Trump Is at a Moment of Choosing as Israel Looks for More US Help Crushing Iran's Nuclear Program 

US President Donald Trump gestures as he attends a family photo session during the G7 Summit, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
US President Donald Trump gestures as he attends a family photo session during the G7 Summit, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
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Trump Is at a Moment of Choosing as Israel Looks for More US Help Crushing Iran's Nuclear Program 

US President Donald Trump gestures as he attends a family photo session during the G7 Summit, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
US President Donald Trump gestures as he attends a family photo session during the G7 Summit, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)

President Donald Trump in about eight hours Monday went from suggesting a nuclear deal with Iran remained "achievable" to urging Tehran's 9.5 million residents to flee for their lives as he cut short his visit to an international summit to return to Washington for urgent talks with his national security team.

He was expected to arrive at the White House early Tuesday at a moment of choosing in his presidency. Israel, with four days of missile strikes, has done considerable damage to Iran and believes it can now deal a permanent blow to Tehran's nuclear program, particularly if it gets a little more help from Trump.

But deepening American involvement, perhaps by providing the Israelis with bunker-busting bombs to penetrate Iranian nuclear sites built deep underground or offering other direct US military support, comes with enormous political risk for Trump.

He appears to be gradually building the public case for more direct American involvement.

"Iran should have signed the 'deal' I told them to sign," Trump posted on social media shortly before the White House announced that Trump was cutting short his visit to the Group of Seven summit in the Canadian Rockies. "What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!"

Trump's shift in tone comes as the US has repositioned warships and military aircraft in the region to respond if the conflict between Israel and Iran further escalates.

Speculation grows that Trump may be tilting toward more direct involvement

The Israelis say their offensive has eviscerated Iran's air defenses and they can now strike targets across the country at will. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the Israeli bombardment will continue until Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles are destroyed.

So far, Israel has targeted multiple Iranian nuclear program sites but has not been able to destroy Iran's Fordo uranium enrichment facility.

The site is buried deep underground and to eliminate it, Israel may need the US bunker-busting bomb the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which uses its weight and sheer kinetic force to reach deeply buried targets and then explode. But Israel does not have the munition or the bomber needed to deliver it; the penetrator is currently delivered by the B-2 stealth bomber.

Israel's own defenses remain largely intact in the face of Iran's retaliatory strikes, but some of Tehran's missiles are getting through and having deadly impact.

The White House, soon after announcing Trump was returning to Washington, dispatched Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for a prime-time Fox News appearance as speculation grows about whether Trump could be tilting toward more direct US involvement.

Hegseth told Fox News' Jesse Watters that "of course" Trump wanted to see a deal made to curb Iran's nuclear program.

"His position has not changed," Hegseth said. "What you're watching in real time is peace through strength and America first. Our job is to be strong. We are postured defensively in the region to be strong in pursuit of a peace deal. And we certainly hope that's what happens here."

Trump continues to push Iran to negotiate

Trump, meanwhile, during an exchange with reporters Monday on the sidelines of the G7, declined to say what it would take for the US to get more directly involved.

Instead, he continued to press Iran on negotiations over its nuclear program.

"They should talk, and they should talk immediately," Trump said during a bilateral meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. He added, "I'd say Iran is not winning this war."

To be certain, Trump in the days-old conflict has sought to restrain Netanyahu. He rejected a plan presented by Israel to the US to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, according to a US official familiar with the matter.

The Israelis had informed the Trump administration in recent days that they had developed a credible plan to kill Khamenei.

After being briefed on the plan, the White House made clear to Israeli officials that Trump was opposed to the Israelis making the move, according to the official, who was not authorized to comment on the sensitive matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

A widening schism over Iran among Trump's MAGA supporters

Trump on Monday bristled when asked about some of his MAGA faithful, including conservative pundit Tucker Carlson, who have suggested that further US involvement would be a betrayal to supporters who were drawn to his promise to end US involvement in expensive and endless wars.

Carlson, a former Fox News host pundit, last week called Trump "complicit in the act of war" in his subscriber newsletter.

Trump took a veiled swipe at Carlson, who for years hosted a popular prime-time show for Fox News, but was ousted in 2023 amid a cascade of bad legal news for the network.

"I don't know what Tucker Carlson is saying," Trump told reporters. "Let him go get a television network and say it so that people listen."

Later, Trump took another jab at Carlson, who had spoken on Trump's behalf at the 2024 Republican National Convention.

"Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that,' IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!'" the president wrote on social media.

Other prominent Trump supporters have also raised concerns about how far the president should go in backing Israel.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk are among prominent Trump World allies who have noted that voters backed Trump because he promised not to entangle the nation in foreign clashes and to be wary of expanding US involvement in the Mideast conflict.

He ran on a promise to quickly end the brutal wars in Gaza and Ukraine, but has struggled to find an endgame to either of those conflicts.

"No issue currently divides the right as much as foreign policy," Kirk posted on X last week, shortly before Israel began carrying out its strikes. "I'm very concerned based on (everything) I've seen in the grassroots the last few months that this will cause a massive schism in MAGA and potentially disrupt our momentum and our insanely successful Presidency."

But there are also Trump backers, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who are making the case that this is Trump's moment to deliver a decisive blow to Iran. Graham is calling for Trump to "go all-in" in backing Israel and destroying Iran's nuclear program.

"No one can say that President @realDonaldTrump has not tried to seek peace regarding Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Iran," Graham wrote on X on Monday night. "He has gone the extra mile and I appreciate that. However, you have to have willing partners to make peace. Iran played the same old game with the wrong guy."



Netanyahu’s Governing Coalition Is Fracturing. Here’s What It Means for Israel and Gaza

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
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Netanyahu’s Governing Coalition Is Fracturing. Here’s What It Means for Israel and Gaza

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government suffered a serious blow on Tuesday when an ultra-Orthodox party announced it was bolting the coalition.

While this doesn’t immediately threaten Netanyahu’s rule, it could set in motion his government’s demise, although that could still be months away. It also could complicate efforts to halt the war in Gaza.

United Torah Judaism's two factions said they were leaving the government because of disagreements over a proposed law that would end broad exemptions for religious students from enlistment into the military.

Military service is compulsory for most Jewish Israelis, and the issue of exemptions has long divided the country. Those rifts have only widened since the start of the war in Gaza as demand for military manpower has grown and hundreds of soldiers have been killed.

The threat to the government “looks more serious than ever,” said Shuki Friedman, vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.

Netanyahu is on trial for alleged corruption, and critics say he wants to hang on to power so that he can use his office as a bully pulpit to rally supporters and lash out against prosecutors and judges. That makes him all the more vulnerable to the whims of his coalition allies.

Here is a look at Netanyahu's political predicament and some potential scenarios:

The ultra-Orthodox are key partners

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest serving leader, has long relied on the ultra-Orthodox parties to prop up his governments.

Without UTJ, his coalition holds just 61 out of parliament’s 120 seats. That means Netanyahu will be more susceptible to pressure from other elements within his government, especially far-right parties who strongly oppose ending the war in Gaza.

The political shake up isn't likely to completely derail ceasefire talks, but it could complicate how flexible Netanyahu can be in his concessions to Hamas.

A second ultra-Orthodox party is also considering bolting the government over the draft issue. That would give Netanyahu a minority in parliament and make governing almost impossible.

The ultra-Orthodox military exemptions have divided Israel

A decades-old arrangement by Israel’s first prime minister granted hundreds of ultra-Orthodox men exemptions from compulsory Israeli service. Over the years, those exemptions ballooned into the thousands and created deep divisions in Israel.

The ultra-Orthodox say their men are serving the country by studying sacred Jewish texts and preserving centuries’ old tradition. They fear that mandatory enlistment will dilute adherents’ connection to the faith.

But most Jewish Israelis see the exemption as unfair, as well as the generous government stipends granted to many ultra-Orthodox men who study instead of work throughout adulthood. That bitterness has only worsened during nearly two years of war.

The politically powerful ultra-Orthodox parties have long had outsize influence in Israel’s fragmented political system and used that status to extract major concessions for their constituents.

But a court last year ruled Netanyahu’s government must enlist the ultra-Orthodox so long as there is no new law codifying the exemptions.

Netanyahu’s coalition has been trying to find a path forward on a new law. But his base is largely opposed to granting sweeping draft exemptions and a key lawmaker has stood in the way of giving the ultra-Orthodox a law they can get behind, prompting their exit.

The political shake up comes during Gaza ceasefire talks

The resignations don't take effect for 48 hours, so Netanyahu will likely spend the next two days seeking a compromise. But that won't be easy because the Supreme Court has said the old system of exemptions amounts to discrimination against the secular majority.

That does not mean the government will collapse.

Netanyahu's opponents cannot submit a motion to dissolve parliament until the end of the year because of procedural reasons. And with parliament's summer recess beginning later this month, the parties could use that time to find a compromise and return to the government.

Cabinet Minister Miki Zohar, from Netanyahu’s Likud party, said he was hopeful the religious party could be coaxed back to the coalition. “God willing, everything will be fine,” he said. A Likud spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Once the departures become official, Netanyahu will have a razor-thin majority. The far-right parties within it could threaten to leave the coalition, further weakening him, if he gives in to too many of Hamas' demands.

Hamas wants a permanent end to the war as part of any ceasefire deal. Netanyahu's hard-line partners are open to a temporary truce, but say the war cannot end until Hamas is destroyed.

If they or any other party leave the coalition, Netanyahu will have a minority government, and that will make it almost impossible to govern and likely lead to its collapse. But he could still find ways to approve a ceasefire deal, including with support from the political opposition.

Israel may be on the path toward early elections

Netanyahu could seek to shore up his coalition by appeasing the far-right and agreeing for now to just a partial, 60-day ceasefire with Hamas, promising his governing partners that he can still resume the war once it expires.

But Netanyahu is balancing those political constraints with pressure from the Trump administration, which is pressing Israel to wrap up the war.

Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said she expects Netanyahu to work during those 60 days to shift the narrative away from the draft exemptions and the war in Gaza, toward something that could potentially give him an electoral boost – like an expansion of US-led normalization deals between Israel and Arab or Muslim countries.

Once the 60-day ceasefire is up, Netanyahu could bend to US pressure to end the war and bring home the remaining hostages in Gaza — a move most Israelis would support.

Elections are currently scheduled for October 2026. But if Netanyahu feels like he has improved his political standing, he may want to call elections before then.