US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’
TT

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US politicians have been so far unable to convince many of their allies to cut their purchases of Iranian oil to zero by November 4.

Analysts say that the allies are seeking to clinch "the greatest gains” possible, especially in light of tariff battles between the US and a large number of economic blocs, turning the whole thing into a "bargaining chip.”

The United States has not received sufficient guarantees from India, China and the European Union despite President Donald Trump’s warning to all countries that will continue to buy Iranian oil after November 4.

But some states such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan complied with the US decision, and many companies, especially Japanese ones, have begun to reduce their shipments of Iranian oil early this month.

India, the second biggest crude customer for Iran, may cut its imports from the Islamic republic by half to secure a waiver from the US to continue with shipments, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Officials from the US had discussed the issue of a conditional waiver on sanctions in talks last month in New Delhi, they said.

According to Bloomberg, the sources said India has expressed its inability to scrap oil imports from Iran completely as its supplies are being offered at competitive rates. New Delhi expects a response as early as next month when talks resume.

In China, the US has been facing some difficulties to persuade the country to cut Iranian oil imports, according to two officials familiar with the negotiations, Bloomberg reported.

Beijing has, however, agreed not to ramp up purchases of Iranian crude, the officials said.

November 4 is expected to be the beginning of long rounds of negotiations to reduce the purchase of Iranian oil to “zero” instead of being the date of implementation of the second round of US sanctions.

In the past, the Obama administration managed to remove 1.2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil from the market under the ban that was imposed in 2012.

Last Friday, Bloomberg quoted US sources as saying that the White House has now begun to adjust its target quantity of reduced Iranian oil exports to the world.



Trump Exempts Mexico Goods from Tariffs for a Month, but Doesn’t Mention Canada

Construction workers are seen on the site of a new development in Long Beach, California, March 5, 2025. (AFP)
Construction workers are seen on the site of a new development in Long Beach, California, March 5, 2025. (AFP)
TT

Trump Exempts Mexico Goods from Tariffs for a Month, but Doesn’t Mention Canada

Construction workers are seen on the site of a new development in Long Beach, California, March 5, 2025. (AFP)
Construction workers are seen on the site of a new development in Long Beach, California, March 5, 2025. (AFP)

US President Donald Trump on Thursday said Mexico won't be required to pay tariffs on any goods that fall under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade until April 2, but made no mention of a reprieve for Canada despite his Commerce secretary saying a comparable exemption was likely.

"After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "This Agreement is until April 2nd."

Earlier on Thursday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the one-month reprieve on hefty tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada that has been granted to automotive products is likely to be extended to all products that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade.

Lutnick told CNBC he expected Trump to announce that extension on Thursday, a day after exempting automotive goods from the 25% tariffs he slapped on imports from Canada and Mexico earlier in the week.

Trump "is going to decide this today," Lutnick said, adding "it's likely that it will cover all USMCA-compliant goods and services."

"So if you think about it this way, if you lived under Donald Trump's US-Mexico-Canada agreement, you will get a reprieve from these tariffs now. If you chose to go outside of that, you did so at your own risk, and today is when that reckoning comes," he said.

Nonetheless, Trump's social media post made no mention of a reprieve for Canada, the other party to the USMCA deal that Trump negotiated during his first term as president.

Lutnick said his "off the cuff" estimate was that more than 50% of the goods imported from the two US neighbors - also its largest two trading partners - were compliant with the USMCA deal that Trump negotiated during his first term as president.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Lutnick's comments "promising" in remarks to reporters in Canada.

"That aligns with some of the conversations that we have been having with administration officials, but I'm going to wait for an official agreement to talk about Canadian response and look at the details of it," Trudeau said. "But it is a promising sign. But I will highlight that it means that the tariffs remain in place, and therefore our response will remain in place."

Lutnick emphasized that the reprieve would only last until April 2, when he said the administration plans to move ahead with reciprocal tariffs under which the US will impose levies that match those imposed by trading partners.

In the meantime, he said, the current hiatus is about getting fentanyl deaths down, which is the initial justification Trump used for the tariffs on Mexico and Canada and levies on Chinese goods that have now risen to 20%.

"On April 2, we're going to move with the reciprocal tariffs, and hopefully Mexico and Canada will have done a good enough job on fentanyl that this part of the conversation will be off the table, and we'll move just to the reciprocal tariff conversation," Lutnick said. "But if they haven't, this will stay on."

Indeed, Trudeau is expecting the US and Canada to remain in a trade war.

"I can confirm that we will continue to be in a trade war that was launched by the United States for the foreseeable future," he told reporters in Ottawa.