US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’
TT

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US politicians have been so far unable to convince many of their allies to cut their purchases of Iranian oil to zero by November 4.

Analysts say that the allies are seeking to clinch "the greatest gains” possible, especially in light of tariff battles between the US and a large number of economic blocs, turning the whole thing into a "bargaining chip.”

The United States has not received sufficient guarantees from India, China and the European Union despite President Donald Trump’s warning to all countries that will continue to buy Iranian oil after November 4.

But some states such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan complied with the US decision, and many companies, especially Japanese ones, have begun to reduce their shipments of Iranian oil early this month.

India, the second biggest crude customer for Iran, may cut its imports from the Islamic republic by half to secure a waiver from the US to continue with shipments, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Officials from the US had discussed the issue of a conditional waiver on sanctions in talks last month in New Delhi, they said.

According to Bloomberg, the sources said India has expressed its inability to scrap oil imports from Iran completely as its supplies are being offered at competitive rates. New Delhi expects a response as early as next month when talks resume.

In China, the US has been facing some difficulties to persuade the country to cut Iranian oil imports, according to two officials familiar with the negotiations, Bloomberg reported.

Beijing has, however, agreed not to ramp up purchases of Iranian crude, the officials said.

November 4 is expected to be the beginning of long rounds of negotiations to reduce the purchase of Iranian oil to “zero” instead of being the date of implementation of the second round of US sanctions.

In the past, the Obama administration managed to remove 1.2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil from the market under the ban that was imposed in 2012.

Last Friday, Bloomberg quoted US sources as saying that the White House has now begun to adjust its target quantity of reduced Iranian oil exports to the world.



Oil Prices Held Down by Trump Tariff Uncertainty

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown)
TT

Oil Prices Held Down by Trump Tariff Uncertainty

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday, maintaining almost all of the previous session's losses on uncertainty over how US President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs and energy policies would affect global economic growth and energy demand.

Brent crude futures were up 18 cents at $79.18 a barrel by 1315 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose 14 cents to $75.58.

"Oil markets have given back some recent gains due to mixed drivers," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova.

"Key factors include expectations of increased US production under President Trump's pro-drilling policies and easing geopolitical stress in Gaza, lifting fears of further escalation in supply disruption from key producing regions."

The broader economic implications of US tariffs could further dampen global oil demand growth, she added, Reuters reported.

Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine.

He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs and impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. On China, Trump said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty because fentanyl is being sent from there to the United States.

On Monday he declared a national energy emergency intended to provide him with the authority to reduce environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure and projects and ease permitting for new transmission and pipeline infrastructure.

There will be "more potential downward choppy movement in the oil market in the near term due to the Trump administration's lack of clarity on trade tariffs policy and impending higher oil supplies from the US", OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said in an email.

On the US oil inventory front, crude stocks rose by 958,000 barrels in the week ended Jan. 17, according to sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday.

Gasoline inventories rose by 3.23 million barrels and distillate stocks climbed by 1.88 million barrels, they said.