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ISIS Threatens the US Again

Rescue teams evacuate wounded people outside the Maalbeek metro station in Brussels on March 22, 2016 in wake of the ISIS-claimed attack. (AFP)
Rescue teams evacuate wounded people outside the Maalbeek metro station in Brussels on March 22, 2016 in wake of the ISIS-claimed attack. (AFP)
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ISIS Threatens the US Again

Rescue teams evacuate wounded people outside the Maalbeek metro station in Brussels on March 22, 2016 in wake of the ISIS-claimed attack. (AFP)
Rescue teams evacuate wounded people outside the Maalbeek metro station in Brussels on March 22, 2016 in wake of the ISIS-claimed attack. (AFP)

Is the battle against the ISIS terrorist organization still ongoing despite its military defeats in Iraq and Syria? This question has started to trouble the Americans more than others.

A survey by the University of Maryland in cooperation with Brooking Institute found that 70 percent of Americans see ISIS as the greatest challenge to the US in the Middle East.

Is ISIS really still a threat to the US within its territories? Can we say that President Donald Trump’s strategy to combat ISIS outside his country's borders was a success, but a failure on the inside?

Prior to his election, Trump had made it clear that he wanted to combat ISIS. After his election, he adopted a more hands-on military policy, albeit a decentralized one, in Syria by offering training and air cover. He also gave the military greater say in field decisions. The results were Trump’s success in liberating in 11 months 40,000 square kilometers of territory that had been occupied by ISIS.

The US military presence in Syria will not end any time soon with the defeat of the terror group. The troops will remain there to prevent Iran and Syrian regime forces from seizing territories that have been freed from the group.

In Iraq, the US-led international coalition played a central role in the liberation of the city of Mosul. Trump’s administration also played an effective role in pressuring countries to stop their terror financing. This weakened ISIS and culminated in the liberation of several other Iraqi cities.

ISIS threats against the US

Despite its defeats in the Middle East, ISIS has not stopped its threats against the US. American intelligence has been wary of this threat from the start. Former Director of US National Intelligence James Clapper had warned in an interview to CNN that ISIS was capable of launching attacks in the US similar to the ones its carried out in Paris and Brussels.

Trump’s controversial decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel has pushed the terrorist organization to renew its calls to launch attacks in the US. At the end of 2017, the group released online a photograph of a man wearing a scarf, showing the ISIS logo, with New York City’s Central Park in the background. The photo’s caption read: “We are in your home.” A number of other similar threats have also been made online, leaving observers to wonder if this was just part of a propaganda war or a precursor for an actual attack.

ISIS to American: We are among you

An analysis of this virtual campaign has led observers to believe that the real threat is now posed from splinter ISIS cells and not the leaders of the group itself. This is a more dangerous prospect than actual direct ISIS attacks. Why so?

When ISIS lost its Raqqa stronghold in Syria, it lost with it all of its professional media capabilities that were the backbone of its once impressive propaganda machine. As evidence, the recent New York photos appear amateurish and were likely taken by bloggers, not actual members of ISIS. This raises the disturbing prospect that ISIS may have won the social media war. Through online media, the group is able to reach and control new members, who have a tendency to extremism and stoke these sentiments to radicalize them. Most worrying is that the locations of these new recruits is unknown and their terror plotting will remain secret, making them much more dangerous than known ISIS members.

General Townsend and the US ‘caliphate’

Lieutenant General Stephen Townsend, the former commander of the international coalition against ISIS, said that destroying ISIS’ so-called “caliphate” in Raqqa does not mean the destruction of the organization. He instead spoke of the possibility of the emergence of a so-called “virtual caliphate” where ISIS will seek to recruit new followers from all over the world.

A security or military confrontation against the virtual threat is useless. Such a war will need electronic measures to combat terrorists on Facebook, Twitter and other social media outlets.

Another danger aspect of the online war are continuous attempts by experts inside the organization to hack the emails of US officials, especially security and intelligence figures. ISIS had indeed hacked the information of US soldiers and diplomats, releasing their names and telephone numbers. In some instances, their home addresses and credit card information were also released.

Threat from the Caribbean

Very few people have been alerted to the potential terrorist threat posed by the small nation of Trinidad and Tobago in the Caribbean. Some 125 ISIS members have hailed from the country in recent years, prompting US authorities to label it as a potential extremist hub. The island is only three hours away from the US and despite the extremist label, it has so far flown under the radar of security monitors.

New ISIS members seeking to attack the US may arm themselves with new weapons by adopting “innovative terrorism.” An example of this may be mass cyanide poisonings in malls or even in food products sold at groceries, which may lead to a worldwide disaster.

Given these possible threats, the FBI said that ISIS remains the greatest threat to the US. This was confirmed in late September by bureau Director Christopher Wray. He said that ISIS, along with local extremists, are the greatest threat to the country. The FBI, he added, has continued to track down Americans seeking to travel to join ISIS and seeking to carry out terror attacks within the US.

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10 Years after Europe's Migration Crisis, the Fallout Reverberates in Greece and Beyond

File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)
File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)
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10 Years after Europe's Migration Crisis, the Fallout Reverberates in Greece and Beyond

File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)
File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)

Fleeing Iran with her husband and toddler, Amena Namjoyan reached a rocky beach of this eastern Greek island along with hundreds of thousands of others. For months, their arrival overwhelmed Lesbos. Boats fell apart, fishermen dove to save people from drowning, and local grandmothers bottle-fed newly arrived babies.

Namjoyan spent months in an overcrowded camp. She learned Greek. She struggled with illness and depression as her marriage collapsed. She tried to make a fresh start in Germany but eventually returned to Lesbos, the island that first embraced her. Today, she works at a restaurant, preparing Iranian dishes that locals devour, even if they struggle to pronounce the names. Her second child tells her, “‘I’m Greek.’”

“Greece is close to my culture, and I feel good here,” Namjoyan said. “I am proud of myself.”

In 2015, more than 1 million migrants and refugees arrived in Europe — the majority by sea, landing in Lesbos, where the north shore is just 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Türkiye. The influx of men, women and children fleeing war and poverty sparked a humanitarian crisis that shook the European Union to its core. A decade later, the fallout still reverberates on the island and beyond.

For many, Greece was a place of transit. They continued on to northern and western Europe. Many who applied for asylum were granted international protection; thousands became European citizens. Countless more were rejected, languishing for years in migrant camps or living in the streets. Some returned to their home countries. Others were kicked out of the European Union.

For Namjoyan, Lesbos is a welcoming place — many islanders share a refugee ancestry, and it helps that she speaks their language. But migration policy in Greece, like much of Europe, has shifted toward deterrence in the decade since the crisis. Far fewer people are arriving illegally. Officials and politicians have maintained that strong borders are needed. Critics say enforcement has gone too far and violates fundamental EU rights and values.

“Migration is now at the top of the political agenda, which it didn’t use to be before 2015,” said Camille Le Coz Director of the Migration Policy Institute Europe, noting changing EU alliances. “We are seeing a shift toward the right of the political spectrum.”

A humanitarian crisis turned into a political one

In 2015, boat after boat crowded with refugees crashed onto the doorstep of Elpiniki Laoumi, who runs a fish tavern across from a Lesbos beach. She fed them, gave them water, made meals for aid organizations.

“You would look at them and think of them as your own children," said Laoumi, whose tavern walls today are decorated with thank-you notes.

From 2015 to 2016, the peak of the migration crisis, more than 1 million people entered Europe through Greece alone. The immediate humanitarian crisis — to feed, shelter and care for so many people at once — grew into a long-term political one.

Greece was reeling from a crippling economic crisis. The influx added to anger against established political parties, fueling the rise of once-fringe populist forces.

EU nations fought over sharing responsibility for asylum seekers. The bloc’s unity cracked as some member states flatly refused to take migrants. Anti-migration voices calling for closed borders became louder.

Today, illegal migration is down across Europe While illegal migration to Greece has fluctuated, numbers are nowhere near 2015-16 figures, according to the International Organization for Migration. Smugglers adapted to heightened surveillance, shifting to more dangerous routes.

Overall, irregular EU border crossings decreased by nearly 40% last year and continue to fall, according to EU border and coast guard agency Frontex.

That hasn’t stopped politicians from focusing on — and sometimes fearmongering over — migration. This month, the Dutch government collapsed after a populist far-right lawmaker withdrew his party’s ministers over migration policy.

In Greece, the new far-right migration minister has threatened rejected asylum seekers with jail time.

A few miles from where Namjoyan now lives, in a forest of pine and olive trees, is a new EU-funded migrant center. It's one of the largest in Greece and can house up to 5,000 people.

Greek officials denied an Associated Press request to visit. Its opening is blocked, for now, by court challenges.

Some locals say the remote location seems deliberate — to keep migrants out of sight and out of mind.

“We don’t believe such massive facilities are needed here. And the location is the worst possible – deep inside a forest,” said Panagiotis Christofas, mayor of Lesbos’ capital, Mytilene. “We’re against it, and I believe that’s the prevailing sentiment in our community.”

A focus on border security

For most of Europe, migration efforts focus on border security and surveillance.

The European Commission this year greenlighted the creation of “return” hubs — a euphemism for deportation centers — for rejected asylum seekers. Italy has sent unwanted migrants to its centers in Albania, even as that faces legal challenges.

Governments have resumed building walls and boosting surveillance in ways unseen since the Cold War.

In 2015, Frontex was a small administrative office in Warsaw. Now, it's the EU's biggest agency, with 10,000 armed border guards, helicopters, drones and an annual budget of over 1 billion euros.

On other issues of migration — reception, asylum and integration, for example — EU nations are largely divided.

The legacy of Lesbos

Last year, EU nations approved a migration and asylum pact laying out common rules for the bloc's 27 countries on screening, asylum, detention and deportation of people trying to enter without authorization, among other things.

“The Lesbos crisis of 2015 was, in a way, the birth certificate of the European migration and asylum policy,” Margaritis Schinas, a former European Commission vice president and a chief pact architect, told AP.

He said that after years of fruitless negotiations, he's proud of the landmark compromise.

“We didn’t have a system,” Schinas said. “Europe’s gates had been crashed."

The deal, endorsed by the United Nations refugee agency, takes effect next year. Critics say it made concessions to hardliners. Human rights organizations say it will increase detention and erode the right to seek asylum.

Some organizations also criticize the “externalization” of EU border management — agreements with countries across the Mediterranean to aggressively patrol their coasts and hold migrants back in exchange for financial assistance.

The deals have expanded, from Türkiye to the Middle East and across Africa. Human rights groups say autocratic governments are pocketing billions and often subject the displaced to appalling conditions.

Lesbos still sees some migrants arrive Lesbos' 80,000 residents look back at the 2015 crisis with mixed feelings.

Fisherman Stratos Valamios saved some children. Others drowned just beyond his reach, their bodies still warm as he carried them to shore.

“What’s changed from back then to now, 10 years on? Nothing,” he said. “What I feel is anger — that such things can happen, that babies can drown.”

Those who died crossing to Lesbos are buried in two cemeteries, their graves marked as “unknown.”

Tiny shoes and empty juice boxes with faded Turkish labels can still be found on the northern coast. So can black doughnut-shaped inner tubes, given by smugglers as crude life preservers for children. At Moria, a refugee camp destroyed by fire in 2020, children’s drawings remain on gutted building walls.

Migrants still arrive, and sometimes die, on these shores. Lesbos began to adapt to a quieter, more measured flow of newcomers.

Efi Latsoudi, who runs a network helping migrants learn Greek and find jobs, hopes Lesbos’ tradition of helping outsiders in need will outlast national policies.

“The way things are developing, it’s not friendly for newcomers to integrate into Greek society,” Latsoudi said. "We need to do something. ... I believe there is hope.”