Exclusive- The Hidden Meanings behind Frequent Announcements of Baghdadi’s Death

ISIS leader Abou Bakr al-Baghdadi. (AP)
ISIS leader Abou Bakr al-Baghdadi. (AP)
TT
20

Exclusive- The Hidden Meanings behind Frequent Announcements of Baghdadi’s Death

ISIS leader Abou Bakr al-Baghdadi. (AP)
ISIS leader Abou Bakr al-Baghdadi. (AP)

Monday’s announcement that ISIS leader Abou Bakr al-Baghdadi had suffered a severe wound was not the first of its kind. Countless claims have been made over the years over his death, starting from when the 2015 offensive to recapture Iraqi areas under the terror group’s control was launched. None of these claims were ever proven true despite many signs that Baghdadi was indeed severely injured.

The latest story said that the ISIS leader was left “clinically dead” after an Iraqi strike against an ISIS gathering in Syria in late June. Many sources even said that Baghdadi had died and a dispute had erupted over his successor. Some said that Abou Othman al-Tounsi was appointed in his place, sparking a dispute with Iraqi members of the group that opposed the leadership of a Tunisian instead of an Iraqi.

The international coalition combating ISIS did not confirm or deny reports on Baghdadi’s death. It said that it had taken note of them, reported Russia’s Sputnik news agency.

This dismissal of the news raises questions over the original purpose for its circulation in the media, all of which based their stories on a single official Iraqi source.

The lack of independent journalism and the remote geographic location of where his death allegedly took place have proven to be obstacles in verifying the Iraqi source’s claim. This leaves the door wide open for speculation.

This does not, however, prevent adding some main details that led to the announcement of Baghdadi’s “clinical death”.

One must not ignore the reasons that led to the emergence of the terrorist group. These reasons were never addressed politically, but only on the military and security levels. This proves right media reports that said ISIS still holds sway in northern Iraqi regions and camps for people displaced from cities previously under its control.

In other words, the imbalance in Iraqi Sunni-Shiite ties that followed the 2003 American invasion has not yet been resolved politically. This therefore, means that a new power could once again follow ISIS’ example, in one way or another, and seize Iraqi territory. Moreover, the actions of some factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces appear to be adding fuel to the fire by acting like occupying powers in dealing with residents of regions that were captured by ISIS.

On top of that is the belief that a system of rule can be established in Iraq based on ISIS’ military defeat. This hides another deeper belief that it is acceptable to ignore the Sunni Arabs in the country and make due with settlements with politicians who speak on behalf of the group.

This equation will guarantee the reemergence of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s approach that isolated al-Qaeda and, later, ISIS sympathizers and left them as easy prey for the terrorists.

This recalls articles written about the political roots of ISIS and role of former Baathist officers in its formation and leadership. The group was seen as a reflection of a deep crisis that plagued Sunni Arabs. This crisis was unresolved, leaving members of that community to surrender to the reality imposed by the extremist group. This all culminated in a disaster in Iraq that the country has still not recovered from.

Given the above, one can understand the disputes between ISIS commanders over who will succeed Baghdadi. The rejection of Abou Othman al-Tounsi as leader by the majority of the group is a reminder of the originally deep Iraqi nature of ISIS before it expanded into Syria and the world.

One can also not ignore the fact that news of Baghdadi’s injury broke out amid an ongoing political crisis in Baghdad that erupted after the May parliamentary elections. The news of the injury or death of a figure as significant as the ISIS leader can be used as a tool in forming a new government. News of his death could, therefore, pave the way for a new phase of political bargaining.



Syria's Aviation Comeback Struggles amid Regional Turmoil

An airport worker walks on the tarmac next to a Syrian Air plane at the Damascus International Airport on January 7, 2025. (Photo by LOUAI BESHARA / AFP)
An airport worker walks on the tarmac next to a Syrian Air plane at the Damascus International Airport on January 7, 2025. (Photo by LOUAI BESHARA / AFP)
TT
20

Syria's Aviation Comeback Struggles amid Regional Turmoil

An airport worker walks on the tarmac next to a Syrian Air plane at the Damascus International Airport on January 7, 2025. (Photo by LOUAI BESHARA / AFP)
An airport worker walks on the tarmac next to a Syrian Air plane at the Damascus International Airport on January 7, 2025. (Photo by LOUAI BESHARA / AFP)

Poor infrastructure, regional conflict and sporadic Israeli airstrikes are holding back more airlines from returning to Syria, industry officials told Reuters, hampering efforts to rebuild a shattered economy after 14 years of civil war.

This month, at least 11 foreign airlines are scheduled to fly into Syria, up from just three a year ago, as sanctions are scaled back following the overthrow of long-time leader Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.

These include the world's largest international carrier, Dubai's Emirates, and the first two European Union-based airlines to fly into Syria since 2011: Romania's Dan Air and Greece's Air Mediterranean, Reuters said.

But airlines such as Royal Jordanian, FlyDubai, Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways last month were forced to cancel many of their recently launched flights as airspace across the Middle East closed to civil air traffic due to air and missile attacks involving Israel, the US and Iran.

There are dangers closer to home too. Israel carried out strikes against Syrian government forces in southwestern Syria for a second day on Tuesday, vowing to keep the area demilitarized and to protect the Druze minority there.

At the same time, airlines are worried about the state of Syria's aviation infrastructure and management of the industry.

"Progress is needed in regulatory oversight, infrastructure investment, and compliance with international safety and operational standards," industry body the International Air Transport Association said.

Major carriers such as Lufthansa and Air France KLM, which used to fly to Syria pre-war, have visited Damascus airport to assess the infrastructure and former offices, officials at Damascus airport and Syria's aviation regulator told Reuters.

However, both airlines told Reuters they had no current interest in resuming flights.

Small Romanian airline Dan Air launched its Bucharest to Damascus route last month.

"What held back operators until now were the logistical and regulatory complexities," Dan Air CEO Matt Ian David told Reuters, adding that eased sanctions would now make Syria more accessible.

Emirates at the end of May resumed flying over Syria for the first time since the civil war, shaving up to an hour off a Dubai to Beirut flight.

However, several countries, including Britain and the United States, still advise their airlines to avoid flying over Syria. Europe's aviation regulator EASA says "there is a risk of both intentional targeting and misidentification of civil aircraft".

Syria completely reopened its airspace on June 24, its civil air authority said.

Damascus Airport's two runways were bombed during the civil war, but have been repaired. The airport was also looted during the chaos of Assad's fall.

Alaa Sallal, director of public relations at Syria's Civil Aviation Authority, told Reuters a number of airlines had been to inspect security and infrastructure at the airport.

"The airport's construction was dilapidated, the equipment was worn out and some missing," Sallal said.

Radar equipment was lacking, leaving the country reliant on Lebanese or Turkish radar to monitor air traffic, he said.

The head of Syria's General Authority for Civil Aviation earlier this month said it wanted to build new airports in Damascus, Aleppo and in the country's central region. But that will take time and money that the war-ravaged country may struggle to find on its own.

NEW AIRLINES

The mostly Iranian and Iraqi carriers that served Syria through its long conflict have largely stopped flying there, reflecting a new political landscape after Iran- and Russia-backed Assad's overthrow.

The flag carriers of Qatar and Türkiye, countries that backed Syria's rebels through the war, were the first big airlines to resume flights in January under President Ahmed al-Sharaa's new leadership.

Türkiye, a close ally of the new government, has been helping improve Syria's airports, its transport ministry has said.