US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’
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US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US politicians have been so far unable to convince many of their allies to cut their purchases of Iranian oil to zero by November 4.

Analysts say that the allies are seeking to clinch "the greatest gains” possible, especially in light of tariff battles between the US and a large number of economic blocs, turning the whole thing into a "bargaining chip.”

The United States has not received sufficient guarantees from India, China and the European Union despite President Donald Trump’s warning to all countries that will continue to buy Iranian oil after November 4.

But some states such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan complied with the US decision, and many companies, especially Japanese ones, have begun to reduce their shipments of Iranian oil early this month.

India, the second biggest crude customer for Iran, may cut its imports from the Islamic republic by half to secure a waiver from the US to continue with shipments, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Officials from the US had discussed the issue of a conditional waiver on sanctions in talks last month in New Delhi, they said.

According to Bloomberg, the sources said India has expressed its inability to scrap oil imports from Iran completely as its supplies are being offered at competitive rates. New Delhi expects a response as early as next month when talks resume.

In China, the US has been facing some difficulties to persuade the country to cut Iranian oil imports, according to two officials familiar with the negotiations, Bloomberg reported.

Beijing has, however, agreed not to ramp up purchases of Iranian crude, the officials said.

November 4 is expected to be the beginning of long rounds of negotiations to reduce the purchase of Iranian oil to “zero” instead of being the date of implementation of the second round of US sanctions.

In the past, the Obama administration managed to remove 1.2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil from the market under the ban that was imposed in 2012.

Last Friday, Bloomberg quoted US sources as saying that the White House has now begun to adjust its target quantity of reduced Iranian oil exports to the world.



China’s Leader Ends Southeast Asia Tour Touting Beijing’s Reliability vs. US Tariff Threats

This pool photo taken and released on April 18, 2025 by Agence Kampuchea Presse (AKP) shows China's President Xi Jinping (C-L) walking with Cambodia's Senate President Hun Sen (C-R) past the honour guard upon his departure at Phnom Penh International Airport. (AFP)
This pool photo taken and released on April 18, 2025 by Agence Kampuchea Presse (AKP) shows China's President Xi Jinping (C-L) walking with Cambodia's Senate President Hun Sen (C-R) past the honour guard upon his departure at Phnom Penh International Airport. (AFP)
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China’s Leader Ends Southeast Asia Tour Touting Beijing’s Reliability vs. US Tariff Threats

This pool photo taken and released on April 18, 2025 by Agence Kampuchea Presse (AKP) shows China's President Xi Jinping (C-L) walking with Cambodia's Senate President Hun Sen (C-R) past the honour guard upon his departure at Phnom Penh International Airport. (AFP)
This pool photo taken and released on April 18, 2025 by Agence Kampuchea Presse (AKP) shows China's President Xi Jinping (C-L) walking with Cambodia's Senate President Hun Sen (C-R) past the honour guard upon his departure at Phnom Penh International Airport. (AFP)

Chinese President Xi Jinping capped a three-nation Southeast Asia tour in Cambodia on Friday, promoting Beijing's reliability as the region faces economic uncertainty due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals.

China has been strongly increasing its influence in the region over the past decade, largely by exercising its substantial economic leverage. Beijing is now presenting itself as a source of stability and certainty as Trump’s tariffs threaten the region’s export-oriented economies whose largest market is generally the United States.

Cambodia faces among the highest reciprocal tariff rates proposed by Washington. In addition to Trump’s universal 10% tariff, it faces the threat of a 49% tariff on exports to the US once his 90-day pause expires. For the other nations visited by Xi, Vietnam 's tariff would be 46%, and Malaysia 's 24%.

"The timing of the visit is extraordinarily auspicious for China, falling just in the wake of the announcement of Trump’s tariffs that have caused managed consternation in Cambodia and Vietnam ... and upset in Malaysia," Astrid Norén-Nilsson, a senior lecturer in the Study of Contemporary South-East Asia at Sweden’s Lund University, said in an email interview on Thursday.

"Xi Jinping can now carry out the tour equipped with the moral authority and goodwill of a singularly constant friend and reliable trading partner."

In Vietnam and Malaysia, Xi emphasized strengthening ties, particularly in trade and investment, and underscored the need to oppose unilateralism and protectionism and uphold the multilateral trading system.

A summary of the visit issued Friday by Cambodia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry barely mentioned the trade crisis, focusing instead on bilateral relations, though China's state Xinhua news agency said Xi had discussed the same trade issues as on his previous stops.

"This milestone visit not only reaffirmed the unwavering commitment to the ironclad friendship between Cambodia and China, but also further strengthened and deepened the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and win-win cooperation between the two countries," said the Cambodian statement.

During his stay, Xi was granted a royal audience by King Norodom Sihamoni and held meetings with Prime Minister Hun Manet and Senate President Hun Sen, who is Hun Manet’s father and predecessor as prime minister. The visit was Xi’s first to Cambodia since 2016.

Xi and Hun Manet also presided over the signing of 37 documents covering investment, trade, education, finance, information, youth work, agriculture, health, water resources, tourism, women’s affairs and other subjects.

Details of the biggest deal were announced Friday, the signing of a public-private partnership contract to fund Cambodia's ambitious $1.156 billion Funan Techo Canal project, which was launched last year but work stopped soon after groundbreaking.

The 151 kilometer (94 mile)-long canal would link a branch of the Mekong River to a port on the Gulf of Thailand.

China has been Cambodia’s largest trading partner for 13 consecutive years, with two-way trade in 2024 reaching $17.83 billion, though greatly in China’s favor. It has also been Cambodia’s largest source of foreign investment for 13 consecutive years, as well as a major aid donor and its biggest creditor.

Referring to social and development issues, the Foreign Ministry's statement implicitly made a contrast to positions held by the United States, saying "both sides acknowledged the global threat posed by climate change and committed to strengthening environmental protection (and) advancing clean energy collaboration."

It mentioned as well China’s help in dealing with Cambodia’s problem of clearing land mines left over from armed conflicts decades ago, and cooperation in the health sector. The Trump administration’s foreign aid cuts have affected those and other sectors.

The statement also declared that "both sides agreed to further strengthen the cooperation mechanism between the armed forces of the two countries."

Beijing helped fund an expansion of the Ream Naval Base on Cambodia’s southern coast, raising worries it could become a strategic outpost for the Chinese navy in the Gulf of Thailand.

The statement did not mention the base issue. Cambodia has repeatedly denied any agreement granting China special privileges or the establishment of a foreign military base.

Cambodia has stated that warships from all friendly countries are welcome to dock at its new pier, provided they comply with certain conditions. Japan announced on Tuesday that two of its minesweepers will visit the Ream base this weekend in the first foreign navy visit since the expansion project was completed.