The Strait of Hormuz has shifted, amid the current crisis, from a vital shipping lane into a strategic bargaining chip, anchored in Iran’s ability to keep passage uncertain, legally open, yet militarily threatened, politically conditioned, and economically sensitive.
A report by the Gulf Research Center, published on Tuesday, said Gulf states are the most exposed to the fallout from using Hormuz as leverage.
It said the strait’s impact goes beyond energy exports, extending to port security, supply chains, insurance, investment, the reputation of the economic environment, and the continuity of trade flows.
The report, prepared by retired Naval Admiral Abdullah Jaber AlZaidi, senior adviser for defense and security studies at the center, said Gulf states must not only protect the waterway but also reduce their vulnerability to strategic blackmail.
That requires stronger maritime early warning, a more integrated maritime picture, higher readiness to protect ports and infrastructure, alternative supply chain plans, and closer coordination with international partners, without turning the region into an open arena for escalation.
Iran’s approach, the report said, rarely reaches full closure. Instead, it relies on selective restrictions or threats, particularly against ships it views as tied to logistical support for US bases or as subject to maritime pressure. This gives Tehran room to maneuver, allowing it to calibrate between escalation and de-escalation.
The United States, by contrast, is using naval and air deployments as deterrence and counter-pressure, seeking to make any disruption of Hormuz a high-cost option for Iran. The aim is to curb escalation and reassure allies and markets that freedom of navigation will not be held hostage by Iran.
The report warned that the crisis is governed by a fragile balance. Iran is betting on raising the cost of passage without exhausting the Hormuz card, while the United States is betting on stronger deterrence without tipping into open conflict. Gulf states remain the most affected, as Hormuz is no longer just a navigation issue, but a broad national security concern spanning energy, ports, insurance, investment, supply chains, and regional stability.
Maritime pressure and the shadow fleet
The report said Iran’s use of Hormuz cannot be separated from wider maritime and economic pressure imposed on it. This goes beyond direct restrictions on Iranian ports to targeting shipping networks, insurance, intermediaries, and tankers that help Tehran bypass sanctions and market oil and petroleum products outside official channels.
Recent US measures against shipping firms and tankers linked to Iranian oil are not just financial sanctions, the report said, but part of dismantling Iran’s ability to sustain unofficial maritime trade.
Strategic ambiguity
Iran’s shifting statements on the strait reflect a deliberate strategy of ambiguity, the report said. The messaging has moved from allowing commercial transit, to linking passage, to de-escalation, to tougher positions on monitoring or restricting some vessels.
This is not an inconsistency, but an effort to keep the strait in a gray zone.
At its core, the strait remains legally open, but militarily threatened and subject to political and security conditions. That alone is enough to unsettle shipping firms, insurers, and vessel owners, who base decisions on worst-case risks, not reassuring statements.
The report said Iran adds a more sensitive layer by claiming some transiting ships provide logistical support for US bases in the Gulf, shifting from the language of disruption to a claim of the right to monitor what it sees as threats to its sovereignty.
Iran’s strategy reflects an awareness of its limits in conventional naval operations, offset by effective tools of disruption, confusion, and gray-zone pressure, the report said. These include direct military tools, hybrid gray-zone and cyber tools, and psychological and information warfare.
The Strait of Hormuz is narrow, the report said, and any incident could escalate quickly, whether a ship refusing inspection or a mine hitting the wrong target. Such events could shift the dynamic from bargaining to confrontation, stripping Iran of control over escalation and turning leverage into liability.
Impact on Gulf security
Gulf states remain the most exposed to the fallout, the report said, as Hormuz affects not only energy exports but also ports, supply chains, insurance, investment, the business environment, and trade flows.
Iran’s use of the strait puts Gulf states in a delicate position, the report noted, adding that they need to protect freedom of navigation, but do not want the strait to become an open confrontation zone.
It also mentioned that Gulf states need international deterrence, but know that any broad escalation would hit them directly, economically, and in security terms.
The report said Gulf states must go beyond protecting the passage and work to reduce their vulnerability to strategic blackmail.
This requires stronger maritime early warning, better integration of maritime awareness, higher readiness to protect ports and infrastructure, alternative supply chain planning, and tighter coordination with international partners, without turning the region into an open theater of escalation.
