عربي English Türkçe اردو فارسى
Logo
Latest News
Business

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’
TT
20
TT

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US politicians have been so far unable to convince many of their allies to cut their purchases of Iranian oil to zero by November 4.

Analysts say that the allies are seeking to clinch "the greatest gains” possible, especially in light of tariff battles between the US and a large number of economic blocs, turning the whole thing into a "bargaining chip.”

The United States has not received sufficient guarantees from India, China and the European Union despite President Donald Trump’s warning to all countries that will continue to buy Iranian oil after November 4.

But some states such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan complied with the US decision, and many companies, especially Japanese ones, have begun to reduce their shipments of Iranian oil early this month.

India, the second biggest crude customer for Iran, may cut its imports from the Islamic republic by half to secure a waiver from the US to continue with shipments, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Officials from the US had discussed the issue of a conditional waiver on sanctions in talks last month in New Delhi, they said.

According to Bloomberg, the sources said India has expressed its inability to scrap oil imports from Iran completely as its supplies are being offered at competitive rates. New Delhi expects a response as early as next month when talks resume.

In China, the US has been facing some difficulties to persuade the country to cut Iranian oil imports, according to two officials familiar with the negotiations, Bloomberg reported.

Beijing has, however, agreed not to ramp up purchases of Iranian crude, the officials said.

November 4 is expected to be the beginning of long rounds of negotiations to reduce the purchase of Iranian oil to “zero” instead of being the date of implementation of the second round of US sanctions.

In the past, the Obama administration managed to remove 1.2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil from the market under the ban that was imposed in 2012.

Last Friday, Bloomberg quoted US sources as saying that the White House has now begun to adjust its target quantity of reduced Iranian oil exports to the world.

Most Viewed

 
Business

US Solar Tariffs Could Drive Asia Transition Boom

Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)
Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)
TT
20
TT

US Solar Tariffs Could Drive Asia Transition Boom

Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)
Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)

Massive planned US duties on solar panels made in Southeast Asia could be a chance for the region to ramp up its own long-stalled energy transition, experts say.
Earlier this month, Washington announced plans for hefty duties on solar panels made in Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia.
The levies follow an investigation, launched before US President Donald Trump took office, into "unfair practices" in the countries, particularly by Chinese-headquartered firms, AFP said.
If approved next month, they will pile upon tariffs already imposed by the Trump administration, including blanket 10-percent levies for most countries, and 145 percent on Chinese-made goods.
For the US market, the consequences are likely to be severe. China makes eight out of every 10 solar panels globally, and controls 80 percent of every stage of the manufacturing process.
The new tariffs "will practically make solar exports to US impossible commercially", said Putra Adhiguna, managing director at the Energy Shift Institute think tank.
Southeast Asia accounted for nearly 80 percent of US solar panel imports in 2024.
And while investment in solar production has ramped up in the United States in recent years, the market still relies heavily on imported components.
For Chinese manufacturers, already dealing with a saturated domestic market, the raft of tariffs is potentially very bad news.
Many shifted operations to Southeast Asia hoping to avoid punitive measures imposed by Washington and the European Union as they try to protect and nurture domestic solar industries.
The proposed new duties range from around 40 percent for some Malaysian exports to an eye-watering 3,521 percent for some Cambodia-based manufacturers.
- Tariffs 'accelerate' transition -
But there may be a silver lining for the region, explained Ben McCarron, managing director at Asia Research & Engagement.
"The tariffs and trade war are likely to accelerate the energy transition in Southeast Asia," he said.
China will "supercharge efforts" in regional markets and push for policy and implementation plans to "enable fast adoption of green energy across the region", driven by its exporters.
Analysts have long warned that countries in the region are moving too slowly to transition from planet-warming fossil fuels like coal.
"At the current pace, it (Southeast Asia) risks missing out on the opportunities provided by the declining costs of wind and solar, now cheaper than fossil fuels," said energy think tank Ember in a report last year.
For example, Malaysia relied on fossil fuels for over 80 percent of its electricity generation last year.
It aims to generate 24 percent from renewables by 2030, a target that has been criticized as out of step with global climate goals.
The tariff regime represents a double opportunity for the region, explained Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst at Ember.
So far, the local solar industry has been "largely opportunistic, focused on leveraging domestic resources or labor advantages for export gains", he told AFP.
Cut off from the US market, it could instead focus on local energy transitions, speeding green energy uptake locally and driving a new market that "could serve as a natural hedge against external volatility".
Still, replacing the US market will not be easy, given its size and the relatively nascent state of renewables in the region.
"Success hinges on turning this export-led momentum into a homegrown cleantech revolution," said Yang.
"Clearance prices" may be attractive to some, but countries in the region and beyond may also be cautious about a flood of solar, said Adhiguna.
Major markets like Indonesia and India already have measures in place intended to favor domestic solar production.
"Many will hesitate to import massively, prioritizing trade balance and aims to create local green jobs," he said.