshift camp in Idlib on May 23, 2019. (AFP)
Displaced Syrian women prepare food at a makeshift camp in Idlib on May 23, 2019. (AFP)

When Mariam Aabour learned of the ouster of Syrian leader Bashar Assad, she shed tears of joy. But as the time came to return to her homeland from Lebanon – where she fled years earlier – Aabour felt torn.
She was happy about the homecoming, but sad to leave behind a son and a stepson who remained in Lebanon to work and pay off family debts. Months before her return, Aabour’s father died in Syria without her seeing him. Her Syrian home has been destroyed and there’s no money to rebuild, she said.
Thus it’s been bittersweet experiencing her first Ramadan – the Muslim holy month – since her return, The Associated Press said.
“We’ve all lost dear ones,” she said. “Even after our return, we still cry over the tragedies that we’ve lived through.”
As they spend their first Ramadan in years in their homeland, many Syrians who’ve recently trickled back in from abroad have been celebrating the end of the Assad family’s rule in December after a fast-paced opposition offensive. They are relishing some new freedoms and savoring some old traces of the lives they once knew.
They enjoy family reunions but many also face challenges as they adjust to a country ravaged by a prolonged civil war and now grappling with a complex transition. As they do, they grieve personal and communal losses: Killed and missing loved ones, their absence amplified during Ramadan. Destroyed or damaged homes. And family gatherings shattered by the exodus of millions.
A time for daily fasting and heightened worship, Ramadan also often sees joyous get-togethers with relatives over food and juices.
Aabour – one of the more than 370,000 Syrians the United Nations' refugee agency, UNHCR, says have returned to the country since Assad’s ouster – delights in hearing the call to prayer from mosques signaling the end of the daily fast. In her Lebanon neighborhood, she said, there were no nearby mosques and she relied on phones to know when to break the fast.
The hardest part, she added, is sitting for the fast-breaking meal known as “iftar” without some loved ones, including her father and a son, who she said was killed before the family fled Syria.
She bitterly recalled how her child, who she said was about 10 when killed, liked a rice and peas dish for iftar and would energetically help her, carrying dishes from the kitchen.
“I used to tell him, ‘You’re too young,’ but he would say, ‘No, I want to help you,’” she said, sitting on the floor in her in-laws’ house which her family now shares with relatives.
Faraj al-Mashash, her husband, said he’s not currently working, accumulating more debt and caring for an ill father.
The family borrowed money to fix his father’s home in Daraya. It was damaged and looted, but still standing.
Many Daraya homes aren’t.
Part of Rural Damascus and known for its grapes and its furniture workshops, Daraya was one of the centers of the uprising against Assad. The conflict devolved into armed insurgency and civil war after Assad crushed what started as largely peaceful protests; this Ramadan, Syrians marked the 14th anniversary of the civil war’s start.
Daraya suffered killings and saw massive damage during fighting. It endured years of government besiegement and aerial campaigns before a deal was struck between the government and opposition factions in 2016 that resulted in the evacuation of fighters and civilians and control ceded to the government.
Today, in parts of Daraya, children and others walk past walls with gaping holes in crumbling buildings. In some areas, a clothesline or bright-colored water tank provides glimpses of lives unfolding among ruins or charred walls.
Despite it all, al-Mashash said, it’s home.
“Isn’t Daraya destroyed? But I feel like I am in heaven.”
Still, “there’s sadness,” he added. “A place is only beautiful with its people in it. Buildings can be rebuilt, but when a person is gone, they don’t come back.”
In Lebanon, al-Mashash struggled financially and was homesick for Daraya, for the familiar faces that used to greet him on its streets. Shortly after Assad’s ouster, he returned.
This Ramadan, he’s re-lived some traditions, inviting people for iftar and getting invited, and praying at a mosque where he has cherished memories.
Some of those who had left Daraya, and now returned to Syria, say their homes have been obliterated or are in no condition for them to stay there. Some of them are living elsewhere in an apartment complex that had previously housed Assad-era military officers and is now sheltering some families, mostly ones who've returned from internal displacement.
The majority of those who've returned to Syria since Assad's removal came from countries in the region, including Lebanon, Jordan and Türkiye, said Celine Schmitt, UNHCR’s spokesperson in Syria.
A main security fear for returnees is unexploded mines, Schmitt said, adding UNHCR provides “mine awareness sessions” in its community centers. It also offers legal awareness for those needing IDs, birth certificates or property documents and has provided free transportation for some who came from Jordan and Türkiye, she said.
The needs of returnees, so far a fraction of those who’ve left, are varied and big – from work and basic services to house repairs or construction. Many, Schmitt said, hope for financial help to start a small business or rebuild, adding that more funding is needed.
“We’re calling on all of our donors,” she said. “There’s an opportunity now to solve one of the biggest displacement crises in the world, because people want to go back.”
Many of those who haven't returned cite economic challenges and “the huge challenges they see in Syria” as some of the reasons, she said.
In January, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said living conditions in the country must improve for the return of Syrians to be sustainable.
Umaya Moussa, also from Daraya, said she fled Syria to Lebanon in 2013, returning recently as a mother of four, two of whom had never seen Syria before.
Moussa, 38, recalls, at one point, fleeing an area while pregnant and terrified, carrying her daughter and clutching her husband’s hand. The horrors have haunted her.
“I’d remember so many events that would leave me unable to sleep,” she said. “Whenever I closed my eyes, I would scream and cry and have nightmares.”
In Lebanon, she lived for a while in a camp, where she shared the kitchen and bathroom with others. “We were humiliated ..., but it was still better than the fear we’ve lived through.”
She’d yearned for the usual Ramadan family gatherings.
For the first iftar this year, she broke her fast with her family, including brothers who, she said, as fighters against the Assad government, had previously moved to then opposition-controlled Idlib province.
Missing from the Ramadan meal was her father who died while Moussa was away.
Like Moussa, Saeed Kamel is intimately familiar with the pain of a joy incomplete. This Ramadan, he visited the grave of his mother who had died when he was in Lebanon.
“I told her that we’ve returned but we didn’t find her,” he said, wiping away tears.
And it wasn’t just her. Kamel had been hopeful that with Assad gone, they would find a missing brother in his prisons; they didn’t.
Kamel had vowed never to return to a Syria ruled by Assad, saying he felt like a stranger in his country. His home, he said, was damaged and looted.
But despite any difficulties, he held out hope. At least, he said, “the next generation will live with dignity, God willing.”
Kamel fondly recalled how – before their worlds changed – his family would exchange visits with others for most of Ramadan and neighbors would send each other iftar dishes.
“Ramadan is not nice without the family gatherings,” he said. “Now, one can barely manage.”
He can’t feel the same Ramadan spirit as before.
“The good thing,” he said, “is that Ramadan came while we’re liberated.”