Riyadh Syrian Opposition Meeting Addresses Assad Hurdle, Iranian Meddling

Representatives of the Syrian opposition and independent figures continued on Tuesday their consultations ahead of the Riyadh-hosted Syrian opposition meeting that got underway on Wednesday.

The consultations over the past two days focused on “rejecting regional and international meddling, especially Iran’s role in destabilizing the security and stability of the region.” They also addressed the future of regime leader Bashar Assad and his role in the transition process.

The conference will conclude on Friday with the release of a political vision of Syria and the formation of an opposition delegation that will participate in the Geneva negotiations that are scheduled to kick off on November 28.

Opposition sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that discussions between members of the preparatory committee tackled the political vision of “the Syrian revolution and opposition forces.”

The forces, which come from all components of Syrian society, will include representatives of the opposition, independent and revolutionary factions, as well as military revolt forces, civil society organizations and local councils.

The sources said that the participants stressed the importance of the political solution and that it be based on the 2012 Geneva statement and resolutions 2118 and 2254. This is the solution that will bring justice to the victims of oppression and war crimes, they added.

It will also establish a new nation for the Syrians that will ensure their liberties, respect their dignity and unite them against the forces of oppression, extremism and terrorism.

The sources predicted that the gatherers will voice their commitment to the unity of Syrian territory and sovereignty of their nation and therefore no part of the country should be partitioned.

They voiced their commitment to a Syria that is comprised of various minorities and cultures, whose rights are protected by the constitution. The culture and language of these minorities - Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, Assyrians Syriacs and others – represent the history of Syria and its civilization.

The Kurdish cause is part of the Syrian national cause and all discriminatory policies should be abolished, they demanded.

The sources reiterated the conclusions of the 2015 expanded Syrian opposition conference that was held in Riyadh and the participants suggested that “Syria be a democratic state that is built on a decentralized administration.” They also urged that Syrian state institutions be preserved and its military and security agencies be restructured, rejecting all formed of extremism and terrorism.

This stance is similar to the political solution document of principles that was proposed by United Nations special envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura and the government and opposition delegations during previous Geneva negotiations rounds.

Furthermore, the sources said that the participants at the Riyadh meeting proposed the rejection of Iranian interference in the region and its attempts to create demographic change there and spread terrorism, including state terrorism and the deployment of foreign and sectarian militias.

They demanded that the legitimate Syrian state institutions, which are chosen by the Syrian people in transparent elections, have the exclusive right on the possession of arms in the country.

In a reference to Iran-backed militias, they also renewed their rejection of the presence of all foreign fighters on Syria territory.

The political solution and Assad hurdle

In what was seen as compliance with last week’s statements by US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the political solution, the participants stressed that the solution to the Syria crisis is political and based on international resolutions. International guarantees should be provided to ensure that these resolutions are implemented.

The political transition should include Syrian officials and the international community, they added in reference to the Geneva statement and resolution 2254.

Trump and Putin had emphasized the importance of carrying out constitutional reform to pave the way for elections.

The Syrian sources said that the Riyadh meeting participants proposed that the goal of the political settlement should be the establishment of state that is based on national unity that would enable the people to draft their constitution without foreign interference. They would also be able to chose their leaders through free and transparent UN-supervised elections that would see the participation of Syrians inside and outside the country. The polls should be held in a manner that ensures their rights in holding officials accountable for their actions.

This will thereby achieve a radical political transition that excludes any individual who is proven to have committed war crimes against civilians.

The Americans and Russians agreed that the Geneva negotiations should be held without any preconditions.

As for Assad’s fate, the sources said that the Riyadh consultations proposed that unconditional direct negotiations mean that all issues should be present at the negotiation table. No side therefore has the right to impose preconditions and the demand to implement international resolutions is not a precondition. This includes discussions on the form of the system of rule in Syria and its regime, privileges and responsibilities. The position of the presidency, government and others will be up for discussion.

The Geneva statement addresses the establishment of a transition authority that can pave the way for a neutral environment that can ensure the launch of the political process. It is fundamental to make sure that the transition is implemented in a manner that guarantees the safety of all in stable and calm circumstances.

One of the opposition figures at the Riyadh conference said that achieving these two points cannot take place without Assad’s departure at the beginning of the transition period.

European countries and the US had proposed that resolving the Assad “obstacle” could take place during the transition period and that negotiations start without preconditions.

The gatherers at the Riyadh meeting are expected to agree on the formation of a united team that would carry out negotiations with regime representatives on condition that none of its members will be part of the transition authority or any of the institutions that will be formed from it.

Some of the proposals include forming the delegation of 15 negotiators and 15 consultants that represent political and independent figures.

The sources said that there has been a confirmation of the need for the UN, through its representative, to take the immediate necessary measures to activate the political process and redirect the course of the Geneva negotiations. This can take place through calling for direct negotiations without any preconditions between the revolution and opposition delegation and the regime delegation. An agenda should be put in place based on the Geneva statement and resolutions 2118 and 2254 and the sponsorship of the UN.

The Riyadh participants stressed the need to implement the articles of Security Council resolutions, including releasing prisoners, ending the siege against certain areas, granting passage to humanitarian convoys and allowing refugees and the displaced to return to their homes. “De-escalation” zones agreements should be effectively implemented and violations by the regime and its allies should cease.

The reconstruction of Syria has been linked to the completion of the political agreement and the formation of a ruling transition authority. Some $220 billion are needed to rebuild the country and the UN and international community should be accepted as supervisors of the ceasefire and peacekeeping process.

Sitting in the Oval Office behind the iconic Resolute desk in 2022, an animated President Joe Biden described the challenge of leading a psychologically traumatized nation.

The United States had endured a life-altering pandemic. There was a jarring burst of inflation and now global conflict with Russia invading Ukraine, as well as the persistent threat to democracy he felt Donald Trump posed.

How could Biden possibly heal that collective trauma?

“Be confident,” he said emphatically in an interview with The Associated Press. “Be confident. Because I am confident.”

But in the ensuing two years, the confidence Biden hoped to instill steadily waned. And when the 81-year-old Democratic president showed his age in a disastrous debate in June against Trump, he lost the benefit of the doubt as well. That triggered a series of events that led him Sunday to step down as his party's nominee for the November's election.

Democrats, who had been united in their resolve to prevent another Trump term, suddenly fractured. And Republicans, beset by chaos in Congress and the former president’s criminal conviction, improbably coalesced in defiant unity.

Biden never figured out how to inspire the world’s most powerful country to believe in itself, let alone in him.

He lost the confidence of supporters in the 90-minute debate with Trump, even if pride initially prompted him to override the fears of lawmakers, party elders and donors who were nudging him to drop out. Then Trump survived an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania and, as if on cue, pumped his fist in strength. Biden, while campaigning in Las Vegas, tested positive for the coronavirus Wednesday and retreated to his Delaware beach home to recover.

The events over the course of three weeks led to an exit Biden never wanted, but one that Democrats felt they needed to maximize their chance of winning in November’s elections.

Biden seems to have badly misread the breadth of his support. While many Democrats had deep admiration for the president personally, they did not have the same affection for him politically.

Rice University historian Douglas Brinkley said Biden arrived as a reprieve from a nation exhausted by Trump and the pandemic, reported The Associated Press.

“He was a perfect person for that moment,” said Brinkley, noting Biden proved in era of polarization that bipartisan lawmaking was still possible.

Yet, there was never a “Joe Biden Democrat” like there was a “Reagan Republican.” He did not have adoring, movement-style followers as did Barack Obama or John F. Kennedy. He was not a generational candidate like Bill Clinton. The only barrier-breaking dimension to his election was the fact that he was the oldest person ever elected president.

His first run for the White House, in the 1988 cycle, ended with self-inflicted wounds stemming from plagiarism, and he didn’t make it to the first nominating contest. In 2008, he dropped out after the Iowa caucuses, where he won less than 1% of the vote.

In 2016, Obama counseled his vice president not to run. A Biden victory in 2020 seemed implausible, when he finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire before a dramatic rebound in South Carolina that propelled him to the nomination and the White House.

David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to Obama who also worked closely with Biden, said that history would treat Biden kinder than voters had, not just because of his legislative achievements but because in 2020 he defeated Trump.

“His legacy is significant beyond all his many accomplishments,” Axelrod said. “He will always be the man who stepped up and defeated a president who placed himself above our democracy."

But Biden could not avoid his age. And when he showed frailty in his steps and his speech, there was no foundation of supporters that could stand by him to stop calls for him to step aside.

It was a humbling end to a half-century career in politics, yet hardly reflective of the full legacy of his time in the White House.

In March of 2021, Biden launched $1.9 trillion in pandemic aid, creating a series of new programs that temporarily halved child poverty, halted evictions and contributed to the addition of 15.7 million jobs. But inflation began to rise shortly thereafter as Biden’s approval rating as measured by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research fell from 61% to 39% as of June.

He followed up with a series of executive actions to unsnarl global supply chains and a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package that not only replaced aging infrastructure but improved internet access and prepared communities to withstand the damages from climate change.

In 2022, Biden and his fellow Democrats followed up with two measures that reinvigorated the future of US manufacturing.

The CHIPS and Science Act provided $52 billion to build factories and create institutions to make computer chips domestically, ensuring that the US would have access to the most advanced semiconductors needed to power economic growth and maintain national security. There was also the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided incentives to shift away from fossil fuels and enabled Medicare to negotiate drug prices.

Biden also sought to compete more aggressively with China, rebuild alliances such as NATO and completed the US withdrawal from Afghanistan that resulted in the death of 13 US service members.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 worsened inflation as Trump and other Republicans questioned the value of military aid to the Ukrainians.

Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack in Israel sparked a war that showed divisions within the Democratic party about whether the United States should continue to support Israel as tens of thousands of Palestinians died in months of counterattacks. The president was also criticized over illegal border crossings at the southern border with Mexico.

Yet it was the size of the stakes and the fear of a Biden loss that prevailed, resulting in a bet by Democrats that the tasks he began could best be completed by a younger generation.

“History will be kinder to him than voters were at the end,” Axelrod said.

Riyadh Syrian Opposition Meeting Addresses Assad Hurdle, Iranian Meddling