Angry Groups Emerge and Fade in Syria, Terror Cells or Shadows?

Nusra fighters train in Syria’s Idlib Province – August 16, 2024 (AFP)
Nusra fighters train in Syria’s Idlib Province – August 16, 2024 (AFP)
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Angry Groups Emerge and Fade in Syria, Terror Cells or Shadows?

Nusra fighters train in Syria’s Idlib Province – August 16, 2024 (AFP)
Nusra fighters train in Syria’s Idlib Province – August 16, 2024 (AFP)

When Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa met US President Donald Trump in Riyadh on May 14, the encounter marked a striking departure from Syria’s political norm, and one that sent ripples of surprise through both allies and adversaries.

While many Syrians expressed enthusiasm over the unexpected meeting, the reaction was far from unanimous.

For extremist circles, the image of al-Sharaa seated beside a US president, long portrayed in their rhetoric as the embodiment of a hostile international order, triggered deep unease and, in some cases, fury.

The backlash was swift and fragmented. Although not centrally coordinated, it was visible across encrypted Telegram channels - the platform of choice for many extremist groups - as well as in private gatherings and scattered posts on the social media platform X.

Reactions ranged from suspicion and ideological denunciation to outright accusations of apostasy. The criticism largely targeted al-Sharaa’s growing openness to the West, particularly Israel, and debated the legitimacy of such outreach under Islamic law.

Despite the noise, these objections appear to carry little political weight inside Syria’s emerging state institutions. Analysts and insiders say the dissent does not reflect the views of the security and military apparatus that has taken shape following the collapse of the former regime.

At the heart of this new order is a coalition of former factions, notably those once aligned with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which now forms the backbone of Syria’s restructured army and civil institutions. These groups have largely rallied around al-Sharaa, endorsing his foreign policy moves and viewing his leadership as best suited for steering the country through a fragile transition.

The new Syrian army, drawn from multiple factions that once formed the joint operations room which toppled the Assad government in Damascus, has since consolidated under state command.

Most of its components now back al-Sharaa, even as he pushes for diplomatic normalization, including tentative overtures to Israel - a shift they see as necessary for post-conflict stability.

While Syria’s new institutions rally around al-Sharaa’s push for reconciliation and international engagement, a defiant voice has emerged from outside the state structure - one that rejects his overtures and threatens to reignite instability.

The group calling itself Saraya Ansar al-Sunna has so far been the only actor to publicly oppose al-Sharaa’s trajectory. Shrouded in secrecy, the group is among the newest armed movements to surface following the collapse of the Assad regime.

Its presence remains confined to encrypted Telegram channels, where it has adopted a hardline tone steeped in religious denunciation and threats of violence. It has yet to establish a visible presence on the ground or disclose a clear organizational identity.

In a recent statement circulated online, the group vowed to escalate attacks across Syrian provinces and in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli - where it previously claimed activity.

The message marked a sharp warning from a faction that, despite its limited footprint, could stir trouble through lone-wolf operations, a method favored in such ideological circles.

Saraya Ansar al-Sunna first claimed responsibility for an attack in February in the village of Arzeh in Hama province, which killed more than ten civilians.

The group’s founding statement framed the assault as part of a campaign of “sectarian revenge” targeting Alawites and Shiites, whom it referred to using derogatory sectarian terms. The communiqué also described the group as “decentralized” and reliant on autonomous cells with no identifiable leadership or headquarters.

Although Syria’s Interior Ministry declined to provide details on the group, officials confirmed they are closely monitoring its activity – a sign that authorities consider the threat credible, despite the group's lack of formal structure.

Who are Saraya Ansar al-Sunna?

Sources in northern Syria told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group has claimed responsibility for a series of assassinations in rural Hama and Homs, targeting Alawite civilians.

The group framed the killings as “retribution” against alleged Assad loyalists, or “shabiha”, whom they accuse the state of failing to prosecute. The sources said growing frustration over the lack of transitional justice has fueled accusations that the state is delivering “selective justice,” a phrase increasingly used to mock what some see as a stalled reconciliation process.

Despite fiery rhetoric and threats, the shadowy group has yet to establish a tangible presence on the ground.

So far, its activities remain confined to anonymous, closed Telegram channels, where it disseminates sharply worded statements steeped in religious condemnation and anti-government sentiment.

According to sources familiar with extremist activity in central Syria, the group relies entirely on text-based messaging and has shown no visual evidence of leadership or organized operations.

Two names have emerged frequently in connection with the group: “Abu Aisha al-Shami” and “Abu al-Fath al-Shami” - likely pseudonyms. Both are believed to be former members of Hurras al-Din, an offshoot of al-Qaeda. Intelligence suggests they have since reemerged in small clandestine cells operating quietly in parts of rural Homs and Hama.

In one statement posted on a Telegram channel, Abu al-Fath al-Shami - introduced as the group's “religious authority” - launched a scathing attack on President Ahmad al-Sharaa, accusing him of apostasy and betrayal.

His message, couched in harsh ideological language, cast the new Syrian government not merely as a political adversary but as a theological enemy - a marked escalation in tone.

Still, the group has so far refrained from direct armed confrontation with the Syrian state. Instead, it appears to be focused on retaliatory attacks against what it calls the “social incubators” of the former regime - a reference to Alawite civilian communities historically aligned with Bashar al-Assad.

This approach, emphasizing ideological hostility over direct conflict, reflects a broader, long-standing rift within the extremist landscape in Syria.

It mirrors the old divide between al-Qaeda’s traditionalist wing and the more localized, pragmatic faction led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham under al-Sharaa. Though this internal split had faded from prominence, al-Sharaa’s high-profile meeting with Trump in Riyadh appears to have reignited it, sparking renewed debate among radical ideologues.

Prominent extremist figures have stepped up criticism of al-Sharaa, accusing him of betraying ideological principles in pursuit of political gains, particularly following his unprecedented outreach to the US and Israel.

Among the loudest voices was Khaled Abu Qatada al-Ansari, a former senior figure in Hurras al-Din, who denounced the Syrian state as “treasonous” and accused it of deviating from the “true path.”

His comments were echoed by Samer al-Ali, also known as Abu Ubaida, a former religious authority in Jabhat al-Nusra, who charged al-Sharaa with abandoning the core tenets of the original project for political pragmatism.

Outside Syria, criticism followed a similar pattern. Abu Abdullah al-Shami, a well-known ideologue based in Iraq, described al-Sharaa’s foreign policy pivot as a “fundamental betrayal of doctrine.”

Meanwhile, a stark split emerged among veteran thinkers: cleric Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi reaffirmed his staunch opposition to al-Sharaa, framing his overtures to Washington and Israel as a departure from religious “constants.”

In contrast, Abu Qatada struck a more nuanced tone, suggesting that such shifts might be necessary in the post-Assad era to safeguard the revolution’s gains.

The debate underscores a widening rift between two ideological camps - one branding al-Sharaa an apostate, the other viewing his actions as a pragmatic response to evolving realities and branding him as the “man of the moment.”

No Organized Opposition Within the State

Despite the heated rhetoric, former military commander Adham Abdulrahman told Asharq Al-Awsat that there is no significant extremist bloc within Syria’s government or its security institutions challenging al-Sharaa’s policies.

“This is the policy of a state, not just one man - even if al-Sharaa is the architect,” he said.

“While there is still public and religious discomfort around peace with Israel, it's no longer as emotionally charged as it once was. Over time, these sentiments may coalesce into various forms of opposition, but they won’t be exclusively religious – they could be nationalist or political as well.”

He added that even radical factions, especially foreign fighters who once resisted integration, are now gradually shifting their focus.

“Most of them are moving toward reintegration, prioritizing daily life and stability. They may not fully endorse the new government, but they’re adapting - I’ve seen this happen in multiple cases,” Abdulrahman said.

Extremist groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda are attempting to exploit discontent within Syria’s shifting political landscape, but analysts say al-Sharaa’s government – forged through years of conflict – is proving far from vulnerable.

“ISIS is actively seeking to regroup and recruit from disillusioned or marginalized segments, relying on its familiar slogans,” said former military commander Adham Abdulrahman.

“But this new government, born from an authentic organizational experience and equipped with deep security and military know-how, is not an easy target.”

Diverging Currents in HTS

According to Ahmad Sultan, a researcher specializing in Islamist movements, internal divisions are emerging within the HTS, the backbone of the new Syrian state.

“Some factions within HTS still cling to hardline ideology and remain visibly frustrated with al-Sharaa’s policy shifts,” Sultan told Asharq Al-Awsat. “They lack a coherent vision for governance beyond regime collapse and still regard any contact with perceived enemies as tantamount to apostasy.”

By contrast, other elements within HTS advocate a more pragmatic approach. “They view political openness as a tactical necessity for this phase,” Sultan said. “al-Sharaa’s administration is walking a fine line between these factions to preserve cohesion amid Syria’s complex reality.”

Sultan emphasized that the pro-al-Sharaa bloc remains dominant. “The opposition within HTS doesn’t represent the majority. The leading current supports Sharaa and wields greater power,” he said.

“The administration has made it clear that it won’t align with anti-engagement elements, though it may seek to pacify them to avoid destabilization - especially as al-Sharaa’s international legitimacy hinges on curbing extremism.”

Fears of Splits, Push for Consolidation

The researcher warned that any significant rift within HTS - the central pillar of the state - could destabilize the entire administration and potentially spark internal conflict.

“Al-Sharaa’s government is preparing to tackle critical files: the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast, the presence of foreign fighters, border control, and consolidating central authority,” Sultan explained. “To do that, it must neutralize ultra-hardline elements within.”

He added that al-Sharaa is relying on practical methods to prevent extremist drift inside his administration, including religious education and theological persuasion aimed at preserving unity.

“Some clerics close to al-Sharaa command real influence among hardline circles,” Sultan said. “If tensions escalate, these figures could play a key role in diffusing conflict through religious argumentation and appeals to collective responsibility.”

Al-Sharaa is prepared to take tough measures - including arrests and even eliminations - against hardline elements within the state who reject moderation and persist in incitement.

“Containment through religious dialogue is the preferred option,” said Sultan.

“But when that fails, the alternative may be surgical removal of factions that prove resistant to integration.”

Sultan warned that the government will not tolerate extremist mindsets if they shift toward agitation and destabilization. “If a radical current chooses confrontation, al-Sharaa will not hesitate to resort to decisive tools, including imprisonment or targeted action,” he said.

Strained Popular Base

Despite the state’s assertive posture, some observers caution that the strategy carries risks, particularly if it alienates the broader revolutionary base that once fueled Syria’s rebellion.

“The Syrian landscape remains fluid and unpredictable,” said Mohamed Ibrahim, also known as Abu Yahya al-Shami, a former military commander within an Islamist faction. “If the government wants long-term stability, it cannot afford to lose the core support of former revolutionaries.”

Al-Shami, who remains closely connected to Islamic movements, drew a clear line between constructive dissent and extremist rhetoric.

“Takfir- branding others as apostates - is the weapon of extremists and ISIS sympathizers. It’s unacceptable to many of us within the Islamist current,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He stressed that criticism of al-Sharaa’s government should be expressed through informed, balanced discourse.

“There is no such thing as ‘legitimate chaos.’ Sharia is the standard by which actions are judged. Disagreements must be addressed scientifically and socially, not through disorder.”

Al-Shami also warned that hardline rhetoric by extremist groups risks influencing disillusioned youth and fueling radicalization in Syria’s fragile post-war landscape.

“There is concern that some enthusiastic or overly zealous youth may be swayed by extremist narratives,” al-Shami told Asharq Al-Awsat, adding that “those with experience and awareness are working to contain these tendencies, which only aggravate problems rather than solve them.”

He also cautioned that ISIS remains a looming threat, capable of exploiting simmering discontent in Salafi circles and drawing in defectors from factions opposed to Syria’s new leadership under al-Sharaa.

“ISIS thrives in environments where ignorance and extremism take root,” he said.

“The group could recruit from those who once fought under revolutionary banners, only to find themselves later disillusioned with a political reality that doesn’t match the slogans they lived by,” explained al-Shami.

As al-Sharaa’s administration pushes ahead with normalization and international outreach, including controversial overtures to former foes, observers say the ability to manage backlash from former allies and militant hardliners will be key to preserving security and cohesion.



‘Life and Hope’: Lebanon Hospital Resilient After Israeli Attack

02 June 2026, Lebanon, Tyre: Debris and extensive damage are pictured inside the Jabal Amel Hospital in Tyre after Monday's Israeli strike. (dpa)
02 June 2026, Lebanon, Tyre: Debris and extensive damage are pictured inside the Jabal Amel Hospital in Tyre after Monday's Israeli strike. (dpa)
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‘Life and Hope’: Lebanon Hospital Resilient After Israeli Attack

02 June 2026, Lebanon, Tyre: Debris and extensive damage are pictured inside the Jabal Amel Hospital in Tyre after Monday's Israeli strike. (dpa)
02 June 2026, Lebanon, Tyre: Debris and extensive damage are pictured inside the Jabal Amel Hospital in Tyre after Monday's Israeli strike. (dpa)

In a south Lebanon hospital heavily damaged by deadly Israeli strikes nearby, Dr. Nasser al-Masri held a new-born baby, calling him "a message of life and hope" despite the war.

Israeli strikes near the Jabal Amel hospital in Tyre on Monday killed four people and wounded 127, including four doctors, 27 nurses, and eight administrative employees, Lebanon's health ministry said.

They also caused "severe and extensive damage" to the facility, it added.

"Despite everything that happened yesterday, there was a scheduled delivery today... (and) the mother insisted on delivering at the hospital," Masri said.

"This baby was born today, he's just a few minutes old... He brought us a message of life and a message of hope for the future."

Glass was scattered across some hospital rooms on Tuesday, while dust and debris covered beds and tables.

Medication was strewn on corridor floors, and staff tried to work as others cleaned up around them.

"We're taking in any patient that comes to us," Masri said, adding that "even two hours after the raids, we were able to work normally, and the administration is determined to stay and work".

Around the hospital, the devastation was stark: a nearby building had been levelled, others were severely damaged and debris was scattered round near parked ambulances.

The roof of the hospital's parking collapsed, crushing several vehicles. Bulldozers worked to clear away the rubble.

- 'Steadfast' -

Inspecting the damage, Mohammad Derbaj, head of the hospital's maintenance department, said that "the civilian buildings were not the intended target, but rather Jabal Amel was targeted in order to put it out of service, but we are steadfast".

"What happened has increased our determination and strength," he added, as the hospital administration "made a decision yesterday that the hospital will return... We will work day and night to restore the hospital to what it was".

Israeli strikes have not spared Lebanese hospitals since the start of the latest Israel-Hezbollah war on March 2.

The health ministry says 17 hospitals have been damaged, with three forced to close, and 128 rescuers and medical personnel have been killed.

The Lebanese Italian hospital in Tyre was also damaged by an Israeli attack in April.

A strike last month near the city's Hiram hospital wounded 13 staff and damaged it, according to the ministry.

At Jabal Amel hospital on Tuesday, Hussein Qassir, head of the intensive care unit, told AFP they transferred patients from one ICU ward after it sustained significant damage in the airstrikes.

"We were expecting a strike near or adjacent to the hospital... but I didn't expect that the intensive care unit would be this damaged (but) the situation could have been so much worse.

"Despite this, we continue... it is our duty."

- 'Criminality' -

Abdinasir Abubakar, World Health Organization Representative to Lebanon, said on Tuesday that "two out of three hospitals" in the Tyre district, Jabal Amel and Hiram, "are damaged although continuing to function, and the third hospital is overwhelmed as it deals with an influx of injured patients".

The historic city in southern Lebanon, which still hosts thousands of displaced people from nearby areas, has been subject to repeated Israeli strikes that have continued despite an April 17 ceasefire agreement that has not been respected by either Israel or Hezbollah.

Israel's military has repeatedly warned residents of Tyre and its surroundings to evacuate in preparation for what it said are operations against Hezbollah.

Staffer Khalil Mustapha, displaced from the border town of Aitaroun, took shelter in the hospital after losing his home.

"I no longer have a home. Israel destroyed it and I came to the hospital. I never expected their level of criminality would reach this point," he said.

Zainab Fakih, who works in the laboratory, was sitting with her colleagues when the attack came.

"We were terrified... We opened the doors and rubble rained down on us, but luckily no one was hurt," she said.

"We didn't think they would bomb the area around the hospital. But we come here because this is our job, even though our families object", fearing for their safety.


Iran War Hands Syria Windfall as Airlines Reroute over Its Airspace

A Jazeera Airways Airbus A320neo takes off from Damascus International Airport, as regional airlines resume their flights to Syria after a hiatus because of the war, in Damascus, Syria, May 31, 2026. Syria's General Authority of Civil Aviation/Handout via REUTERS
A Jazeera Airways Airbus A320neo takes off from Damascus International Airport, as regional airlines resume their flights to Syria after a hiatus because of the war, in Damascus, Syria, May 31, 2026. Syria's General Authority of Civil Aviation/Handout via REUTERS
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Iran War Hands Syria Windfall as Airlines Reroute over Its Airspace

A Jazeera Airways Airbus A320neo takes off from Damascus International Airport, as regional airlines resume their flights to Syria after a hiatus because of the war, in Damascus, Syria, May 31, 2026. Syria's General Authority of Civil Aviation/Handout via REUTERS
A Jazeera Airways Airbus A320neo takes off from Damascus International Airport, as regional airlines resume their flights to Syria after a hiatus because of the war, in Damascus, Syria, May 31, 2026. Syria's General Authority of Civil Aviation/Handout via REUTERS

Syria recorded nearly 12,000 aircraft transits in May as regional airlines rerouted around airspace disrupted by conflict in the Middle East and into skies that most carriers had avoided for more than a decade.

Figures from Syria's General Authority for Civil Aviation show 11,801 flights crossed Syrian airspace, more than double the 4,267 recorded in February, the last full month before the Iran war disrupted regional aviation. Overflights in May were about 375% higher than in the same month last year.

Syria's airspace was a no-go zone throughout the 14-year civil war that ended with the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad in late 2024.

The turnaround is potentially lucrative for Syria, which increased the fees it charges airlines early this year.

Based on a flat fee of $499 per flight introduced by Syria's new government, last month's traffic could ‌have generated as much ‌as $5.9 million in overflight revenue, according to Reuters calculations.

The General Authority for Civil ‌Aviation ⁠declined to comment on ⁠revenue potential and the new fees.

Airlines were forced to reassess Syria after US and Israeli airstrikes began the Iran war on February 28 the airspace over Iraq and the Gulf that airlines previously relied upon was shut during March.

A ceasefire led to the reopening of airspace in April, but the majority of flights to Europe from Dubai and Doha - two of the world's busiest aviation hubs - have since crossed central Syria rather than Iraq, according to flight-tracking services Flightradar24 and AirNav.

Flying over Syria cuts journey times and fuel costs as airlines try to lessen the impact of the surge in international oil ⁠prices caused by the disruption linked to the Iran war.

SYRIA IS STILL HIGH RISK

Syria ‌upgraded infrastructure at Damascus International Airport after receiving advanced radar and ‌navigation systems from Türkiye late last year, according to Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu.

Even so, OPSGroup, an aviation risk monitoring advisory body, said ‌that airspace over Syria is still considered risky and is operating with "procedural control only" - the most basic level ‌of air traffic control.

Traffic remains less than half the levels before Syria's war, according to aviation officials, and the increase in traffic is largely limited to Gulf carriers as Europe's aviation safety agency still recommends airlines avoid flying over the country and region due to the Iran conflict.

Asian and North American carriers are also largely avoiding Middle Eastern airspace.

Syrian authorities, however, are upbeat.

"The increase ‌in overflight traffic reflects the beginning of a real shift in how airlines view Syrian airspace, as a viable and dependable route once again within the regional ⁠air traffic network," General Authority ⁠for Civil Aviation head Omar al-Hosari told Reuters.

He said GACA had updated air routes, reassessed traffic patterns and strengthened navigation, surveillance and air traffic control systems and adopted risk-based safety assessments in line with standards set by the International Civil Aviation Organization.

As part of an overhaul of the payment systems for overflights, GACA has outsourced the collection of charges to Syrian handling agents, as well as OPSGroup and International Flight Planning Solutions, a private Lebanese flight-planning firm.

Syria's flat fee of $499 per flight - divided between a $430 charge and a $69 communication fee - is regardless of aircraft type, size or operation type, according to a GACA document reviewed by Reuters and FAS Aero, one of the handling agents contracted by the government. Handling agents often add further fees on top.

Under Assad, Syria charged $75 for smaller aircraft to fly over the country, or about $1 to 1.25 per metric ton for larger planes, according to OPSGroup and a Syrian aviation official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The GACA document also shows a 50% reduction in levies for domestic flights and aircraft registered in Syria, and full exemptions for aircraft belonging to heads of states, official delegations, and search and rescue operations.


Iran Eyes Limited US Deal to Relieve Economic Strain and Buy Time

 A drone view shows vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 1, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view shows vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 1, 2026. (Reuters)
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Iran Eyes Limited US Deal to Relieve Economic Strain and Buy Time

 A drone view shows vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 1, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view shows vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 1, 2026. (Reuters)

Iran is pushing for a limited interim agreement with the United States in a bid to ease mounting economic pressure and stabilize the situation at home, while avoiding major concessions on its nuclear program, according to sources and analysts.

The approach reflects a familiar playbook for the Iranian regime: absorb pressure, avoid irreversible compromises and keep negotiations alive without shifting core positions, three Iranian sources close to decision-makers said, according to Reuters.

But the latest push is also driven by more immediate concerns. Officials see a narrow deal as a way to buy time, unlock financial relief and contain rising domestic risks over a deteriorating economy without addressing the most contentious issues.

The diplomatic maneuvering follows weeks of escalation after US-Israeli strikes in late February spiraled into a broader regional conflict. Iranian attacks across the Gulf heightened fears over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Three months on, and ‌despite a fragile ‌ceasefire in early April, the conflict has hardened into a stalemate. A US blockade on ‌Iranian ⁠ports and Tehran's ⁠grip on the Strait have sustained mutual pressure, driving up economic costs while leaving the risk of renewed fighting unresolved.

Against that backdrop, both sides have lowered expectations of a comprehensive settlement. Instead, they are exploring what officials describe as a temporary memorandum — effectively an interim deal — aimed at preventing a return to open conflict, while deferring core disputes over Iran's nuclear activities.

TEHRAN SEEKS BREATHING SPACE

For Tehran, such an arrangement is primarily a means of converting military and economic pressure into liquidity, breathing space and de-escalation, without curbing sensitive nuclear work.

Iran is seeking an end to hostilities across all fronts, including Lebanon, access to billions of dollars in oil revenues, waivers on crude ⁠exports, a lifting of the US port blockade and continued leverage over the strait, ‌while postponing decisions on the most contentious issues.

The framework would center on temporary ‌easing and phased access through the waterway, leaving unresolved questions over enrichment capacity and Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, including material enriched to ‌60%.

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said Tehran's calculation is shaped less by battlefield ‌risks than by economic pressure and uncertainty.

"Iranian leaders understand that time is not necessarily on their side... their calculation appears to be that dialogue, even limited dialogue, is preferable to entering an open-ended period of economic attrition and uncertainty that could gradually weaken its ability to govern at home and project influence abroad."

TEHRAN FEARS PROTEST REVIVAL

Much rests on the success of negotiations. President Donald Trump is under pressure to reopen ‌the Strait of Hormuz and curb US fuel prices, while fending off criticism from Iran hawks in his own Republican party over any concessions to Tehran.

Iran's leadership also ⁠faces domestic pressures. Years of sanctions, ⁠economic mismanagement and conflict have fueled inflation, currency depreciation and a sharp decline in living standards.

Short-term financial inflows are therefore crucial to Tehran's interest in a preliminary deal, the sources said, as they could keep the economy running, ease immediate pressures and stave off a resurgence of unrest.

In January, Iran's clerical establishment and the Revolutionary Guards killed thousands while suppressing nationwide protests sparked by economic grievances.

Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, said a memorandum could also address mounting concerns about the long-term resilience of the system.

"By ending the conflict, reducing economic strain, removing US military pressure around Iran, and creating space for reconstruction, an MoU could help prevent a gradual erosion of state capacity and governance," Azizi said.

STRAIT REMAINS IRAN'S LEVERAGE

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to Iran's leverage. Within the clerical establishment, it is increasingly seen less as a bargaining chip than as a durable strategic asset.

Any arrangement that restores shipping while preserving that leverage would leave Tehran's influence over the chokepoint intact, the sources said, allowing flows to resume while stability remains tied to political negotiation.

One source said a limited deal would effectively restore prewar conditions without forcing Iran to yield to Washington’s demands, adding: "With the start of the war, Trump gave Iran the gift of control over the Strait."