Sudan Inflation Spikes to 52%

Shop in Sudan's Khartoum. Via Reuters
Shop in Sudan's Khartoum. Via Reuters
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Sudan Inflation Spikes to 52%

Shop in Sudan's Khartoum. Via Reuters
Shop in Sudan's Khartoum. Via Reuters

Inflation in Sudan surged to 52.37 percent in January from 32.15 percent in December, the state statistics agency said, amid rising food prices that have kindled unrest and a hard currency shortage that has crimped imports.

“This is the highest inflation rate in years,” said Karamallah Abdul Rahman, head of the statistics agency to Reuters.

Sudan’s economy has been struggling since the south of the country seceded in 2011, taking with it three-quarters of its oil output.

But the United States lifted 20-year-old sanctions against Khartoum in October, renewing hope that Sudan could draw foreign investment again and get its economy on track.

The Sudanese pound has plummeted to record lows on the black market in recent months after devaluation to 18 per dollar from 6.7 at the start of 2017, following a call by the International Monetary Fund to let the currency float freely.

The government has ruled out a market-determined exchange rate but allowed the currency to weaken further, to as low as 31.5 pounds to the dollar earlier this month.

Businesses say the pound is largely unavailable at this rate however and that they have been forced to resort to an increasingly expensive black market where the currency hit about 40 pounds to the dollar earlier this month, according to Reuters.

That rate has since strengthened, to about 33 pounds to the dollar on Wednesday according to traders, after the central bank banned hard currency deposits sourced from the black market.

Dollar trading at commercial banks on Wednesday meanwhile ranged from 27.34-29.64 Sudanese pounds per dollar, according to the Sudanese Central Bank website, suggesting the gap between the parallel and official rates has narrowed.

The sharply weaker currency and a cut to bread subsidies last month have pushed prices sharply higher, prompting protests across the large northeast African country.



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.