US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’
TT

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US Ban on Iranian Oil Turns into ‘Bargaining Chip’

US politicians have been so far unable to convince many of their allies to cut their purchases of Iranian oil to zero by November 4.

Analysts say that the allies are seeking to clinch "the greatest gains” possible, especially in light of tariff battles between the US and a large number of economic blocs, turning the whole thing into a "bargaining chip.”

The United States has not received sufficient guarantees from India, China and the European Union despite President Donald Trump’s warning to all countries that will continue to buy Iranian oil after November 4.

But some states such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan complied with the US decision, and many companies, especially Japanese ones, have begun to reduce their shipments of Iranian oil early this month.

India, the second biggest crude customer for Iran, may cut its imports from the Islamic republic by half to secure a waiver from the US to continue with shipments, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Officials from the US had discussed the issue of a conditional waiver on sanctions in talks last month in New Delhi, they said.

According to Bloomberg, the sources said India has expressed its inability to scrap oil imports from Iran completely as its supplies are being offered at competitive rates. New Delhi expects a response as early as next month when talks resume.

In China, the US has been facing some difficulties to persuade the country to cut Iranian oil imports, according to two officials familiar with the negotiations, Bloomberg reported.

Beijing has, however, agreed not to ramp up purchases of Iranian crude, the officials said.

November 4 is expected to be the beginning of long rounds of negotiations to reduce the purchase of Iranian oil to “zero” instead of being the date of implementation of the second round of US sanctions.

In the past, the Obama administration managed to remove 1.2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil from the market under the ban that was imposed in 2012.

Last Friday, Bloomberg quoted US sources as saying that the White House has now begun to adjust its target quantity of reduced Iranian oil exports to the world.



IMF Warns Asia Retaliatory Tariffs Could Undermine Growth

A man walks with his bicycle along a crosswalk in Beijing, China, 16 November 2024. (EPA)
A man walks with his bicycle along a crosswalk in Beijing, China, 16 November 2024. (EPA)
TT

IMF Warns Asia Retaliatory Tariffs Could Undermine Growth

A man walks with his bicycle along a crosswalk in Beijing, China, 16 November 2024. (EPA)
A man walks with his bicycle along a crosswalk in Beijing, China, 16 November 2024. (EPA)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that "tit-for-tat" tariffs could undermine Asia's economic prospects, raise costs and disrupt supply chains even as it expects the region to remain a key engine of growth for the global economy.

"The tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs threaten to disrupt growth prospects across the region, leading to longer and less efficient supply chains," IMF Asia-Pacific Director Krishna Srinivasan said at a forum in Cebu on systemic risk.

Srinivasan's remarks come amid concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's plan to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and at least a 10% levy on all other imports.

Tariffs could impede global trade, hamper growth in exporting nations, and potentially raise inflation in the United States, forcing the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, despite a lackluster outlook for global growth.

In October, the European Union also decided to increase tariffs on Chinese-built electric vehicles to as much as 45.3%, prompting retaliation from Beijing.

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook forecasts global economic growth at 3.2% for both 2024 and 2025, weaker than its more optimistic projections for Asia, which stand at 4.6% for this year and 4.4% for next year.

Asia is "witnessing a period of important transition", creating greater uncertainty, including the "acute risk" of escalating trade tensions across major trading partners, Srinivasan said.

He added that uncertainty surrounding monetary policy in advanced economies and related market expectations could affect monetary decisions in Asia, influencing global capital flows, exchange rates, and other financial markets.