Despite 2016 Defeats, Shabaab Returning in Force in Somalia

Security forces stand guard on a destroyed building following a car bomb claimed by al-Shabaab terrorists in the Somali capital Mogadishu, August 30, 2016. (Reuters)
Security forces stand guard on a destroyed building following a car bomb claimed by al-Shabaab terrorists in the Somali capital Mogadishu, August 30, 2016. (Reuters)
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Despite 2016 Defeats, Shabaab Returning in Force in Somalia

Security forces stand guard on a destroyed building following a car bomb claimed by al-Shabaab terrorists in the Somali capital Mogadishu, August 30, 2016. (Reuters)
Security forces stand guard on a destroyed building following a car bomb claimed by al-Shabaab terrorists in the Somali capital Mogadishu, August 30, 2016. (Reuters)

Several factors in 2016 led to a sharp drop in the terrorist activity of Somalia’s al-Shabaab group. This can be credited to regional and international efforts that saw the organization lose the majority of the land it had seized since 2009. Internal disputes within the Shabaab and the defection of some of its members to ISIS also led to its weakness.

The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) demonstrated an ability to confront the group, especially after it received training and weapons from the United States, Britain and Europe. US airstrikes have also managed to target senior members of the organization.

Despite these losses however, the Shabaab, led by Ahmed Diriye Abou Obeida, have managed to adjust to the new reality and the current balance of power on the ground. It therefore still remains a threat to the Somali government and the fragile stability in each of Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia. In addition, the Shabaab has started to adopt a new approach, guerrilla warfare, against the African Union and Somali government. A new intelligence body was formed in order to confront this strategy.

As part of its new policies, the Somali terrorist group is being more selective in choosing its targets. The second half of 2017 is witnessing a qualitative shift in the nature of the confrontation that the group is adopting. It is being more accurate in the nature of its targets and the timing of its attacks.

This was demonstrated in the October 15, 2017, Mogadishu attack that left 250 people dead in the worst such assault since 2007.

As part of its policy of centralized strikes and keeping the Somali capital under the “hell” of terrorism, the Shabaab launched an attack against the Nasa-Hablod 2 Hotel on October 28 that left 70 people dead, including some former lawmakers, a senior police officer, state officials and foreign figures. The police announced that the assault was carried out by a suicide bomber and gunmen, who attacked the hotel that is frequented by politicians due to its proximity to the presidential palace.

On October 14, the Shabaab carried out two bombings in Mogadishu, killing some 22 people and injuring several others.

The weak Somali government took urgent measures to confront this threat. On October 29, it sacked the chief of police and head of the national intelligence agency. This showed the extent in which the Shabaab were able to influence the internal Somali scene and the government’s security policy.

Given the above, one can conclude that the victories that the terrorist organization achieved recently are not connected only to destabilizing security and stability, but to the bitter defeats suffered by the army. This in turn created a real political crisis and problems for the government.

The confusion on the internal scene was demonstrated when the Shabaab managed to kill some 100 Somali special forces in an attack on the town of Breiry, which lies 60 kms west of Mogadishu. The attack led to the resignation of Defense Minister Abdirashid Abdullahi Mohamed and Chief of Staff General Ahmed Mohamed Jimale Irfid.

Moreover, and as part of its resurgence in Somalia, the Shabaab seized on August 4 the town of Lego, which lies 130 kms northwest of Mogadishu. This is a region that witnessed almost weekly bloody battles before it was captured by the terrorists, who killed 12 peacekeepers during very fierce confrontations.

The renewed Shabaab push prompted some 50 lawmakers last week to sign a petition, demanding the resignation of President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmajo. The government has meanwhile turned to bolstering regional and international cooperation to confront the terror group. Farmajo recently paid visits to each of Uganda, Ethiopia and Djibouti to that end.

Somali media on Thursday reported that Ethiopia had deployed more forces, some 1,000 heavily armed soldiers, in the Gedo province. A Somali official in the region said that the deployment was part of Somali-Ethiopian cooperation and a precursor to an imminent attack against Shabaab positions there.

Despite these official Somali efforts and international support, especially American strikes, we can say that the Shabaab has regained much of its power. Its long experience has enabled it to leave battles with African peacekeepers with lesser casualties.

Despite the smaller geographic area that the terror group has been controlling since 2016 and the return of many displaced Somalis back to their homes, divisions between clans, tribes and neighboring countries remain. The poor military armament and equipment of the African peacekeepers also works in the terrorists’ favor. These are all factors that the Shabaab is exploiting to transform Somalia into a real African base for Ayman al-Zawahiri’s organization. This will enable the group to recruit fighters loyal to ISIS.

The new Shabaab policy does not pose a threat to Somalia alone, but it goes beyond the borders to target the stability of the Horn of Africa, Yemen and the Arab Gulf. This therefore demands that regional and international forces offer more support to the Somali government and ensure their own trade and economic interests in the region.

*Khaled Yamout is a visiting political science professor at Mohammed V University in Rabat.



Crops Wither in Sudan as Power Cuts Cripple Irrigation

FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa
FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa
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Crops Wither in Sudan as Power Cuts Cripple Irrigation

FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa
FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa

Hatem Abdelhamid stands amid his once-thriving date palms in northern Sudan, helpless as a prolonged war-driven power outage cripples irrigation, causing devastating crop losses and deepening the country's food crisis.

"I've lost 70 to 75 percent of my crops this year," he said, surveying the dying palms in Tanqasi, a village on the Nile in Sudan's Northern State.

"I'm trying really hard to keep the rest of the crops alive," he told AFP.

Sudan's agricultural sector -- already battered by a two-year conflict and economic crisis -- is now facing another crushing blow from the nationwide power outages.

Since the war between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces began in April 2023, state-run power plants have been repeatedly targeted, suffering severe damage and ultimately leaving farms without water.

Like most Sudanese farms, Abdelhamid's depends on electric-powered irrigation -- but the system has been down "for over two months" due to the blackouts.

Sudan had barely recovered from the devastating 1985 drought and famine when war erupted again in 2023, delivering a fresh blow to the country's agriculture.

Agriculture remains the main source of food and income for 80 percent of the population, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Now in its third year, the conflict has plunged more than half the population into acute food insecurity, with famine already taking hold in at least five areas and millions more at risk across conflict-hit regions in the west, center and south.

The war has also devastated infrastructure, killed tens of thousands of people, and displaced 13 million.

A 2024 joint study by the United Nations Development Programme and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) found that nearly a third of rural households have lost irrigation and water access since the war began.

Without electricity to power his irrigation system, Abdelhamid -- like thousands of farmers across the country -- was forced to rely on diesel-powered pumps.

But with fuel scarce and prices now more than 20 times higher than before the war, even that option is out of reach for many.

"I used to spend 10,000 Sudanese pounds (about four euros according to the black market rate) for irrigation each time," said another farmer, Abdelhalim Ahmed.

"Now it costs me 150,000 pounds (around 60 euros) because there is no electricity," he told AFP.

Ahmed said he has lost three consecutive harvests -- including crops like oranges, onions, tomatoes and dates.

With seeds, fertilizers and fuel now barely available, many farmers say they won't be able to replant for the next cycle.

In April, the FAO warned that "below average rainfall" and ongoing instability were closing the window to prevent further deterioration.

A June study by IFPRI also projected Sudan's overall economic output could shrink by as much as 42 percent if the war continues, with the agricultural sector contracting by more than a third.

"Our analysis shows massive income losses across all households and a sharp rise in poverty, especially in rural areas and among women," said Khalid Siddig, a senior research fellow at IFPRI.