The Science behind the Powerful Earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand

People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
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The Science behind the Powerful Earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand

People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)

A powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.7 centered in the Sagaing region near the Myanmar city of Mandalay caused extensive damage in that country and also shook neighboring Thailand on Friday.

HOW VULNERABLE IS MYANMAR TO EARTHQUAKES?

Myanmar lies on the boundary between two tectonic plates and is one of the world's most seismically active countries, although large and destructive earthquakes have been relatively rare in the Sagaing region.

"The plate boundary between the India Plate and Eurasia Plate runs approximately north-south, cutting through the middle of the country," said Joanna Faure Walker, a professor and earthquake expert at University College London.

She said the plates move past each other horizontally at different speeds. While this causes "strike slip" quakes that are normally less powerful than those seen in "subduction zones" like Sumatra, where one plate slides under another, they can still reach magnitudes of 7 to 8.

WHY WAS FRIDAY'S QUAKE SO DAMAGING?

Sagaing has been hit by several quakes in recent years, with a 6.8 magnitude event causing at least 26 deaths and dozens of injuries in late 2012.

But Friday's event was "probably the biggest" to hit Myanmar's mainland in three quarters of a century, said Bill McGuire, another earthquake expert at UCL.

Roger Musson, honorary research fellow at the British Geological Survey, told Reuters that the shallow depth of the quake meant the damage would be more severe. The quake's epicenter was at a depth of just 10 km (6.2 miles), according to the United States Geological Survey.

"This is very damaging because it has occurred at a shallow depth, so the shockwaves are not dissipated as they go from the focus of the earthquake up to the surface. The buildings received the full force of the shaking."

"It's important not to be focused on epicenters because the seismic waves don't radiate out from the epicenter - they radiate out from the whole line of the fault," he added.

HOW PREPARED WAS MYANMAR?

The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program said on Friday that fatalities could be between 10,000 and 100,000 people, and the economic impact could be as high as 70% of Myanmar's GDP.

Musson said such forecasts are based on data from past earthquakes and on Myanmar's size, location and overall quake readiness.

The relative rarity of large seismic events in the Sagaing region - which is close to heavily populated Mandalay - means that infrastructure had not been built to withstand them. That means the damage could end up being far worse.

Musson said that the last major quake to hit the region was in 1956, and homes are unlikely to have been built to withstand seismic forces as powerful as those that hit on Friday.

"Most of the seismicity in Myanmar is further to the west whereas this is running down the center of the country," he said.



West Bank Palestinians Losing Hope 100 Days into Israeli Assault

Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP
Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP
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West Bank Palestinians Losing Hope 100 Days into Israeli Assault

Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP
Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP

On a torn-up road near the refugee camp where she once lived, Saja Bawaqneh said she struggled to find hope 100 days after an Israeli offensive in the occupied West Bank forced her to flee.

Tens of thousands of Palestinians have been displaced in the north of the territory since Israel began a major "anti-terrorist operation" dubbed "Iron Wall" on January 21.

Bawaqneh said life was tough and uncertain since she was forced to leave Jenin refugee camp -- one of three targeted by the offensive along with Tulkarem and Nur Shams.

"We try to hold on to hope, but unfortunately, reality offers none," she told AFP.

"Nothing is clear in Jenin camp even after 100 days -- we still don't know whether we will return to our homes, or whether those homes have been damaged or destroyed."

Bawaqneh said residents were banned from entering the camp and that "no one knows... what happened inside".

Israel's military in late February deployed tanks in Jenin for the first time in the West Bank since the end of the second intifada.

In early March, it said it had expanded its offensive to more areas of the city.

The Jenin camp is a known bastion of Palestinian militancy where Israeli forces have always operated.

AFP footage this week showed power lines dangling above streets blocked with barriers made of churned up earth. Wastewater pooled in the road outside Jenin Governmental Hospital.

- 'Precarious' situation -

Farha Abu al-Hija, a member of the Popular Committee for Services in Jenin camp, said families living in the vicinity of the camp were being removed by Israeli forces "on a daily basis".

"A hundred days have passed like a hundred years for the displaced people of Jenin camp," she said.

"Their situation is dire, the conditions are harsh, and they are enduring pain unlike anything they have ever known."

Medical charity Doctors Without Borders in March denounced the "extremely precarious" situation of Palestinians displaced by the military assault, saying they were going "without proper shelter, essential services, and access to healthcare".

It said the scale of forced displacement and destruction of camps "has not been seen in decades" in the West Bank.

The United Nations says about 40,000 residents have been displaced since January 21.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said the offensive would last several months and ordered troops to stop residents from returning.

Israeli forces put up barriers at several entrances of the Jenin camp in late April, AFP footage showed.

The Israeli offensive began two days after a truce came into effect in the Gaza Strip between the Israeli military and Gaza's Hamas.

Two months later that truce collapsed and Israel resumed its offensive in Gaza, a Palestinian territory separate from the West Bank.

Since the Gaza war began in October 2023, violence has soared in the West Bank.

Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 925 Palestinians, including militants, in the territory since then, according to the Ramallah-based health ministry.

Palestinian attacks and clashes during military raids have killed at least 33 Israelis, including soldiers, over the same period, according to official figures.