Qatar Stuck between Rise in Foreign Debt, Threatened Stake in Gas Markets

 An aerial view of Doha's diplomatic area March 21, 2013. REUTERS/Fadi Al-Assaad/File Photo
An aerial view of Doha's diplomatic area March 21, 2013. REUTERS/Fadi Al-Assaad/File Photo
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Qatar Stuck between Rise in Foreign Debt, Threatened Stake in Gas Markets

 An aerial view of Doha's diplomatic area March 21, 2013. REUTERS/Fadi Al-Assaad/File Photo
An aerial view of Doha's diplomatic area March 21, 2013. REUTERS/Fadi Al-Assaad/File Photo

Several international economic reports have described Qatar’s current economic status as “threatened to collapse.”

These reports stressed that Qatar’s economy has been facing a very difficult period because investment capitals are not completing their projects and plans; Qatar is heading towards borrowing money despite the rise in the value of foreign debt, which has amounted to 150 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.

The threats that dominate Qatar's economy are not only related to the investment pause, the decline in purchasing power, nor to the limited competitiveness of Doha's air force but they have also reached the gas markets.

International news agencies said that Australia now threats Qatar’s Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production as it is planning to boost exports of LNG by 16 percent from 2018.

On the other hand, Doha is considering raising at least nine billion dollars from international bond markets as the gas-rich nation boycotted by its neighbors seeks to replenish state coffers, news agencies said.

In June, Moody’s confirmed that Qatar’s credit quality would decline if tensions with its Gulf neighbors continue for much longer, raising the country’s debt ratio and hurting banks’ liquidity.

Amid recent indications that Doha is unable to hide the risks its economy has been facing, Qatar's stock market has been facing in the recent weeks a stage that proves the size of the risks threatening Qatar’s economy with Qatar's index reached its lowest level in five years.

In this context, Qatar’s central bank has added the equivalent of about $19 billion of previously unreported foreign-currency assets to its total reserves in August based on an International Monetary Fund recommendation, a move that helps offset the impact of the Saudi-led embargo.

Doha has also been facing a major crisis in terms of economic slowdown. Official figures show that Qatar's economic growth has hit its worst level since the beginning of the global financial crisis.

In addition, there is a high-risk level of liquidity shortage in local banks amid indicators showing Qatar’s central bank’s inability to continue withdrawing from the foreign deposits for so long; since this reveals the volume of financial threats in which Doha’s government won’t be able to face.



Ukraine Threatens to Halt Transit of Russian Oil to Europe

A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
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Ukraine Threatens to Halt Transit of Russian Oil to Europe

A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo

A top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday said Kyiv would halt the transit of Russian oil across its territory at the end of the year, when the current contract expires and is not renewed.

Mykhailo Podolyak said in an interview with the Novini.Live broadcaster that current transit contracts for Russian supplies that run through the end of the year will not be renewed.

“There is no doubt that it will all end on January 1, 2025,” he said.

Kiev says it is prepared to transport gas from the Central Asian countries or Azerbaijan to Europe, but not from Russia, as it is crucial for Ukraine to deprive Russia of its sources of income from the sale of raw materials after it attacked its neighbor well over two years ago.

The contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe between the state-owned companies Gazprom and Naftogaz ends on December 31.

Despite the launch of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainians have fulfilled the contract terms - in part at the insistence of its European neighbors, especially Hungary.

But the leadership in Kiev has repeatedly made it clear that it wants the shipments to end.

Meanwhile, the Czech Republic energy security envoy Vaclav Bartuska said on Friday that any potential halt in oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine from Russia from next year would not be a problem for the country.

Responding to a Reuters question – on comments by Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak that flows of Russian oil may stop from January – Bartuska said Ukraine had also in the past warned of a potential halt.

“This is not the first time, this time maybe they mean it seriously – we shall see,” Bartuska said in a text message. “For the Czech Republic, it is not a problem.”

To end partial dependency on the Druzhba pipeline, Czech state-owned pipeline operator MERO has been investing in raising the capacity of the TAL pipeline from Italy to Germany, which connects to the IKL pipeline supplying the Czech Republic.

From next year, the increased capacity would be sufficient for the total needs of the country’s two refineries, owned by Poland’s Orlen, of up to 8 million tons of crude per year.

MERO has said it planned to achieve the country’s independence from Russian oil from the start of 2025, although the TAL upgrade would be finished by June 2025.

On Friday, oil prices stabilized, heading for a weekly increase, as disruptions in Libyan production and Iraq’s plans to curb output raised concerns about supply.

Meanwhile, data showing that the US economy grew faster than initially estimated eased recession fears.

However, signs of weakening demand, particularly in China, capped gains.

Brent crude futures for October delivery, which expire on Friday, fell by 7 cents, or 0.09%, to $79.87 per barrel. The more actively traded November contract rose 5 cents, or 0.06%, to $78.87.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures added 6 cents, or 0.08%, to $75.97 per barrel.

The day before, both benchmarks had risen by more than $1, and so far this week, they have gained 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Additionally, a drop in Libyan exports and the prospect of lower Iraqi crude production in September are expected to help keep the oil market undersupplied.

Over half of Libya’s oil production, around 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), was halted on Thursday, and exports were suspended at several ports due to a standoff between rival political factions.

Elsewhere, Iraq plans to reduce oil output in September as part of a plan to compensate for producing over the quota agreed with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

Iraq, which produced 4.25 million bpd in July, will cut output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million bpd next month, the source said.