Exclusive - Arabs in Kirkuk Refuse Peshmerga Return

A Kurdish Peshmerga fighter in the southwest of Kirkuk. (Reuters)
A Kurdish Peshmerga fighter in the southwest of Kirkuk. (Reuters)
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Exclusive - Arabs in Kirkuk Refuse Peshmerga Return

A Kurdish Peshmerga fighter in the southwest of Kirkuk. (Reuters)
A Kurdish Peshmerga fighter in the southwest of Kirkuk. (Reuters)

Arab forces in Kirkuk have expressed their rejection to the return of Kurdish Peshmerga and Asayish forces to the oil-rich province and other disputes regions.

They called on the Kurdish and Iraqi forces that were victorious in the May parliamentary elections against dragging Kikruk into their political negotiations that are aimed at forming the largest bloc at the legislature.

Spokesman of the Arab Council in Kirkuk Hatem al-Taei stressed that it opposes the return of the Peshmerga.

The council represents the vast majority of the Arab political and social forces in the province.

Taei told Asharq Al-Awsat that the legal explanation of the “disputed regions” means that only federal forces are allowed to deploy there.

These forces bring together all components of society without exception, he stressed.

“Our problem, as Arabs in Kirkuk, does not lie with the Kurds or Kurdish political forces, but with the powers that control the security and military forces that have seized Kirkuk,” he added.

“We suffered under the rule of these forces throughout the duration of the war against ISIS,” he revealed. “They committed many many violations against our regions and their Arab residents.”

He accused the Kurdish forces of arresting the youth and destroying 116 Arab villages in Kirkuk without any justified reason simply because they “lie within the borders of regions the forces wanted to claim as their own through bloodshed.”

“It would be difficult to predict the Arab reaction in Kirkuk should the return of the Kurdish forces be allowed there. The Arabs are very bitter about the past experience,” he warned.

The Turkmen forces in Kirkuk also appeared reluctant to accept the return of the Peshmerga.

Spokesman for the Turkmen Decision Party Mahdi Bozok told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Turkmen will accept the Kurdish forces’ return only if they are controlled by the federal authorities, meaning they should receive direct orders from the Iraqi government.

He called for reconciliation between all segments of Kirkuk society and that the Turkmen be included in negotiations over the fate of the province.

“There can be no stability in Kirkuk without the Turkmen,” he declared.

The management of the province must take place between all forces that are present there, he stressed.

The Peshmerge are part of the Iraqi defense system and the constitution stipulates that such a system is exclusively subject to the federal authorities, he went on to say.

On the other side of the divide, Kurdish parties voiced their rejection of the Arab and Turkmen stances on the Peshmerga, dismissing them as political statements aimed at achieving political gains at the expense of the province.

None of their claims have constitutional or legal bases, they added.

Leading member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Khaled Shwani accused the Arab and Turkmen powers of putting their interests above those of the residents of Kirkuk.

He cited the Iraqi constitution that stipulates that the security of regions that are disputed between Baghdad and Erbil be jointly controlled by federal and Peshmerga forces.

The constitution says that the federal forces must include all members of society, he stated.

The current forces deployed in Kirkuk only represent one segment of the local society, which is why the Peshmerga must take part in security duties there, he added.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.