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Germany Expands GSG 9 Unit As Dozens Return from Syria, Iraq

GSG 9 Members (Asharq Al-Awsat)
GSG 9 Members (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Germany Expands GSG 9 Unit As Dozens Return from Syria, Iraq

GSG 9 Members (Asharq Al-Awsat)
GSG 9 Members (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Germany's Ministry of Interior is expanding its anti-terrorism unit GSG 9 and installing a second base for the special squad in Berlin.

Germany's elite police squad GSG 9 deals with terrorist attacks amid the ongoing terrorist threats in the capital.

GSG 9 commander Jerome Fuchs said that expanding the unit will be about around a third of its current strength. He told Berlin public broadcaster RBB on Monday, that finding the right personnel would be a "big challenge," and that "fitness, confidence, and teamwork" were the particular assets he prized most.

According to Fuchs, the GSG 9 is called out on around 50 missions every year.

Fuchs added that the decision to create a second base had been made because of an ongoing terrorist threat in Germany, especially Berlin.

"If you look at comparable terrorist situations across Europe, then it was often capital cities that were affected," Fuchs told the station, adding: "It is essential that we are better prepared in the capital. Our aim is clear: GSG 9 needs to be capable of quicker reactions in the capital."

While there has been no final decision on where the base in Berlin is to be built, Fuchs said it would most likely be in Spandau, northwestern the capital.

The GSG 9 currently is based in St Augustine near the former West German capital, Bonn.

The GSG 9 was created in 1972 and is best known for storming the Landshut in 1977. The exact number of GSG 9's members is not determined, however, its founder Ulrich Wegener, who died recently, stated that its members are estimated to be 400.

Meanwhile, the interior ministries of German states estimated the return of some 200 German ISIS members from fighting zones in Syria and Iraq to Germany. In response to inquiries by Der Spiegel and Bavaria Radio, the ministry stated that dozens of returnees are at large because of insufficient evidence against them.

The ministries reiterated that investigations with returnees are conducted, but only a small number of suspects are in prison because there is no clear evidence of their involvement in the fighting and crimes committed there.

In Bavaria, known for its strict sentences, only two of the 22 returnees from combat zones in Syria and Iraq have been convicted. Two members had been confirmed to belong to a terrorist group affiliated with al-Qaeda terrorist organization. A third person is under arrest on suspicion of belonging to a terrorist organization. The rest so far are free, but are "under strict surveillance," according to the ministry.

In Hamburg, 25 terrorism suspects returned from ISIS areas of the 80 individuals who had joined from those areas. The situation in Bavaria is not that different from Hamburg, because the public prosecution arrested only one person from these returnees.

Lower Saxony’s Interior Ministry responded says that the number of detainees could be counted on the fingers of one hand, despite the fact that one-third of the 80 participants have returned.

As for Hesse, the ministry indicated that 35 individuals returned from combat zones in Syria and Iraq, with no evidence against half of them being involved in combat operations there.

According to Der Spiegel, some states did not respond, while others do not have accurate statistics on the number of returnees and detainees. The magazine estimates that many returnees do not want to disclose information that could condemn others fearing that this information will be used against them by states interior ministries.

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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)

On 24 February 2022, in a televised speech heralding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin issued what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries should they interfere.

“Russia will respond immediately,” he said, “and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.”

Then on 27 February 2022, Putin ordered Russia to move nuclear forces to a “special mode of combat duty’, which has a significant meaning in terms of the protocols to launch nuclear weapons from Russia.”

Dr. Patricia Lewis, director of the International Security program at Chatham House, wrote in a report that according to Russian nuclear weapons experts, Russia’s command and control system cannot transmit launch orders in peacetime, so increasing the status to “combat” allows a launch order to go through and be put into effect.

She said Putin made stronger nuclear threats in September 2022, following months of violent conflict and gains made by a Ukrainian counterattack.

“He indicated a stretch in Russian nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use from an existential threat to Russia to a threat to its territorial integrity,” Lewis wrote.

In November 2022, according to much later reports, the US and allies detected manoeuvres that suggested Russian nuclear forces were being mobilized.

Lewis said that after a flurry of diplomatic activity, China’s President Xi Jinping stepped in to calm the situation and speak against the use of nuclear weapons.

In September 2024, Putin announced an update of the 2020 Russian nuclear doctrine. The update was published on 19 November 2024 and formally reduced the threshold for nuclear weapons use.

According to Lewis, the 2020 doctrine said that Russia could use nuclear weapons “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”

On 21 November 2024, Russia attacked Dnipro in Ukraine using a new ballistic missile for the first time.

She said Putin announced the missile as the ‘Oreshnik’, which is understood to be a nuclear-capable, intermediate-range ballistic missile which has a theoretical range of below 5,500km.

Lewis added that Russia has fired conventionally armed nuclear-capable missiles at Ukraine throughout the war, but the Oreshnik is much faster and harder to defend against, and suggests an escalatory intent by Russia.

Nuclear Response During Cold War

In her report, Lewis said that nuclear weapons deterrence was developed in the Cold War primarily on the basis of what was called ‘mutually assured destruction’ (MAD).

The idea behind MAD is that the horror and destruction from nuclear weapons is enough to deter aggressive action and war, she added.

But the application of deterrence theory to post-cold war realities is far more complicated in the era of cyberattacks and AI, which could interfere with the command and control of nuclear weapons.

In light of these risks, presidents Biden and Xi issued a joint statement from the 2024 G20 summit affirming the need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons.

The US and Russia exchange information on their strategic, long-range nuclear missiles under the New START agreement – a treaty to reduce and monitor nuclear weapons between the two countries which is set to expire in February 2026.

But, Lewis said, with the US decision to exit the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, there are no longer any agreements between the US and Russia regulating the number or the deployment of ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km.

She said short-range nuclear weapons were withdrawn and put in storage as a result of the 1991 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives but are not subject to any legal restraints.

The 10th NPT Review Conference was held in 2022 in New York. The issue of nuclear weapons threats and the targeting of nuclear power stations in Ukraine were central to the debate.

Lewis noted that a document was carefully crafted to finely balance concerns about the three pillars of the treaty – non-proliferation, nuclear disarmament and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. But Russia withdrew its agreement on the last day of the conference, scuppering progress.

“It was believed that if Russia were to use nuclear weapons it would likely be in Ukraine, using short range, lower yield ‘battlefield’ nuclear weapons,” she said, adding that Russia is thought to have more than 1,000 in reserve.

“These would have to be taken from storage and either connected to missiles, placed in bombers, or as shell in artillery,” Lewis wrote.

Increasingly the rhetoric from Russia suggests nuclear threats are a more direct threat to NATO – not only Ukraine – and could refer to longer range, higher yield nuclear weapons.

For example in his 21 September 2022 speech, Putin accused NATO states of nuclear blackmail, referring to alleged “statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.”

Putin added: “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.”

There have been no expressed nuclear weapons threats from NATO states.

NATO does rely on nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence and has recently committed to significantly strengthen its longer-term deterrence and defence posture in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The current UK Labor government has repeatedly reiterated its commitment to British nuclear weapons – including before the July 2024 election, according to Lewis.

Therefore, she said, any movement to ready and deploy Russian nuclear weapons would be seen and monitored by US and others’ satellites, which can see through cloud cover and at night – as indeed appears to have happened in late 2022.

Lewis concluded that depending on other intelligence and analysis – and the failure of all diplomatic attempts to dissuade Russia – NATO countries may decide to intervene to prevent launch by bombing storage sites and missile deployment sites in advance.