US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’
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US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US politicians have been so far unable to convince many of their allies to cut their purchases of Iranian oil to zero by November 4.

Analysts say that the allies are seeking to clinch "the greatest gains” possible, especially in light of tariff battles between the US and a large number of economic blocs, turning the whole thing into a "bargaining chip.”

The United States has not received sufficient guarantees from India, China and the European Union despite President Donald Trump’s warning to all countries that will continue to buy Iranian oil after November 4.

But some states such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan complied with the US decision, and many companies, especially Japanese ones, have begun to reduce their shipments of Iranian oil early this month.

India, the second biggest crude customer for Iran, may cut its imports from the Islamic republic by half to secure a waiver from the US to continue with shipments, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Officials from the US had discussed the issue of a conditional waiver on sanctions in talks last month in New Delhi, they said.

According to Bloomberg, the sources said India has expressed its inability to scrap oil imports from Iran completely as its supplies are being offered at competitive rates. New Delhi expects a response as early as next month when talks resume.

In China, the US has been facing some difficulties to persuade the country to cut Iranian oil imports, according to two officials familiar with the negotiations, Bloomberg reported.

Beijing has, however, agreed not to ramp up purchases of Iranian crude, the officials said.

November 4 is expected to be the beginning of long rounds of negotiations to reduce the purchase of Iranian oil to “zero” instead of being the date of implementation of the second round of US sanctions.

In the past, the Obama administration managed to remove 1.2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil from the market under the ban that was imposed in 2012.

Last Friday, Bloomberg quoted US sources as saying that the White House has now begun to adjust its target quantity of reduced Iranian oil exports to the world.



China's Iran Oil Imports Surge in June on Rising Shipments, Teapot Demand

FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
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China's Iran Oil Imports Surge in June on Rising Shipments, Teapot Demand

FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS

China's Iranian oil imports surged in June as shipments accelerated before the recent conflict in the region and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said.

The world's top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude brought in more than 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) from June 1-20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm's data.

Kpler's data put the month-to-date average of China's Iranian oil and condensate imports at 1.46 million bpd as of June 27, up from one million bpd in May.

The rising imports are fueled in part by the accelerated discharge of high volumes of Iranian oil on the water after export loadings from Iran reached a multi-year high of 1.83 million bpd in May, Kpler data showed.

It typically takes at least one month for Iranian oil to reach Chinese ports, Reuters reported.

Robust loadings in May and early June mean China's Iran imports are poised to remain elevated, Kpler and Vortexa analysts said.

Independent Chinese "teapot" refineries, the main buyers of Iranian oil, also showed strong demand for the discount barrels as their stockpiles depleted, said Xu Muyu, Kpler's senior analyst.

A possible relaxing of US President Donald Trump's policy on Iranian oil sanctions could further bolster Chinese buying, she added.

Trump said on Wednesday that Washington has not given up its maximum pressure campaign on Iran - including restrictions on Iranian oil sales - but signaled a potential easing in enforcement to help the country rebuild.

For this week, Iranian Light crude oil was being traded at around $2 a barrel below ICE Brent for end-July to early-August deliveries, two traders familiar with the matter said, compared to discounts of $3.30-$3.50 a barrel previously for July deliveries.

Narrower discounts were spurred by worries that oil flows could be disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway between Iran and Oman, traders said.

Market fears for a closure of the chokepoint had escalated after last weekend's US attack on Iranian nuclear sites but eased after Iran and Israel on Tuesday signaled a ceasefire.

Tighter discounts for Iranian oil come amid a retreat in futures prices. ICE Brent crude futures hovered at $68 per barrel on Friday, their level before the Israel-Iran conflict began and down 19% from Monday's five-month peak.