ISIS Announces Virtual War against West, Says US Report

The aftermath of the 2016 terrorist attack in Nice, France in 2016. (AFP)
The aftermath of the 2016 terrorist attack in Nice, France in 2016. (AFP)
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ISIS Announces Virtual War against West, Says US Report

The aftermath of the 2016 terrorist attack in Nice, France in 2016. (AFP)
The aftermath of the 2016 terrorist attack in Nice, France in 2016. (AFP)

The ISIS terrorist group has declared a “virtual war” against western countries and interests after losing its stronghold of Raqqa in Syria in 2017, said a US report on Tuesday.

American experts said that the internet war will harm western countries because ISIS will be able to recruit members for operations in these countries and not in the Middle East.

“ISIS is now showing the first signs of a regrouping media operation,” said SITE Intelligence Group Executive Director Rita Katz. “The group suffered major setbacks by coalition and (Syrian) regime attacks, but is now clearly taking major steps to reassemble its propaganda operation, which is among its most dangerous weapons.”

At the end of 2017, the group released a photograph of a man wearing a scarf, showing the ISIS logo, with New York City’s Central Park in the background. The photo’s caption read: “We are in your home.”

Later the group released a video on its internet channels on terrorist operations it had carried out. In one of the videos, a narrator says: “It is time to harvest the heads.”

The SITE report, released by the Washington Post on Monday, said that ISIS’ propaganda content “has changed significantly since the loss of Raqqa, formerly home to the group’s official media division and production facilities.”

“Gone are the glossy ISIS magazines and slick videos extolling the virtues of life under militant extremist rule. In their place is a steady stream of incitements, nearly all of them aimed at offering encouragement and detailed instructions for carrying out terrorist attacks,” it added.

Some are amateurish and appear to originate not from studios or official spokesmen, but from bloggers and other volunteers who often are only loosely affiliated with ISIS.

Last week, ISIS’ Amaq News Agency issued its first English-language communiques since mid-September, just before the fall of Raqqa. The first weeks of 2018 have also seen a sharp rise in traffic on pro-ISIS social media accounts compared with previous months, said the SITE report.

The newest propaganda campaign illustrates the difficulties faced by counter-terrorism officials in seeking to stop extremists from connecting with would-be terrorists in the US and throughout the West.

Even after the destruction of ISIS’ stronghold and the successful blocking — with help from private companies — of hundreds of the group’s social media accounts, the terrorists and their supporters continue to find ways to get their messages out, analysts said.

“The depletion of ISIS on the battlefield has not yet translated into the degradation of ISIS in the online space,” said Tara Maller, a former CIA military analyst and senior policy adviser for the Counter Extremism Project, a nonpartisan group that promotes policies to block extremist content online.

“What we see is a continuing effort to engage online and an increased effort to inspire people to carry out lone-wolf attacks.”

US officials and analysts have been watching closely to see how the collapse of ISIS’ “caliphate” would affect the group’s propaganda machine, the driving force behind its rise to global prominence. Beginning in Syria in 2013, the group’s leaders spent millions of dollars creating a nimble, technically savvy media operation with a heavy social media presence, reported the Washington Post.

The analysis by SITE showed that websites affiliated with ISIS put out a total of 907 communiques, reports and videos between November and December 2016. During the same period this past year, the group and its supporters managed only 211.

An analysis published on January 7 by the national security blog Lawfare cited an overall drop in content of about 90 percent from ISIS’ high-water mark in 2015.

“This is not just a media decline — it is a full-fledged collapse,” the report’s authors, counter-terrorism researchers Charlie Winter and Jade Parker, write in the blog.

But volunteers have stepped up to fill the gap, analysts said.

The broader web of extremist commentators and videographers — a network that was encouraged and facilitated by ISIS in its heyday — was designed to continue functioning even if the mother branch was completely shut down.



What to Know About Bunker-Buster Bombs and Iran’s Fordo Nuclear Facility

 In this photo released by the US Air Force on May 2, 2023, airmen look at a GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri.(US Air Force via AP, File)
In this photo released by the US Air Force on May 2, 2023, airmen look at a GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri.(US Air Force via AP, File)
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What to Know About Bunker-Buster Bombs and Iran’s Fordo Nuclear Facility

 In this photo released by the US Air Force on May 2, 2023, airmen look at a GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri.(US Air Force via AP, File)
In this photo released by the US Air Force on May 2, 2023, airmen look at a GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri.(US Air Force via AP, File)

If the US decides to support Israel more directly in its attack on Iran, one option for Washington would be to provide the "bunker-buster" bombs believed necessary to significantly damage the Fordo nuclear fuel enrichment plant, built deeply into a mountain.

Such a bomb would have to be dropped from an American aircraft, which could have wide-ranging ramifications, including jeopardizing any chance of Iran engaging in Trump's desired talks on its nuclear program. Israeli officials have also suggested that there are other options for it to attack Fordo as it seeks to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities.

But aside from a commando attack on the ground or a nuclear strike, the bunker buster bomb seems the most likely option.

What is the bunker-buster bomb? "Bunker buster" is a broad term used to describe bombs that are designed to penetrate deep below the surface before exploding. In this case, it refers to the latest GBU-57 A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb in the American arsenal. The roughly 30,000 pound (13,600 kilogram) precision-guided bomb is designed to attack deeply buried and hardened bunkers and tunnels, according to the US Air Force.

It's believed to be able to penetrate about 200 feet (61 meters) below the surface before exploding, and the bombs can be dropped one after another, effectively drilling deeper and deeper with each successive blast.

The bomb carries a conventional warhead, but the International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that Iran is producing highly enriched uranium at Fordo, raising the possibility that nuclear material could be released into the area if the GBU-57 A/B were used to hit the facility.

However, Israeli strikes at another Iranian nuclear site, Natanz, on a centrifuge site have caused contamination only at the site itself, not the surrounding area, the IAEA has said.

How tough a target is Fordo? Fordo is Iran's second nuclear enrichment facility after Natanz, its main facility. So far, Israeli strikes aren’t known to have damaged Natanz’s underground enrichment hall, nor have the Israelis targeted tunnels the Iranians are digging nearby.

Fordo is smaller than Natanz, and is built into the side of a mountain near the city of Qom, about 60 miles (95 kilometers) southwest of Tehran. Construction is believed to have started around 2006 and it became first operational in 2009 — the same year Tehran publicly acknowledged its existence.

In addition to being an estimated 80 meters (260 feet) under rock and soil, the site is reportedly protected by Iranian and Russian surface-to-air missile systems. Those air defenses, however, likely have already been struck in the Israeli campaign.

Still, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the goal of attacking Iran was to eliminate its missile and nuclear program, which he described as an existential threat to Israel, and officials have said Fordo was part of that plan.

"This entire operation ... really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordo," Yechiel Leiter, Israel's ambassador to the US, told Fox News on Friday.

Why does the US need to be involved? In theory, the GBU-57 A/B could be dropped by any bomber capable of carrying the weight, but at the moment the US has only configured and programed its B-2 Spirit stealth bomber to deliver the bomb, according to the Air Force.

The B-2 is only flown by the Air Force, and is produced by Northrop Grumman.

According to the manufacturer, the B-2 can carry a payload of 40,000 pounds (18,000 kilograms) but the US Air Force has said it has successfully tested the B-2 loaded with two GBU-57 A/B bunker busters — a total weight of some 60,000 pounds (27,200 kilograms).

The strategic long-range heavy bomber has a range of about 7,000 miles (11,000 kilometers) without refueling and 11,500 miles (18,500 kilometers) with one refueling, and can reach any point in the world within hours, according to Northrop Grumman.

Whether the US would get involved is another matter.

At the G7 meeting in Canada, Trump was asked what it would take for Washington to become involved militarily and he said: "I don't want to talk about that."

In a weekend interview with ABC News, Israeli Ambassador Leiter was asked about the possibility of the US helping attack Fordo and he emphasized Israel has only asked the US for defensive help.

"We have a number of contingencies ... which will enable us to deal with Fordo," he said.

"Not everything is a matter of, you know, taking to the skies and bombing from afar."