The Science behind the Powerful Earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand

People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
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The Science behind the Powerful Earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand

People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)

A powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.7 centered in the Sagaing region near the Myanmar city of Mandalay caused extensive damage in that country and also shook neighboring Thailand on Friday.

HOW VULNERABLE IS MYANMAR TO EARTHQUAKES?

Myanmar lies on the boundary between two tectonic plates and is one of the world's most seismically active countries, although large and destructive earthquakes have been relatively rare in the Sagaing region.

"The plate boundary between the India Plate and Eurasia Plate runs approximately north-south, cutting through the middle of the country," said Joanna Faure Walker, a professor and earthquake expert at University College London.

She said the plates move past each other horizontally at different speeds. While this causes "strike slip" quakes that are normally less powerful than those seen in "subduction zones" like Sumatra, where one plate slides under another, they can still reach magnitudes of 7 to 8.

WHY WAS FRIDAY'S QUAKE SO DAMAGING?

Sagaing has been hit by several quakes in recent years, with a 6.8 magnitude event causing at least 26 deaths and dozens of injuries in late 2012.

But Friday's event was "probably the biggest" to hit Myanmar's mainland in three quarters of a century, said Bill McGuire, another earthquake expert at UCL.

Roger Musson, honorary research fellow at the British Geological Survey, told Reuters that the shallow depth of the quake meant the damage would be more severe. The quake's epicenter was at a depth of just 10 km (6.2 miles), according to the United States Geological Survey.

"This is very damaging because it has occurred at a shallow depth, so the shockwaves are not dissipated as they go from the focus of the earthquake up to the surface. The buildings received the full force of the shaking."

"It's important not to be focused on epicenters because the seismic waves don't radiate out from the epicenter - they radiate out from the whole line of the fault," he added.

HOW PREPARED WAS MYANMAR?

The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program said on Friday that fatalities could be between 10,000 and 100,000 people, and the economic impact could be as high as 70% of Myanmar's GDP.

Musson said such forecasts are based on data from past earthquakes and on Myanmar's size, location and overall quake readiness.

The relative rarity of large seismic events in the Sagaing region - which is close to heavily populated Mandalay - means that infrastructure had not been built to withstand them. That means the damage could end up being far worse.

Musson said that the last major quake to hit the region was in 1956, and homes are unlikely to have been built to withstand seismic forces as powerful as those that hit on Friday.

"Most of the seismicity in Myanmar is further to the west whereas this is running down the center of the country," he said.



Le Pen Verdict Triggers Uproar from Far-Right in France and Beyond, amid Fist Pumps in Paris

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, member of parliament of the Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party, walks on the day of the verdict of her trial at the courthouse in Paris, France, March 31, 2025. (Reuters)
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, member of parliament of the Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party, walks on the day of the verdict of her trial at the courthouse in Paris, France, March 31, 2025. (Reuters)
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Le Pen Verdict Triggers Uproar from Far-Right in France and Beyond, amid Fist Pumps in Paris

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, member of parliament of the Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party, walks on the day of the verdict of her trial at the courthouse in Paris, France, March 31, 2025. (Reuters)
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, member of parliament of the Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party, walks on the day of the verdict of her trial at the courthouse in Paris, France, March 31, 2025. (Reuters)

The thunderclap court ruling barring far-right politician Marine Le Pen from office for the immediate future reverberated across the political spectrum of France and Europe on Monday.

Her supporters branded the verdict an assault on democracy while detractors reacted with fist-pumping celebration, though even some of her critics wondered whether the court decision went too far.

Long seen as a top contender for France's 2027 presidential election and a potential leader-in-waiting of the Eurozone's second economy, Le Pen was convicted of embezzling European Union funds and barred from holding public office for five years.

The ruling drew swift and scathing responses from Le Pen's political kin across Europe, many of whom viewed the court's decision as an existential threat to their own movements.

"I am shocked by the incredibly tough verdict against Marine Le Pen. I support and believe in her 100% and I trust she will win the appeal and become President of France," said Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders.

In Italy, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini warned, "The ruling against Marine Le Pen is a declaration of war by Brussels."

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán declared, "I am Marine."

Tom Van Grieken of Belgium's Vlaams Belang called the decision "an attack on democracy," and added: "Marine Le Pen can continue to count on our support."

Spain's Vox party leader Santiago Abascal insisted, "They will not succeed in silencing the voice of the French people."

From Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, "More and more European capitals are going down the path of trampling over democratic norms."

In France, where Le Pen had fought for decades to mainstream her far-right politics, the reaction within her camp was incendiary.

Jordan Bardella, her handpicked successor as president of the National Rally, used the language of political martyrdom to describe the moment.

"Today it is not only Marine Le Pen who was unjustly condemned: it is French democracy that was killed," Bardella said.

Éric Zemmour, another prominent far-right voice and former presidential candidate, said "It is not for judges to decide who the people must vote for."

In Paris's Republic Plaza, where public demonstrations often unfold, Le Pen detractors punched the air in celebration.

"We were here in this square to celebrate the death of her father," said Jean Dupont, 45, a schoolteacher. "And this is now the death of Le Pen's presidential ambitions."

Sophie Martin, 34, a graphic designer, was among those in a celebratory mood. "I had to check the date-I thought it was April Fool's Day," she said. "But it's not. She's finally been knocked down. We've lived with her poison in our politics for too long."

Still, not everyone welcomed the ruling. Lucien Bernard, 64, a retired civil servant, expressed concern. "It's a sad day for democracy," he said. "Whether you love or hate her, the people should not be denied a chance to express their vote in a country that is supposedly a leading Western democracy."

Even from the left, where Le Pen has long been a reviled figure, the tone was complex. The far-left France Unbowed party acknowledged the seriousness of the charges but warned against judicial overreach.

"We take note of this decision by the courts," the party said, "even though we reject on principle that legal recourse should be impossible for any defendant."

They emphasized that their opposition to Le Pen's party would continue on political - not judicial - grounds: "We will defeat them again tomorrow at the ballot box, no matter who their candidate is."