Iraq’s Kurds Heading Towards Independence

From the very first moment the majority of the Kurdish parties agreed to hold an independence referendum in Iraq’s Kurdistan, Amid Nankali and a group of young people started to prepare for this process by raising awareness among citizens through social media platforms on the need to vote in favor of the establishment of an independent Kurdish state.

Millions of Kurds in the Kurdistan region, Iraq and foreign countries are expected to vote in the general referendum organized by the Iraqi Kurdistan government on September 25 to determine the fate of their province.

The “Sykes-Picot” Agreement, which was signed in 1916, distributed Kurdish lands in four countries, including Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria.

Over the last 100 years, the Kurds have been subjected to many genocide campaigns by the successive Iraqi regimes. The most notorious of these were the campaigns launched by the Baathist regime led by former President Saddam Hussein, who, since his party took power in Iraq in 1968, has sought to eradicate the Kurdish population in Iraq.

One of these campaigns was the genocide against the Barzani family, which resulted in the extermination of more than 8,000 of them within a day.

Another massacre against the Kurdish people took place in March 1988, when chemical weapons were used in the city of Halabja, killing more than 5,000 Kurdish civilians and injuring more than 10,000, some of whom still suffer today.

“We, as a group of young volunteers, organize daily activities to educate citizens and support the referendum process,” said Amid Nankali, who brought a collection of Kurdistan flags in preparation for the referendum day.

“Why should we stay with Iraq?” Asks Nankali.

And whether the demands of some countries may lead to the postponement of this process, the young Kurdish activist said: “Many countries and peoples of the world hold referenda for self-determination; why are all of them entitled to this and we Kurds, the oldest peoples of the world, cannot enjoy this legitimate right?”

“The referendum will not be postponed; and we will run on schedule,” he added.

Despite the Kurdish vote in favor of the Iraqi Constitution and the success of the political process in the new Iraq, relations between the two sides was overshadowed by tension, and reached the extent of military confrontation, especially under former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who moved the Iraqi Army to attack Peshmerga forces in Khanaqin, Kirkuk and other Kurdish areas that lie outside the region’s administration (in the disputed areas).

In the beginning of 2014, Maliki cut the share of the province from Iraq’s federal budget and reduced the salaries of Kurdish employees, causing a major economic crisis in the region.

Peshmerga forces played a major role in preventing the fall of Iraqi territory under ISIS control.

It fought the terrorist organization and prevented its expansion. Fierce battles resulted in the liberation of large areas and made ISIS lose its offensive capabilities almost entirely.

However, the Iraqi government, according to the sources of the Peshmerga ministry and the Kurdistan Regional Government, did not provide any financial or military support to the Kurdish forces, and refused to give them their share of weapons and equipment supplied by the International Coalition.

On August 14, a delegation from the Supreme Council for the Referendum in Kurdistan arrived in Baghdad to negotiate the independence referendum with the government and all Iraqi parties.

The delegation returned to Kurdistan after a week of talks, declaring that the outcome of the meetings was positive.

Last week, the US Secretary of Defense and the Turkish and French Foreign and Defense Ministers conducted separate visits to the region.

While the US and Turkish ministers expressed reservations about the timing of the referendum, the French ministers stressed that their country, just as it supported the region in times of war, would support it in peacetime as well.

The Iranian regime, for its part, has declared its rejection of the referendum and called for the survival of the territory within the framework of a unified Iraq.

Nonetheless, a senior Kurdish source told Asharq al-Awsat that Tehran and Ankara would “never close their borders with the region”, underlining extensive trade relations between these two regional states and the Kurdish region.

According to a deputy of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (the party of former Iraqi President Jalal Talbani), the referendum has brought all the Kurdish parties on one road.

“We, in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, support the independence referendum because it is a national issue and it brings hope to all of us. We, Kurds, must support this process, and we cannot stand against it for any reason,” MP Khalaf Ahmad told Asharq al-Awsat.

On the other hand, the member of the General Council of the “Movement for Change”, Saber Ismail Hamza, told Asharq al-Awsat that his movement supported the referendum, but did not see the current time appropriate to conduct it.

“We prefer to postpone it now,” he stated.

The Israeli security apparatuses are investigating the type of kamikaze drone that Hezbollah used on Sunday evening to hit a Golani Brigade base near Binyamina south of Haifa, killing four soldiers and wounding about 90 others, including 12 soldiers with serious injuries.

Ron Ben-Yishai, a security expert at the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, said that from the limited details currently available, the drone was likely a Sayyad 107 model, a UAV manufactured in Iran and widely used by Hezbollah, which also produces it in large quantities in Lebanon.

“The model’s flight path can be programmed to frequently change altitude and direction, making it difficult to detect and track,” Ben-Yishai said.

“It has a range of up to 100 kilometers (62 miles) and is small, with a very low radar signature compared to larger, metal-made UAVs. Its detection relies on the heat emitted by the engine, which is also challenging to identify via optical means,” he added.

According to the security expert, the military is examining all possibilities, but it's almost certain that the UAV, which hit a critical target and caused many casualties, wasn't only a specialized model but also Hezbollah managed to overwhelm or disrupt the Israeli army’s detection systems by launching a mixed salvo of rockets and two other drones aimed at the Western Galilee.

Ben-Yishai noted that the UAVs continued toward the sea off the northern coast and the Iron Dome system intercepted one.

The Israeli army dispatched fighter jets and combat helicopters to track the remaining UAV, but contact with it was lost, he said.

The expert said it is possible that the UAV was pre-programmed to sharply descend toward the ground or the sea and continue flying at low altitude, exploiting the coastal terrain and then the hills of the coastal plain to evade interceptors.

“Hezbollah has gained considerable experience in operating UAVs over the past year, successfully causing numerous casualties among civilians and primarily IDF soldiers at remote bases,” Ben-Yishai wrote, adding that over half of the drones launched by Hezbollah are intercepted, either by the Israeli army fighter jets sent to engage them or by the Iron Dome and David's Sling systems.

However, he noted, due to the UAV's small size and very weak radar signature, the Iron Dome's fire control radars and the optical sensors on fighter jets and helicopters often lose track of them, especially in hilly areas where radar echoes from the terrain are dominant and misleading.

Ben-Yishai revealed that the Israeli army and defense industries have been trying to find a solution to this issue at least since the current war began, but there is still no effective detection and interception solution.

He said the sophisticated UAVs manufactured by Iran are equipped with inertial navigation systems in addition to satellite navigation, enabling them to stay on course and strike their targets even when faced with GPS jamming.

“This is intended to mislead them, but Iran and Hezbollah sometimes bypass the American GPS jamming by using unique satellite navigation systems developed by Russia or China,” Ben-Yishai said.

Iraq’s Kurds Heading Towards Independence