The Science behind the Powerful Earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand

People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
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The Science behind the Powerful Earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand

People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)

A powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.7 centered in the Sagaing region near the Myanmar city of Mandalay caused extensive damage in that country and also shook neighboring Thailand on Friday.

HOW VULNERABLE IS MYANMAR TO EARTHQUAKES?

Myanmar lies on the boundary between two tectonic plates and is one of the world's most seismically active countries, although large and destructive earthquakes have been relatively rare in the Sagaing region.

"The plate boundary between the India Plate and Eurasia Plate runs approximately north-south, cutting through the middle of the country," said Joanna Faure Walker, a professor and earthquake expert at University College London.

She said the plates move past each other horizontally at different speeds. While this causes "strike slip" quakes that are normally less powerful than those seen in "subduction zones" like Sumatra, where one plate slides under another, they can still reach magnitudes of 7 to 8.

WHY WAS FRIDAY'S QUAKE SO DAMAGING?

Sagaing has been hit by several quakes in recent years, with a 6.8 magnitude event causing at least 26 deaths and dozens of injuries in late 2012.

But Friday's event was "probably the biggest" to hit Myanmar's mainland in three quarters of a century, said Bill McGuire, another earthquake expert at UCL.

Roger Musson, honorary research fellow at the British Geological Survey, told Reuters that the shallow depth of the quake meant the damage would be more severe. The quake's epicenter was at a depth of just 10 km (6.2 miles), according to the United States Geological Survey.

"This is very damaging because it has occurred at a shallow depth, so the shockwaves are not dissipated as they go from the focus of the earthquake up to the surface. The buildings received the full force of the shaking."

"It's important not to be focused on epicenters because the seismic waves don't radiate out from the epicenter - they radiate out from the whole line of the fault," he added.

HOW PREPARED WAS MYANMAR?

The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program said on Friday that fatalities could be between 10,000 and 100,000 people, and the economic impact could be as high as 70% of Myanmar's GDP.

Musson said such forecasts are based on data from past earthquakes and on Myanmar's size, location and overall quake readiness.

The relative rarity of large seismic events in the Sagaing region - which is close to heavily populated Mandalay - means that infrastructure had not been built to withstand them. That means the damage could end up being far worse.

Musson said that the last major quake to hit the region was in 1956, and homes are unlikely to have been built to withstand seismic forces as powerful as those that hit on Friday.

"Most of the seismicity in Myanmar is further to the west whereas this is running down the center of the country," he said.



European Leaders See Trump’s Troop Drawdown from Germany as New Proof They Must Go it Alone

An AH-64 Apache attack helicopter stands in front of a Galaxy C-5 transport plane at the US Air Base in Ramstein, western Germany, on February 22, 2017. (dpa/AFP)
An AH-64 Apache attack helicopter stands in front of a Galaxy C-5 transport plane at the US Air Base in Ramstein, western Germany, on February 22, 2017. (dpa/AFP)
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European Leaders See Trump’s Troop Drawdown from Germany as New Proof They Must Go it Alone

An AH-64 Apache attack helicopter stands in front of a Galaxy C-5 transport plane at the US Air Base in Ramstein, western Germany, on February 22, 2017. (dpa/AFP)
An AH-64 Apache attack helicopter stands in front of a Galaxy C-5 transport plane at the US Air Base in Ramstein, western Germany, on February 22, 2017. (dpa/AFP)

European leaders on Monday said that US President Donald Trump’s snap decision to pull thousands of US troops out of Germany came as a surprise but is a fresh sign that Europe must take care of its own security.

The Pentagon announced last week that it would pull some 5,000 troops out of Germany, but Trump told reporters on Saturday that “we’re going to cut way down. And we’re cutting a lot further than 5,000.”

He offered no reason for the move, which blindsided NATO, but his decision came amid an escalating dispute with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the US-Israeli war on Iran, and Trump’s anger that European allies have been reluctant to get involved in the conflict in the Middle East.

Asked about the decision to pull out 5,000 troops from Germany, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said: “I wouldn’t exaggerate that because I think we are expecting that Europe is taking more charge of its own security.

“I do not see those figures as dramatic, but I think they should be handled in a harmonious way inside the framework of NATO,” he told reporters in Yerevan, Armenia, where European leaders are holding a summit.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said “there has been a talk about withdrawal of US troops for a long time from Europe. But of course, the timing of this announcement comes as a surprise.”

“I think it shows that we have to really strengthen the European pillar in NATO,” she said.

Asked whether she believes that Trump is trying to punish Merz, who said that the US has been humiliated by Iran in talks to end the war, Kallas said: “I don’t see into the head of President Trump, so he has to explain it himself.”

Over the weekend, NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said that officials at the 32-nation military alliance “are working with the US to understand the details of their decision on force posture in Germany.”

European allies and Canada have known since just after he came to office again last year that Trump would pull troops out of Europe — indeed some left Romania in October — but US officials had pledged to coordinate any moves with their NATO allies to avoid creating a security vacuum.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte played down the move, saying that “there has been at this point disappointment on the US side” about European support for the war on Iran.

Notably France, Spain and the UK have declined to give US forces free rein to use bases on their territory to attack Iran. Spain has denied them the use of its airspace and bases there for the war.

But Rutte, who has championed Trump’s leadership at NATO despite the US president's criticism of the majority of the allies, said: “I would say the Europeans have heard a message. They are now making sure that all the bilateral basing agreements are being implemented.”

Rutte added that European nations “have decided to pre-position assets, key assets, close to the theater for the next phase.”

He provided no details, but the Europeans have insisted they would not help police the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy trade route, until the war is over.

French President Emmanuel Macron said “if the United States is ready to reopen Hormuz, that’s great. That’s what we’ve been asking for since the beginning.” But he underlined that the Europeans are not ready to get involved in any operation “that does not seem clear to us.”

In another sign of friction with Merz, Trump has accused the EU of not complying with its US trade deal and announced plans to increase tariffs next week on cars and trucks produced in the bloc to 25%, a move that would be particularly damaging to Germany, a major automobile manufacturer.

Without mentioning Trump or the United States, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen listed recent trade deals that the bloc has sealed with Australia and India, and is now working on with Mexico.

“With like-minded friends, you have stable, reliable supply chains and Europe has the biggest network of free trade agreements,” von der Leyen, who is from Germany, told reporters.


What to Know about Hantavirus, the Illness Suspected in a Cruise Ship Outbreak

This aerial picture shows a general view of the cruise ship MV Hondius stationary off the port of Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, on May 3, 2025. (AFP)
This aerial picture shows a general view of the cruise ship MV Hondius stationary off the port of Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, on May 3, 2025. (AFP)
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What to Know about Hantavirus, the Illness Suspected in a Cruise Ship Outbreak

This aerial picture shows a general view of the cruise ship MV Hondius stationary off the port of Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, on May 3, 2025. (AFP)
This aerial picture shows a general view of the cruise ship MV Hondius stationary off the port of Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, on May 3, 2025. (AFP)

A hantavirus is suspected of causing an outbreak aboard a cruise ship that has killed three people and sickened others.

Studies indicate hantaviruses have been around for centuries, with outbreaks documented in Asia and Europe. In the Eastern Hemisphere, it has been linked with hemorrhagic fever and kidney failure. It wasn’t until the early 1990s that a previously unknown group of hantaviruses emerged in the southwestern United States as the cause of an acute respiratory disease now known hantavirus pulmonary syndrome.

The disease gained attention last year after late actor Gene Hackman ’s wife, Betsy Arakawa, died from a hantavirus infection in New Mexico.

The World Health Organization said in a statement Sunday that detailed investigations of the cruise ship outbreak are ongoing, including further laboratory testing and epidemiological investigations. Sequencing of the virus also is ongoing.

The virus is spread by rodents and more rarely, people

Hantavirus is mainly spread by contact with rodents or their urine, saliva or droppings, particularly when the material is disturbed and becomes airborne, posing risk of inhalation. People are typically exposed to hantavirus around their homes, cabins or sheds, especially when cleaning out enclosed spaces with little ventilation or exploring areas where there are mouse droppings.

The WHO says that while rare, hantaviruses may spread between people.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began tracking the virus after a 1993 outbreak in the Four Corners region — the area where Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah meet.

It was an astute physician with the Indian Health Service who first noticed a pattern of deaths among young patients, said Michelle Harkins, a pulmonologist with the University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center who for years has been studying the disease and helping patients.

Most US cases are in Western states. New Mexico and Arizona are hotspots, Harkins said, likely because the odds are greater for mouse-human encounters in rural areas.

The illness starts with flu-like symptoms

An infection can rapidly progress and become life-threatening. Experts say it can start with symptoms that include a fever, chills, muscle aches and maybe a headache.

“Early in the illness, you really may not be able to tell the difference between hantavirus and having the flu,” said Dr. Sonja Bartolome of UT Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas.

Symptoms of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome usually show between one to eight weeks after contact with an infected rodent. As the infection progresses, patients might experience tightness in the chest, as the lungs fill with fluid.

The other syndrome caused by hantavirus — hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome — usually develops within a week or two after exposure.

Death rates vary by which hantavirus causes the illness. Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome is fatal in about 35% of people infected, while the death rate for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome varies from 1% to 15% of patients, according to the CDC.

A lot of unknowns

There is no specific treatment or cure, but early medical attention can increase the chance of survival.

Despite years of research, Harkins said many questions have yet to be answered, including why it can be mild for some people and very severe for others and how antibodies are developed.

She and other researchers have been following patients over long periods of time in hopes of finding a treatment.

“A lot of mysteries,” she said, noting that what researchers do know is that rodent exposure is a key.

The best way to avoid the germ is to minimize contact with rodents and their droppings. Use protective gloves and a bleach solution for cleaning up rodent droppings. Public health experts caution against sweeping or vacuuming, which can cause the virus to get into the air.


Why Israel Fears Military Rapprochement Between Egypt and Türkiye

Egyptian Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation summit in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital in December 2024. (Egyptian Presidency)
Egyptian Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation summit in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital in December 2024. (Egyptian Presidency)
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Why Israel Fears Military Rapprochement Between Egypt and Türkiye

Egyptian Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation summit in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital in December 2024. (Egyptian Presidency)
Egyptian Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation summit in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital in December 2024. (Egyptian Presidency)

The growing rapprochement between Egypt and Türkiye is raising concern in Israel, particularly as military cooperation expands through joint training and exercises between two of the region’s largest and most strategically significant armed forces.

Those concerns resurfaced after international military drills involving Egyptian and Turkish forces concluded in the Libyan city of Sirte.

Experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat said the unease stems from several factors, including the two countries’ military weight and their growing alignment on regional issues and defense manufacturing.

They expect the rapprochement could evolve into a regional alliance with expanding influence, while ruling out any imminent military confrontation.

Israeli concerns

The Israeli newspaper Maariv published an article by retired general Yitzhak Brik warning that Tel Aviv could face a “difficult war” against a potential Egyptian-Turkish alliance as both countries strengthen their military capabilities.

Brik warned that strategic cooperation between Cairo and Ankara could extend to joint military production and defense integration.

Any military rapprochement between Egypt and Türkiye, he said, could reshape deterrence dynamics in the region and pose new security challenges for Israel, requiring a comprehensive reassessment of its military doctrine and defense strategies.

Israeli channel i24NEWS reported on April 18 that talks between Egypt and Türkiye were accelerating, noting that in-depth discussions had been referred to Turkish parliamentary committees on security, defense, and intelligence.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Cairo in February, where several agreements were signed, including in the defense sector. During a joint press conference, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said the two countries share converging views on regional and international issues, particularly Gaza, Sudan, Libya and the Horn of Africa.

Israel has also expressed reservations about the possibility of Ankara participating in international stabilization forces in Gaza, after Türkiye became involved in mediation and guarantees for implementing a ceasefire agreement in October. Media reports have also pointed to the possibility of a future military confrontation between Israel and Türkiye following tensions linked to Iran.

‘Cold peace’

Egyptian military and strategic expert Samir Ragheb said Türkiye’s direct presence in the region, combined with its rapprochement with Egypt, reinforces what he described as a “cold peace” with Israel.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Cairo and Ankara command the region’s two largest armies and maintain strong ties with key regional powers, something Israel views with concern.

One of the most sensitive issues for Israel, he said, is cooperation in drone manufacturing.

Both Egypt and Türkiye have significant capabilities in this field, and joint production could meet their domestic needs while positioning them as strong competitors to Israeli drones in regional markets, particularly as negative perceptions of Israeli products grow due to ongoing conflicts, making Egyptian-Turkish alternatives more appealing.

Coordination between Egypt and Türkiye spans a broad geographic arc from Somalia to Syria, including Libya. This, Ragheb said, adds to Israeli concerns, particularly as Türkiye seeks to expand its footprint in Africa through Egypt, the continent’s main gateway.

Turkish affairs researcher Taha Ouda Oglu told Asharq Al-Awsat that cooperation between Egypt and Türkiye on Gaza, Libya and Africa is further raising Israeli concerns.

Rising military cooperation

Military cooperation between Egypt and Türkiye has accelerated in recent months. In late 2025, for the first time in 13 years, Egyptian forces took part in joint naval exercises on Turkish soil, involving Turkish frigates, attack boats, a submarine and F-16 fighter jets, alongside Egyptian naval units.

Türkiye’s Defense Ministry said on Thursday that the “Flintlock 2026” exercises, which were in Sirte from April 13 to 30, had concluded. The drills, which included Egyptian forces, aimed to enhance military cooperation and combat readiness through integrated land, air and naval scenarios.

In September, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in a televised interview that Ankara is seeking to strengthen cooperation with Egypt in defense industries and joint security, noting that regional threats are driving deeper discussions on security as ties develop.

Egypt and Türkiye also signed an agreement in late August to locally produce the “Turkha” drone in Egypt, a step aimed at localizing drone technology and boosting domestic defense industries. The aircraft features advanced surveillance and reconnaissance systems and vertical takeoff and landing capabilities.

Ragheb ruled out the possibility of Israel waging a military confrontation against either Egypt or Türkiye, saying Israeli military doctrine does not allow for fighting on multiple fronts simultaneously against major powers.

He added that the United States would be unlikely to support Israel in a war against countries the size of Egypt or Türkiye, noting both nations rely on deterrence through strength rather than rhetoric.

He said the rapprochement, while not directed against Israel, could evolve into a broader regional alliance that may include major countries, such as Pakistan.

Oglu said military cooperation between Egypt and Türkiye is likely to deepen further and expand across multiple arenas, increasing their influence in the region, without leading to a direct confrontation with Israel.