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Iran to Store Its Oil in Fleet of Supertankers

Oil tanker. (File Photo: Reuters)
Oil tanker. (File Photo: Reuters)
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Iran to Store Its Oil in Fleet of Supertankers

Oil tanker. (File Photo: Reuters)
Oil tanker. (File Photo: Reuters)

Iran seems to be struggling again from US sanctions and despite major buyers announcement for their full compliance with Washington’s will to fully stop any incoming Iranian oil, Tehran is starting to store oil in fleet of supertankers again as impending US sanctions force the Gulf country to revive a strategy it deployed under previous curbs.

Bloomberg’s tanker tracking data revealed there are currently eight tankers holding 14 million barrels of Iranian crude or condensate, a form of light crude extracted from gas fields, anchored in the Persian Gulf. This indicates that Iran is having a hard time finding buyers for its oil.

The build-up in Iranian oil supplies underscores the pressure that Iran is facing as Washington aims to bring Iranian oil exports down to zero to force Tehran to re-negotiate a nuclear deal.

The Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) Felicity loaded condensate at Iran’s Assaluyeh port in early August and then set sail for Jebel Ali in the UAE, shipping and trade flows data on Reuters showed. It arrived at the ship-to-ship transfer area off Dubai on Aug. 7 and has been anchored there since.

Last year, China was the largest buyer of Iranian crude accounting for almost a third of Iran’s crude and condensate exports.

Exports so far this month slumped to around 1.3 million barrels a day (bpd) after they were as high as 3 million bpd back in 2016.

Iran finally managed to get Dino I and Dune to China out of Kharg Island. The last vessel to make the journey was the supertanker Starla, which left on Aug. 25 carrying two million barrels.

During the first half of this year, Iran shipped 660,000 bpd of oil to China. To maintain that rate of purchases, five to six supertankers should have left for China in the past 18 days. So far, most of the ships have only been holding crude at sea for a few weeks, rather than for months at a time as they did during 2012-2016 sanctions, tanker tracking compiled by Bloomberg show.

Almost all of Iran’s main customers purchased fewer Iranian barrels in August than they did in April, the month before Trump said sanctions were being reimposed.

Regardless of the motivation, flows to China have plunged at a difficult moment for Iran, with buyers including South Korea, France and others either reducing or completely stopping their purchases due to US pressure. Tanker tracking compiled by Bloomberg indicates that OPEC’s fourth-largest exporter is already having to store barrels amid dwindling demand.

The tankers, carrying about 2.4 million barrels of South Pars condensate combined, have been floating off the UAE since August after South Korea halted imports from Iran while China’s demand dropped during summer, according to several industry sources and shipping data.

International Energy Agency (IEA) said the impact of the sanctions will soon affect Iran as the country’s crude output fell by 150,000 bpd in July compared with same time last year. Exports fell 280,000 bpd reaching to 1.9 million bpd from a peak of 2.5 million bpd in May.

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monthly report released on Thursday showed Iran's oil production fell by 150,000 bpd in August, despite OPEC's monthly oil production rising 278 million bpd to reach 32.6 million bpd.

Iran's oil production fell for the fourth month in a row, according to OPEC data, to 3.584 million barrels, compared to 3.734 million barrels last July.

Iran will face US sanctions on its oil sector in early November. Trump administration's aim is to stop Iranian exports altogether. China, Iran's biggest oil importer, said it will continue to import oil from Tehran.

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Venezuela Depreciation Risks Reversing Years of Inflation Gains

People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
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Venezuela Depreciation Risks Reversing Years of Inflation Gains

People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)

Currency depreciation is set to reverse years of declining inflation in economically beleaguered Venezuela, public and private sector sources say, as foreign currency sales fall short of demand and the socialist government keeps tight-lipped about its strategy.

After years of hyperinflation and amid broad US sanctions, in 2022 the administration of President Nicolas Maduro began using orthodox policies including credit restrictions, lower public spending, a fixed dollar-bolivar rate and central bank sales of billions of dollars in foreign currency to tamp down consumer prices.

Maduro, who will begin his third term in January after a disputed election that the opposition and international observers say he lost, has said his government defeated inflation of more than 100,000% and prices in 2024 are similar to those in 2014.

But the administration's policy has now changed.

After more than nine months of the exchange rate being held at 36.5 bolivars to the dollar, the government in mid-October allowed the currency to float, beginning a depreciation that has seen the bolivar slide to about 45 versus the dollar, according to central bank figures.

Analysts say the over-valued currency made imports cheaper than locally-produced goods, impacting Venezuela's private sector and helping push prices up by 12% in nine months.

The untethering of the exchange rate will also put upward pressure on prices in the final quarter of 2024, financial and business sources said, with analysts predicting in a LatinFocus survey the rate will end the year at 50 bolivars to the dollar.

Year-on-year inflation was 25% through September. Official figures for October have not yet been released.

"For nine months the depreciation of the currency was zero while inflation was rising, which exposed problems in the exchange scheme," said economics professor and consultant Daniel Cadenas, who added the market depends on oil income. "For the system to function, there needs to be a growing source of exchange and that's not possible."

The government had predicted internally that inflation would close the year at 30%, two sources with knowledge of the projection said, but depreciation could increase the figure and local analysts have estimated inflation between 35% and 40%.

"There has been a necessary adjustment in the exchange rate that will have an impact on inflation," said Asdrubal Oliveros, head of local think tank Ecoanalitica. "The government has understood it needs to devaluate."

REDUCED CENTRAL BANK SALES

Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who until recently also served as finance minister, told an event with business people last month that there must be "reflection" about the use of foreign exchange.

"We should all be concerned with how foreign exchange is used in imports. It is a subject the Finance Ministry is reviewing," she said. "We need to take care of foreign exchange because this is a blockaded country and there cannot be cheap exchange for hair dye."

Rodriguez's comments are the only ones made on the subject by the government since devaluation began. Neither the central bank nor the communications or finance ministries responded to requests for comment.

Private sector demand for cheap foreign exchange increased during the nine months the rate was held, even as the quantity of dollars being injected into the market by the central bank was reduced, sources said.

In July the bank was offering some $800 million, but by October that figure had fallen to $400 million, according to calculations by local consultancy Sintesis Financiera.

The central bank did not respond to a question about the reduction.

"The strategy in exchange policy is not going ahead," a government source said, without giving further details.

Food and medicine companies in Venezuela are allowed to pay for some of their goods with foreign currency, while other companies are given central bank promissory notes indexed to a specific exchange rate.

Two private sector sources said many businesses are eating through their inventories in the face of import difficulties.