Aramco Changes Asia Crude Oil Prices for First Time in 3 Decades

Aramco Changes Asia Crude Oil Prices for First Time in 3 Decades
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Aramco Changes Asia Crude Oil Prices for First Time in 3 Decades

Aramco Changes Asia Crude Oil Prices for First Time in 3 Decades

S&P Global Platts received a blow on Wednesday after Saudi Aramco announced that it is adjusting its Asia crude oil pricing marker in an effort to increase the overall reliability of its crude oil pricing.

Aramco’s new Asia marker will replace Platts Oman with Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) Oman effective October 1, 2018, creating a hybrid between two major Asia benchmarks.

The company’s long-standing price marker was the average of Platts Dubai and Platts Oman assessments.

Saudi Aramco’s vice president of Marketing, Sales and Supply Planning Ahmad Subaey stated that Aramco was rebalancing its Asia marker to ensure that it is underpinned by a broad and vibrant marketplace.

“The inclusion of the DME Oman price complements the existing Platts Dubai price to provide our customers with better visibility into price dynamics. Our main objective is to ensure that our marker is market-reflective, well-regulated, and predictable, and we are confident that the DME Oman price, combined with the Platts Dubai price will serve that purpose,” Subaey said.

These moves come as oil prices for customers remained high because of the high prices of these benchmarks on the Plats platform, which are controlled by a small handful of oil trading companies. Dubai’s crude production fell from half a million barrels per day (bpd) in the eighties to about 40 thousand bpd for the moment.

An important development is that Aramco's decision may support the DME as China strongly supports the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which began this year.

If Shanghai is able to attract and expand long-term contracts, it will become a pricing power for Asia-bound at some point, making the pricing power of producers in the Gulf region subject to the Chinese stock exchange.

While Saudi Aramco’s decision surprised the market, a proposal to switch benchmarks has been discussed internally for years, the sources told Reuters.

The DME launched the Oman contract in 2007 and it is the most liquid physically deliverable futures contract for Middle East crude oil. In comparison, there are rarely bids or offers for Oman cargoes during the Platts market-on-close price assessment.

“It is obvious - look at the trading volumes of DME versus Platts for Oman,” Reuters quoted teaching fellow at the University of Surrey’s Energy Economics Centre Adi Ismirovic as saying.

Imsirovic wrote a paper on Middle East oil benchmarks published in 2014.

Last year, Iraq’s Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) proposed pricing its Basra crude sales to Asia on DME Oman futures starting with January-loading cargoes, but the plan was delayed.

“SOMO was the first on the case but they did not think it through nominations. SOMO went back to the drawing board. Aramco could not be left behind!” Imsirovic said.

Saudi Aramco's decision could improve liquidity for Oman futures trading on the DME and also for derivative instruments based off the Oman contract for hedging or price conversion purposes, a Singapore-based trader said.

"This is a good change as Platts Oman cannot be hedged," he added.



World Bank Raises China's GDP Forecast for 2024, 2025

World Bank Raises China's GDP Forecast for 2024, 2025
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World Bank Raises China's GDP Forecast for 2024, 2025

World Bank Raises China's GDP Forecast for 2024, 2025

The World Bank raised on Thursday its forecast for China's economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that subdued household and business confidence, along with headwinds in the property sector, would keep weighing it down next year.
The world's second-biggest economy has struggled this year, mainly due to a property crisis and tepid domestic demand. An expected hike in US tariffs on its goods when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January may also hit growth.
"Addressing challenges in the property sector, strengthening social safety nets, and improving local government finances will be essential to unlocking a sustained recovery," Mara Warwick, the World Bank's country director for China, said.
"It is important to balance short-term support to growth with long-term structural reforms," she added in a statement.
Thanks to the effect of recent policy easing and near-term export strength, the World Bank sees China's gross domestic product growth at 4.9% this year, up from its June forecast of 4.8%.
Beijing set a growth target of "around 5%" this year, a goal it says it is confident of achieving.
Although growth for 2025 is also expected to fall to 4.5%, that is still higher than the World Bank's earlier forecast of 4.1%.
Slower household income growth and the negative wealth effect from lower home prices are expected to weigh on consumption into 2025, the Bank added.
To revive growth, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported this week.
The figures will not be officially unveiled until the annual meeting of China's parliament, the National People's Congress, in March 2025, and could still change before then.
While the housing regulator will continue efforts to stem further declines in China's real estate market next year, the World Bank said a turnaround in the sector was not anticipated until late 2025.
China's middle class has expanded significantly since the 2010s, encompassing 32% of the population in 2021, but World Bank estimates suggest about 55% remain "economically insecure", underscoring the need to generate opportunities.