Sisi Says Egypt Is Keen on Integration with Saudi Arabia in ‘Neom’

Visitors watch a 3D presentation during an exhibition on 'Neom', a new business and industrial city, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 25, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser/Files
Visitors watch a 3D presentation during an exhibition on 'Neom', a new business and industrial city, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 25, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser/Files
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Sisi Says Egypt Is Keen on Integration with Saudi Arabia in ‘Neom’

Visitors watch a 3D presentation during an exhibition on 'Neom', a new business and industrial city, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 25, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser/Files
Visitors watch a 3D presentation during an exhibition on 'Neom', a new business and industrial city, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 25, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser/Files

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi made the first high-level remark affirming Cairo’s full support for integration with Saudi Arabia in “Neom”.

Neom is a planned transnational city and economic zone to be constructed in the border region of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt (via a proposed bridge across the Gulf of Aqaba).

The megacity was announced by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia October 24, 2017.

He said it will operate independently from the “existing governmental framework” with its own tax and labor laws and an autonomous judicial system.

Speaking at a meeting with a number of Egyptian and foreign media representatives on the sidelines of the World Youth Forum held in Sharm El-Sheikh, South Sinai, Sisi said that Cairo "is keen to integrate with Saudi Arabia in projects that benefit all."

The President stressed that work is being done on "equipping other projects with Saudi Arabia" and referred to the ongoing developing of a 6-lane road network connecting Port Said to the Gulf of Suez, and Sharm el-Sheikh.

When Crown Prince Mohammed announced the launching of Neom, he said it would be a "special area and a new destination located northwest of the Kingdom."

Neom joins together territory from within the Egyptian and Jordanian borders and provides a lot of development opportunities. The transitional city will also be funded with over $ 500 billion in coming years pumped by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

According to the Egyptian Ministry of Transport, the Egyptian government is paying great attention to the "National Project for the Development of the Eastern Suez Canal" and explains that the implementation of three tunnels in the Ismailia governorate to cross the Suez Canal will play an important role ".

It is also planned to establish another three tunnels south of Port Said city, at the overall cost of $ 4 billion for the six tunnels.



Arab Tourism Organization President, Omani Heritage Minister Discuss Cooperation

This picture shows a partial view of the area of Haramil in the Omani capital Muscat on September 18, 2020. (AFP)
This picture shows a partial view of the area of Haramil in the Omani capital Muscat on September 18, 2020. (AFP)
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Arab Tourism Organization President, Omani Heritage Minister Discuss Cooperation

This picture shows a partial view of the area of Haramil in the Omani capital Muscat on September 18, 2020. (AFP)
This picture shows a partial view of the area of Haramil in the Omani capital Muscat on September 18, 2020. (AFP)

Omani Minister of Heritage and Tourism Salem bin Mohammed Al-Mahrouqi received President of the Arab Tourism Organization (ATO) Bandar bin Fahd Al-Fahid and the accompanying delegation in Muscat, reported the Saudi Press Agency on Friday.

The officials discussed cooperation between the ATO and the Omani ministry.

The ATO provided an explanation of the existing and future cooperation aspects with the ministry on developing Oman’s Arab investments through the organization’s Itqan Tourism Development.

Cooperation aspects between the two sides also include the implementation of a number of events and programs.

The minister gave a presentation on Omani Sur city’s nomination to be named Arab Tourism Capital for 2024, which was submitted to the organization’s general secretariat.


EU Does Not Want to Decouple from China but Must Protect Itself, Says EU Trade Chief

 In this photograph taken on August 25, 2023, Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice President & European Commissioner for Trade of The European Union, addresses the gathering on the first day of the three-day B20 Summit in New Delhi. (AFP)
In this photograph taken on August 25, 2023, Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice President & European Commissioner for Trade of The European Union, addresses the gathering on the first day of the three-day B20 Summit in New Delhi. (AFP)
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EU Does Not Want to Decouple from China but Must Protect Itself, Says EU Trade Chief

 In this photograph taken on August 25, 2023, Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice President & European Commissioner for Trade of The European Union, addresses the gathering on the first day of the three-day B20 Summit in New Delhi. (AFP)
In this photograph taken on August 25, 2023, Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice President & European Commissioner for Trade of The European Union, addresses the gathering on the first day of the three-day B20 Summit in New Delhi. (AFP)

The European Union has no intention to decouple from China but needs to protect itself when its openness is abused, the bloc's Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said, as both sides look to cool rising tensions over geopolitics and trade.

Relations have become tense due to Beijing's ties with Moscow after Russian forces swept into Ukraine, and the EU's push to rely less on the world's second-largest economy.

The bloc posted record bilateral trade with China last year, but it is "very unbalanced", Dombrovskis said on Saturday in a speech at the annual Bund Summit conference in Shanghai, citing a trade deficit of almost 400 billion euros ($426.08 billion).

Dombrovskis, who is also the bloc's trade commissioner, is on a four-day visit to China seeking more balanced economic ties with the EU.

He arrived just over a week after the European Commission said it would investigate whether to impose punitive tariffs to protect European producers from cheaper Chinese electric vehicle imports it says are benefiting from state subsidies.

The trip is designed to renew dialogue with China after the COVID-19 pandemic with both sides looking to cool tensions over issues ranging from foreign investment, trade and geopolitics as well as Western criticism of Beijing's closer ties with Moscow following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

"Creating an open market among its members was one of the EU's founding principles. We are also committed to free and fair global trade. And ‘fair’ is the key word here," he said.

Citing the bloc's trade deficit as an example, he added "the EU also needs to protect itself in situations when its openness is abused."

"This means minimizing our strategic dependencies for a select number of strategic products," but the EU's economic strategy was focused on de-risking, not decoupling, he said.

"The EU has no intention of decoupling from China."

Litmus test

The EU blames its 400-billion-euro trade deficit partly on Chinese restrictions on European companies.

A "thousand" barriers to market access have propelled the trade deficit to its "highest in the history of mankind", EU Ambassador to China Jorge Toledo lamented at a forum in Beijing on Thursday.

The economic and trade dialogue on Monday between Dombrovskis and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, the 10th such discussion since 2008, will be a "litmus test" for the two sides, Chinese nationalist tabloid Global Times said on Thursday.

Dombrovskis told Reuters on the sidelines of the summit that "substantial technical work" preceded the EU probe into Chinese-made EVs and that they would look to engage both Chinese authorities and industry in the investigation.

"We are open for competition including for competition in the electric vehicles sector but competition has to be fair," he said. China has blasted the probe as protectionist and the Chinese Chamber of Commerce to the EU said the sector's advantage was not due to subsidies.

Asked if the EU was looking at other sectors, he added: "there are several areas where we are looking at possible trade irritants and barriers, and actually this is one of the topics I'm going to raise also with my Chinese counterparts... On one hand we must discuss how we advance our relationship, but also we need to be able to discuss if there are some issues or trade barriers to be addressed."

He declined to provide further details.

In his speech, Dombrovskis also said he believed that China faced a "challenging process of macroeconomic adjustment" but stressed that Beijing must broaden access for foreign businesses and maintain a stable business environment for fair trade relations.

He also urged China to take a stance against Russia's "tactic of weaponizing food" and use its influence in reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative which expired in July after Moscow quit.


Oman GDP Shrinks by 9.5% in Second Quarter

An Omani shopping at the souq in the city of Nizwa, about 160 kilometers southwest of the capital Muscat. (AFP)
An Omani shopping at the souq in the city of Nizwa, about 160 kilometers southwest of the capital Muscat. (AFP)
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Oman GDP Shrinks by 9.5% in Second Quarter

An Omani shopping at the souq in the city of Nizwa, about 160 kilometers southwest of the capital Muscat. (AFP)
An Omani shopping at the souq in the city of Nizwa, about 160 kilometers southwest of the capital Muscat. (AFP)

Oman's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 9.5% in the second quarter to around 10.1 billion Omani rials ($26.24 billion) by current prices, the state news agency reported on Saturday.

Omani GDP reached around 11.1 billion Omani rials in the same quarter of last year, the agency added.


Saudi Arabia Elected ASOSAI President for 2027-2030

President of the General Court of Audit Dr. Hussam bin Abdulmohsen Al-Anqari. (SPA)
President of the General Court of Audit Dr. Hussam bin Abdulmohsen Al-Anqari. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Elected ASOSAI President for 2027-2030

President of the General Court of Audit Dr. Hussam bin Abdulmohsen Al-Anqari. (SPA)
President of the General Court of Audit Dr. Hussam bin Abdulmohsen Al-Anqari. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia, represented by the General Court of Audit, was elected president of the Asian Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions (ASOSAI) for the period 2027 to 2030.

The Kingdom’s nomination was announced following a vote of the ASOSAI Governing Board during its 59th meeting in Busan city, South Korea from September 19-22.

On the occasion, President of the General Court of Audit Dr. Hussam bin Abdulmohsen Al-Anqari congratulated the Saudi leadership, saying the election was recognition of the Kingdom’s achievements and leading roles in the fields of auditing drawing public financial monitoring policies.

Established in 1978, ASOSAI is one of the Regional Groups of the International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions. It boasts 48 charter members, members, and associate members.


Saudi Economy Joins Trillion Dollar Club

AAWSAT AR
AAWSAT AR
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Saudi Economy Joins Trillion Dollar Club

AAWSAT AR
AAWSAT AR

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has achieved remarkable successes that have immeasurably contributed to improving major economic indicators and upgrading the ranking of the national economy by global institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, which said the Saudi economy was the fastest growing among the Group of Twenty (G20) member states in 2022.
A report by the Federation of Saudi Chambers, issued on the occasion of the Kingdom’s 93rd National Day, stated that the Kingdom’s gross domestic product (GDP) reached SAR 4.155 trillion, exceeding the ceiling of USD 1 trillion for the first time, thus joining the trillion-dollar club and achieving the national goal well ahead of the target date of 2025, said SPA on Friday.
According to the report, the Saudi economy achieved a growth rate of 8.7% -- the highest among the G20 member states -- spurred mainly by its production capabilities, which is reflected in the increase in the self-sufficiency rate of the Saudi economy to 81.2%, and the increase in the investment rate (the invested percentage of output) to 27.3%. Such performance led to increased confidence in the national economy and the Saudi riyal as a store of value by increasing the ratio of local currency deposits to total savings deposits from 66.5% in 2021 to 67.7% in 2022.
The Kingdom was ranked 17th in the global economy out of the world’s 64 most competitive countries. According to the Global Competitiveness Report of the International Center for Management Development (IMD), the Kingdom has ranked second in the world in terms of the growth rate of international tourists, and it ranked 51st in the Global Innovation Index. The rate of integration of the Saudi economy into the global economy increased by 63.1%.
The report indicated that the Saudi private sector will continue its strong role and performance thanks to its status as an effective partner in the comprehensive development process and in achieving the goals of the ambitious Vision 2030. The private sector’s contributions to GDP increased to SAR 1.634 trillion, or 41% of GDP, with a growth rate of 5.3%, according to the report.
The report said non-governmental investments increased to SAR 907.5 billion, with a growth rate of 32.6%, to an 87.3% contribution to the total fixed investments. The number of workers in the private sector has increased from 8.084 million in 2021 to 9.422 million in 2022, with a growth rate of 16.6%, according to the report.
Under the localization endeavor of the labor force, the number of Saudis working in the private sector has increased from 1.910 million in 2021 to 2.195 million in 2022, with a growth rate of 14.9%, which was reflected in an increase in the percentage of Saudi workers in the private sector to 58.2%.
The report highlighted the success of the Kingdom’s policies regarding diversifying the economic base and supporting Saudi exports to global markets. Exports of goods and services increased by 54.4%, and the export capacity of the Saudi economy increased from 33% to 39.3% of the GDP. The value of exports of goods and services rose to 171.9 % of the value of imports of goods and services in 2022, up from 134.5 percent the previous year.
The value of non-oil exports reached SAR 315.7 billion, with a growth rate of 13.7%, accounting for 20.5% of commodity exports, and reaching 178 countries around the world.
The report expected the Saudi economy and the private sector to continue their strong performance, citing various economic indicators, government support packages, and huge projects being implemented in various regions across the Kingdom.


Chinese Investors Briefed on Industrial, Mining Investment Opportunities in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Ibrahim Alkhorayef met with Chinese investors in Shanghai.
Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Ibrahim Alkhorayef met with Chinese investors in Shanghai.
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Chinese Investors Briefed on Industrial, Mining Investment Opportunities in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Ibrahim Alkhorayef met with Chinese investors in Shanghai.
Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Ibrahim Alkhorayef met with Chinese investors in Shanghai.

The Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Ibrahim Alkhorayef met with Chinese investors in Shanghai, where they discussed investment opportunities available in the Kingdom in mining and industry sectors.
President of the Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu Khalid Al-Salem, Vice Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources for Mining Affairs Khalid Al-Mudaifer, and leading officials of the industry and mining sectors attended the meeting, said SPA.
Interlocutors previewed the prominent investment opportunities provided by the Kingdom in the industrial and mining sectors.
The Saudi side highlighted the goals of the National Strategy for Industry and the opportunities provided in various industrial sectors.
The meeting examined the measures, initiatives and incentives provided by the ministry to create an attractive investment environment, remove obstacles for investors, and offer the required facilitations.
The Saudi officials spoke about the goals of the Saudi Vision 2030 in the mining sector and the opportunities it provides for investors worldwide in mineral exploration and investment opportunities.
The Saudi side highlighted the mining investment system in the Kingdom and the goals of the mining strategy.
Alkhorayef made the official visit to the People's Republic of China to strengthen the economic partnership in the industrial and mining sectors.
The visit also seeks to review the qualitative investment opportunities between the two countries and brief the Chinese side on the Kingdom's initiatives to enhance the strategic sectors of industry and mining.


Study: Ukraine War Expected to Have Bigger Impact on European Economies

 Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
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Study: Ukraine War Expected to Have Bigger Impact on European Economies

 Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire a M109 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 22, 2023. (Reuters)

The war in Ukraine has reduced European economic growth and "considerably" pushed up inflation across the continent, the Swiss National Bank said in a study published on Friday, with worse effects still to come.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Europe has seen a surge in energy prices, financial market turmoil and a sharp contraction in the economies of both Russia and Ukraine, the report said.

Examining the war's economic impact on Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Switzerland, the study said output would have been between 0.1% and 0.7% higher in the fourth quarter of 2022 if Russia had not invaded Ukraine.

Consumer prices in each of the countries would have been between 0.2% and 0.4% lower, said the working paper, which aims to stimulate discussion and is not necessarily the viewpoint of the SNB.

"The negative consequences of the war are likely to be far greater in the medium-to-long term, especially with regard to the real economy," the study said.

"In one to two years, this effect is likely to be approximately twice as large," it added.

Germany was the worst affected, the study said. Its GDP would have been 0.7% higher and inflation would have been 0.4% lower in the fourth quarter of 2022 if Russia had neither attacked nor threatened Ukraine, the study said.

Britain was also hard hit, with economic output reduced by 0.7% and inflation increased by 0.2%.

France would have seen inflation 0.3% lower and GDP 0.1% higher without the conflict, while Italian inflation would have been 0.2% lower and GDP 0.3% higher.

Swiss GDP would have been 0.3% higher and inflation 0.4% lower without the war, the study added.

However, the authors said their estimates tended towards the low side because they "probably" underestimated food price inflation and looked at oil prices rather than gas prices.

The impact of refugees and increased military spending may be more than in recent conflicts, they added.


Lucid Electric Vehicles to be Manufactured in KAEC

The Special Economic Cities and Zones Authority hands Lucid the license to operate in Saudi Arabia.
The Special Economic Cities and Zones Authority hands Lucid the license to operate in Saudi Arabia.
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Lucid Electric Vehicles to be Manufactured in KAEC

The Special Economic Cities and Zones Authority hands Lucid the license to operate in Saudi Arabia.
The Special Economic Cities and Zones Authority hands Lucid the license to operate in Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi Economic Cities and Special Zones Authority (ECZA) granted Lucid Motors, which specializes in electric cars, the operating license for its manufacturing unit, which was established in the King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC) in Rabigh, west of the Kingdom.

ECZA Secretary General Nabil Khoja said that the establishment of a world-class electric car manufacturing unit in a short time confirms the efficiency and capabilities of the economic zone facilities in the Kingdom.

Speaking during a ceremony at the authority’s headquarters in King Abdullah Economic City, Khoja said that the recent move was based on a government partnership and cooperation with the Economic Cities Authority, stressing the excellence of the business environment in Saudi Arabia and the state’s commitment to supporting investors.

“Today we are making a step towards the future of the transportation sector in the Kingdom, thus contributing to reducing carbon emissions, and promoting clean and sustainable mobility,” he stated, describing the achievement as important for the state and consistent with its commitment to diversifying the resources of the national economy.

For his part, Vice President of Lucid and Managing Director of the Middle East Region, Faisal Sultan, said that the factory would pave the way and set standards for the automobile industry, and provide the local market with advanced electric vehicles assembled in the Kingdom.

Sultan revealed the company’s aspirations to attract, train and employ new talents in the field of the automotive industry.

In turn, Cyril Piaia, Chief Executive Officer at EMAAR Economic City, pointed to the importance of the presence of Lucid, the world’s leading company in the development and production of electric vehicles, in the King Abdullah Economic City. He said it was proof of the quality of the infrastructure and the strategic location that connects Saudi Arabia to all countries of the world.

He added that Lucid will play a major role in achieving the goal of the region to become a destination for the automotive industry and will reflect positively on the local economy by creating job opportunities, promoting technical progress, and attracting new investments to King Abdullah Economic City.

The ceremony featured a short visual presentation produced by Lucid, highlighting its main projects, innovations and contribution to the electric car industry.

The project started in August 2022, when the Kingdom launched a plan to diversify the national automotive sector, by granting building permits for the Lucid factory in the KAEC special economic zone. The move underlined the government’s firm commitment to diversifying its economy and achieving Vision 2030, which seeks to convert 30 percent of the vehicles in Riyadh into electric cars.

Lucid’s advanced facility stretches over an area exceeding 1.35 million square meters, and occupies about 31 percent of the total area allocated to the automotive industry in the KAEC Special Economic Zone.

The Saudi Economic Cities and Special Zones Authority provides all government services to investors, residents, workers and visitors in cities and special economic zones through the Integrated Government Services Center.

It also contributes to achieving the goals of Vision 2030, by developing and implementing innovative business models in partnership with the private sector, and providing government support and empowerment through strategic initiatives and projects that enhance the competitiveness and attractiveness of the investment environment in cities and special economic zones and generate job opportunities.


Int’l Maritime Assembly Highlights Saudi, Gulf Potential

A session from the Saudi Maritime Congress (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A session from the Saudi Maritime Congress (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Int’l Maritime Assembly Highlights Saudi, Gulf Potential

A session from the Saudi Maritime Congress (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A session from the Saudi Maritime Congress (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The international maritime assembly held in Dammam, Saudi Arabia, over the course of two days, shed light on the immense potential possessed by the maritime shipping and logistics sectors in the Kingdom and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

The “Saudi Maritime Congress,” in its fourth edition, concluded its events on Thursday with the signing of two memoranda of understanding between national and international institutions.

The first MoU was signed between the Saudi-listed National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (Bahri) and SAIL, a Saudi Investment Recycling Company (SIRC) subsidiary.

The memorandum of understanding aims to foster cooperation in sustainable maritime shipping, environmental protection, and the enhancement of sustainability practices within the maritime industry.

This collaboration between the two institutions embodies their shared vision to transform the maritime shipping sector into a more sustainable and environmentally friendly industry.

The second MoU was signed between the Saudi Ports Authority (MAWANI) and SIRC to advance maritime sustainability in the Kingdom.
This collaboration, focused on enhancing environmentally responsible practices in the maritime sector, represents a significant milestone in advancing sustainable development and supporting the goals of Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030.”

The agreement underscores the commitment of both parties to environmental protection and the promotion of resource efficiency and circular economy principles within the maritime sector.

Abdullah Bin Damithan, CEO & Managing Director of DP World, told Asharq Al-Awsat that investments in the Islamic Port of Jeddah (located in the western part of the Kingdom) have reached approximately $800 million over a 30-year period, with expectations for the project’s completion in the coming year.

The agreement, which was signed in June of the previous year, entails the establishment of a logistics zone spanning 415,000 square meters, capable of accommodating 250,000 standard containers and featuring warehouses covering 100,000 square meters.

This zone will provide advanced and eco-friendly electronic services.


S&P: Saudi Women’s Workforce Boosts Growth Prospects

Female workforce participation rate in Saudi Arabia reached approximately 36% in 2022. (SPA)
Female workforce participation rate in Saudi Arabia reached approximately 36% in 2022. (SPA)
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S&P: Saudi Women’s Workforce Boosts Growth Prospects

Female workforce participation rate in Saudi Arabia reached approximately 36% in 2022. (SPA)
Female workforce participation rate in Saudi Arabia reached approximately 36% in 2022. (SPA)

The increasing participation of women in Saudi Arabia’s workforce is expected to boost the country’s economy by $39 billion, or 3.5%, by 2032, if the current rate of growth continues, according to S&P Global Ratings.

The agency noted in a report that labor market reforms had led to a rise in female workforce participation in the Kingdom to approximately 36 % in 2022, compared to 19 % in 2016.

“We calculate that increases in overall participation rate of just 1 percentage point per year (ppt) over the next 10 years would boost the country’s annual real GDP [gross domestic product] growth by an average of 0.3 ppt, to 2.4% per annum (versus 2.1%), assuming that labor force productivity growth for the next 10 years will look the same as the last 20 years,” S&P research analysts said in the report.

The increase in female representation in the labor force was spurred by expanding childcare and transport services, which added to new job opportunities in developing sectors such as tourism, leading to more women joining the labor market.

The agency also attributed the increase in women’s workforce participation to a higher level of education, in addition to several measures taken by the Saudi government.

Other measures introduced by Saudi Arabia to reduce the impediments to women joining the labor force include allowing them to drive, increasing remote and hybrid work arrangements, dropping the need for a male guardian to consent to a woman starting a business, and increasing the number of female jobs in the military, S&P said.

The report added that the key to economic growth in the Kingdom over the next decade lies in improving workforce productivity.

In order to replicate the success seen in East Asia, the Kingdom must work on enhancing workforce productivity through increased capital investment and human capital, said S&P.

The agency also noted that if policy reforms under Vision 2030 are successful, sustainable growth rates of 4-5% could be achieved, compared to the historical productivity-based growth rates of 2-3%.