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Asharq Al-Awsat Exclusive – Israeli Strikes Response to ‘Syria’s Surrender to Iran’

Destruction in Homs city, Syria. (Reuters)
Destruction in Homs city, Syria. (Reuters)
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Asharq Al-Awsat Exclusive – Israeli Strikes Response to ‘Syria’s Surrender to Iran’

Destruction in Homs city, Syria. (Reuters)
Destruction in Homs city, Syria. (Reuters)

Despite Israel’s traditional refusal to officially comment on the recent air strikes in Syria, several of its officials have made comments that implicitly reveal that it may have indeed been behind the attack on the regime’s T-4 air base in Homs.

Former chief of staff Moshe Yaalon and a number of former senior officers gave several strong hints on Monday that Israel was indeed behind the strikes.

They delivered several messages that Israel has many purposes that are not limited to preventing the smuggling of arms to “Hezbollah”.

They stressed that Israel will not remain an idle spectator, but it has taken it upon itself to play an active role in the developments in the region.

Political and military circles said that the strikes were linked to the Ankara summit that was held last week between the presidents of Russia, Turkey and Iran.

Israel believes that Iran obtained from this summit the support and backing to remain in Syria, they explained. This will harm Israel and the United States’ interests.

They therefore did not hesitate in criticizing the American administration of President Donald Trump that “is hesitating in remaining in Syria, but is more inclined to withdraw” from the country.

The air strikes are a message that “Israel will not remain silent over this situation and will not allow it to succeed.”

Sources quoted senior Israeli security officials as saying that Iran considers the Ankara summit a green light for it to continue on cementing its presence in Syria.

“This development is worrying for Israel,” they stressed. The summit was aimed at dividing the spoils in Syria after the war ends.

“This is a dangerous development in the region,” they added, while also questioning if Russia really had any real interest in bolstering Iran’s position in Syria.

Yaalon told Israeli military radio on Monday morning that “red lines” should be placed in Syria. He did however object to Minister Yoav Galant’s call to assassinate Syrian regime head Bashar Assad.

Retired Major General Amiram Levin, meanwhile, did not confirm that Israel carried out the strikes, adding however: “It seems very clear who did it.”

“The problem with the US and Israel is that they only respond to developments. They do not have a long-term policy,” he added.

“We must cooperate with the US in order to overthrow Assad. Responses, regardless of how many they are, remain nothing more than responses and this is not enough,” he stressed.

“Israel has means, not just military ones, to work with the US. We must cooperate and oust Assad from power in Syria,” he stated.

Military analyst Amos Harel revealed that Israel had twice struck the military base, once in March 2017 and another time in February. The February attack was in retaliation to an Iranian drone entering Israeli airspace. In a rare occurrence, Israel announced that it had struck targets in Syria.

This week’s attacks may have been part of Israel’s setting of new red lines in Syria linked to thwarting Iran’s presence in the country.

Prior to the strikes, Galant had stressed on Sunday the need to get rid of Assad, whom he called the “angel of death” because he had used chemical weapons against his people on several occasions.

“Assad is the Syrian angel of death. There is no doubt that the world will be a better place without him. Five days ago, the world marked the Holocaust anniversary and the world once again was given a terrible reminder in Syria,” he stated.

“The killer in Damascus is still here and he is using gas to mercilessly murder women and children. The leaders of the world must intervene and fast,” he demanded.

Defense Minister Avidgor Lieberman added that “all sorts of red lines” have been crossed.

“We are watching the developments unfold and are not standing idly by,” he continued.

He accused Iran of controlling developments in Syria and of seizing the country.

Security sources revealed that Israeli intelligence was closely monitoring the use of chemical weapons in Syria.

The question remains whether the regime had again used sarin gas, which Assad had used to target rebels in Khan Sheikhoun a year ago. The attack in April 2017 prompted Trump to order a strike against a Syrian air base.

Israeli experts believe that Assad had used 98 percent of his large chemical arsenal, which included nerve and mustard gas. The arsenal was originally stockpiled to use against Israel should it threaten the regime. It has however left limited quantities of chlorine and sarin gas to use against the rebels to defend the advances it had achieved against them.

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Nasrallah’s Killing Reveals Depth of Israel’s Penetration of Hezbollah

An Iraqi woman holds a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as she attends a protest following the announcement of his death, in Baghdad, Iraq, September 28, 2024. (Reuters)
An Iraqi woman holds a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as she attends a protest following the announcement of his death, in Baghdad, Iraq, September 28, 2024. (Reuters)
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Nasrallah’s Killing Reveals Depth of Israel’s Penetration of Hezbollah

An Iraqi woman holds a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as she attends a protest following the announcement of his death, in Baghdad, Iraq, September 28, 2024. (Reuters)
An Iraqi woman holds a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as she attends a protest following the announcement of his death, in Baghdad, Iraq, September 28, 2024. (Reuters)

In the wake of Hassan Nasrallah's killing, Hezbollah faces the enormous challenge of plugging the infiltration in its ranks that allowed its arch enemy Israel to destroy weapons sites, booby-trap its communications and assassinate the veteran leader, whose whereabouts had been a closely guarded secret for years.

Nasrallah's killing in a command HQ on Friday came barely a week after the deadly detonation of thousands of booby-trapped Hezbollah pagers and hundreds of radios - attacks widely blamed on Israel but which it has not claimed. His assassination was the culmination of a rapid succession of strikes that have eliminated half of Hezbollah's leadership council and decimated its top military command.

In the days before and hours after Nasrallah's killing, Reuters spoke to more than a dozen sources in Lebanon, Israel, Iran and Syria who provided details of the damage Israel has wrought on the powerful Shiite armed group, including to its supply lines and command structure. All asked for anonymity to speak about sensitive matters.

One source familiar with Israeli thinking told Reuters, less than 24 hours before the strike, that Israel has spent 20 years focusing intelligence efforts on Hezbollah and could hit Nasrallah when it wanted, including in the headquarters.

The person called the intelligence "brilliant," without providing details.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his close circle of ministers authorized the attack on Wednesday, two Israeli officials told Reuters. The attack took place while Netanyahu was in New York to speak at the UN General Assembly.

Nasrallah had avoided public appearances since a previous 2006 war. He had long been vigilant, his movements were restricted and the circle of people he saw was very small, according to a source familiar with Nasrallah's security arrangements. The assassination suggested his group had been infiltrated by informants for Israel, the source said.

The leader had been even more cautious than usual since the Sept. 17 pager blasts, out of concern Israel would try to kill him, a security source familiar with Hezbollah's thinking told Reuters a week ago, citing his absence from a commanders' funeral and his pre-recording of a speech broadcast a few days before.

Hezbollah's media office did not respond to a request for comment for this story. US President Joe Biden on Saturday called Nasrallah's killing "a measure of justice" for his many victims, and said the United States fully supported Israel's right to defend itself against Iranian-backed groups.

Israel says it carried out the hit on Nasrallah by dropping bombs on the underground headquarters below a residential building in southern Beirut.

"This is a massive blow and intelligence failure for Hezbollah," Magnus Ranstorp, a veteran Hezbollah expert at the Swedish Defense University. "They knew that he was meeting. He was meeting with other commanders. And they just went for him."

Including Nasrallah, Israel's military says it has killed eight of Hezbollah's nine most senior military commanders this year, mostly in the past week. These commanders led units ranging from the rocket division to the elite Radwan force.

Around 1,500 Hezbollah fighters were maimed by the exploding pagers and walkie talkies on Sept. 17 and Sept. 18.

On Saturday, Israel's military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters in a briefing that the military had "real-time" knowledge that Nasrallah and other leaders were gathering. Shoshani did not say how they knew, but said the leaders were meeting to plan attacks on Israel.

Brigadier General Amichai Levin, commander of Israel's Hatzerim Airbase, told reporters that dozens of munitions hit the target within seconds.

"The operation was complex and was planned for a long time," according to Levin.

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Hezbollah has shown the ability to replace commanders quickly, and Nasrallah's cousin Hashem Safieddine, also a cleric, has long been tipped as his successor.

"You kill one, they get a new one," said a European diplomat of the group's approach.

The group, whose name means Party of God, will fight on: by US and Israeli estimates it had some 40,000 fighters ahead of the current escalation, along with large weapons stockpiles and an extensive tunnel network near Israel's border.

Founded in Lebanon in 1982, the group is the most formidable member of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance of anti-Israel allied irregular forces.

But it has been materially and psychologically weakened over the past 10 days.

Thanks to decades of backing from Iran, prior to the current conflict Hezbollah was among the world's most well-armed non-conventional armies, with an arsenal of 150,000 rockets, missiles and drones, according to US estimates.

That is ten times the size of the armory the group had in 2006, during its last war with Israel, according to Israeli estimates.

Over the past year, even more weapons have flowed into Lebanon from Iran, along with significant amounts of financial aid, a source familiar with Hezbollah's thinking said.

There have been few detailed public assessments of how much this arsenal has been damaged by Israel's offensive over the past week, which has hit Hezbollah strongholds in Bekka Valley, far from Lebanon's border with Israel.

One Western diplomat in the Middle East told Reuters prior to Friday's attack that Hezbollah had lost 20%-25% of its missile capacity in the ongoing conflict, including in hundreds of Israeli strikes this week. The diplomat did not provide evidence or details of their assessment.

An Israeli security official said "a very respectable portion" of Hezbollah's missile stocks had been destroyed, without giving further specifics.

In recent days, Israel has struck more than 1,000 Hezbollah targets. The security official, when asked about the military's extensive target lists, said Israel had matched Hezbollah's two-decade build up with preparations to prevent it launching its rockets in the first place - a complement to the Iron Dome air defense system that often downs missiles fired at the Jewish state.

Israeli officials say the fact that Hezbollah has only been able to launch a couple of hundred missiles a day in the past week was evidence its capabilities had been diminished.

IRAN CONNECTION

Before the strike on Nasrallah, three Iranian sources told Reuters Iran was planning to send additional missiles to Hezbollah to prepare for a prolonged war.

The weapons that were to be provided included short-to-medium-range ballistic missiles including Iranian Zelzals and an upgraded precision version known as the Fateh 110, the first Iranian source said.

Reuters was unable to reach the sources after the Nasrallah assassination.

While Iran is willing to provide military support, the two Iranian sources said it does not want to be directly involved in a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel. The rapid escalation in hostilities over the past week follows a year of skirmishes tied to the Gaza war.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards' deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan was killed in the Israeli strikes on Beirut on Friday, Iranian media reported on Saturday, citing a state TV report.

Hezbollah may need certain warheads and missiles along with drones and missile parts to replenish those destroyed by Israeli strikes across Lebanon last week, a senior Syrian military intelligence source added.

Iranian supplies have in the past reached Hezbollah by air and sea. On Saturday, Lebanon's transport ministry told an Iranian aircraft not to enter its airspace after Israel warned air traffic control at Beirut airport that it would use "force" if the plane landed, a source at the ministry told Reuters.

The source said it was not clear what was on the plane.

Land corridors are currently the best route for missiles, parts and drones, through Iraq and Syria, with the help of allied armed groups in those countries, an Iranian security official told Reuters this week.

The Syrian military source, however, said Israeli drone surveillance and strikes targeting convoys of trucks had compromised that route. This year, Israel stepped up attacks on weapons depots and supply routes in Syria to weaken Hezbollah ahead of any war, Reuters reported in June.

As recently as August, an Israeli drone hit weapons concealed in commercial trailers in Syria, the source said. This week, Israel's military said its warplanes bombed unspecified infrastructure used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah at the Syria-Lebanon border.

Joseph Votel, a former Army general who led US forces in the Middle East, said Israel and its allies could well intercept any missiles Iran sent by land to Hezbollah now.

"That might be a risk they're willing to take, frankly," he said.