OPEC+ Returns to 100% Compliance, Rebuffing Trump's Calls

Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)
Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)
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OPEC+ Returns to 100% Compliance, Rebuffing Trump's Calls

Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)
Saudi Energy and Oil Minister and Chairman of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Khalid Al-Falih, speaks to journalists during the 10th JMMC meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. (AFP)

Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC and partners, known as OPEC+, has agreed to 100 percent compliance with the cut deal, ruling out any immediate, additional increase in crude output, effectively rebuffing US President Donald Trump's calls for action to cool the market.

Following the ministerial meeting in Algiers, Oman's Oil Minister Mohammed al-Rumhy and his Kuwaiti counterpart Bakhit al-Rashidi told reporters after Sunday's talks that producers had agreed they needed to focus on reaching 100 percent compliance with production cuts agreed in June.

That effectively means compensating for falling Iranian production, however, Rumhy said the exact mechanism for doing so had not been discussed.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said in his opening remarks that the past year had been a historic one for the Organization, as well as the global oil industry, with the historic ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ helping accelerate the return of balance to the global oil market, bringing more optimism to the industry, which in turn, has had a positive effect on the global economy and trade worldwide.

He added that the importance of these recent developments, specifically in terms of helping achieve sustainable market stability, is clearly vital across all time-frames.

"Stability today begets stability tomorrow, which is vital given that our industry remains a growth business, with oil continuing to be a fuel of choice for the foreseeable future," Barkindo stated.

Meanwhile, UAE Minister of Energy and Industry Suhail Mohamed al Mazrouei asserted that the industry is in a much healthier place than when the historic Algiers meeting took place on 28 September 2016.

The Minister explained that fundamentals are strong and “we have seen a return of a greater degree of balance to the market. OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have demonstrated what can be achieved when working together. I’d like to commend all participating countries for their historic efforts in this regard."

There is no doubt that this committee has played an important role in contributing to many successes, he indicated, adding that proper monitoring of conditions in the oil market is an essential component of transparent and effective work.

“The JMMC continues to fulfill its mandate commendably...Despite our major achievements towards market stability, we face new uncertainties today. Many of these uncertainties are factors beyond our control; nevertheless, they need to be continuously monitored in order to build on the progress made to date," he added.

Mazrouei called for continuing the discussions on further means of institutionalizing the cooperation.

For his part, Saudi Energy Minister, who is also Chairman of OPEC's JMMC, Khalid Falih stated that in the 10th meeting of the JMMC, the attendees discussed the excellent results achieved through collaboration between OPEC and non-OPEC countries.

“I reiterated the critical role oil plays in strengthening the global economy and our keen desire to cushion economies of developing nations,” he added.

The meeting also discussed current oil market conditions and future plans to extend the work of the JMMC to continue to monitor changing conditions in order to ensure sufficient supplies of oil to consumers, Falih indicated.

“Our attention is shifting to 2019. We have been briefed on the prospect of 2019 inventory builds which result from significant supply growth from non-member counties,” Falih said.

Falih said returning to 100 percent compliance was the main objective and should be achieved in the next two to three months, although he refrained from specifying how that could be done.

Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said no immediate output increase was necessary, although he believed a trade war between China and the United States as well as US sanctions on Iran were creating new challenges for oil markets.

“Oil demand will be declining in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. So far, we have decided to stick to our June agreements,” Novak said.

He admitted there were a number of uncertainties regarding several issues, which can be seen in global economic markets.

“We will have to work very, very, very hard together in order to achieve the goals and ensure the implementation of our common arrangements in order to achieve equilibrium in the market," asserted the Russian minister.



Venezuela Depreciation Risks Reversing Years of Inflation Gains

People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
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Venezuela Depreciation Risks Reversing Years of Inflation Gains

People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)

Currency depreciation is set to reverse years of declining inflation in economically beleaguered Venezuela, public and private sector sources say, as foreign currency sales fall short of demand and the socialist government keeps tight-lipped about its strategy.

After years of hyperinflation and amid broad US sanctions, in 2022 the administration of President Nicolas Maduro began using orthodox policies including credit restrictions, lower public spending, a fixed dollar-bolivar rate and central bank sales of billions of dollars in foreign currency to tamp down consumer prices.

Maduro, who will begin his third term in January after a disputed election that the opposition and international observers say he lost, has said his government defeated inflation of more than 100,000% and prices in 2024 are similar to those in 2014.

But the administration's policy has now changed.

After more than nine months of the exchange rate being held at 36.5 bolivars to the dollar, the government in mid-October allowed the currency to float, beginning a depreciation that has seen the bolivar slide to about 45 versus the dollar, according to central bank figures.

Analysts say the over-valued currency made imports cheaper than locally-produced goods, impacting Venezuela's private sector and helping push prices up by 12% in nine months.

The untethering of the exchange rate will also put upward pressure on prices in the final quarter of 2024, financial and business sources said, with analysts predicting in a LatinFocus survey the rate will end the year at 50 bolivars to the dollar.

Year-on-year inflation was 25% through September. Official figures for October have not yet been released.

"For nine months the depreciation of the currency was zero while inflation was rising, which exposed problems in the exchange scheme," said economics professor and consultant Daniel Cadenas, who added the market depends on oil income. "For the system to function, there needs to be a growing source of exchange and that's not possible."

The government had predicted internally that inflation would close the year at 30%, two sources with knowledge of the projection said, but depreciation could increase the figure and local analysts have estimated inflation between 35% and 40%.

"There has been a necessary adjustment in the exchange rate that will have an impact on inflation," said Asdrubal Oliveros, head of local think tank Ecoanalitica. "The government has understood it needs to devaluate."

REDUCED CENTRAL BANK SALES

Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who until recently also served as finance minister, told an event with business people last month that there must be "reflection" about the use of foreign exchange.

"We should all be concerned with how foreign exchange is used in imports. It is a subject the Finance Ministry is reviewing," she said. "We need to take care of foreign exchange because this is a blockaded country and there cannot be cheap exchange for hair dye."

Rodriguez's comments are the only ones made on the subject by the government since devaluation began. Neither the central bank nor the communications or finance ministries responded to requests for comment.

Private sector demand for cheap foreign exchange increased during the nine months the rate was held, even as the quantity of dollars being injected into the market by the central bank was reduced, sources said.

In July the bank was offering some $800 million, but by October that figure had fallen to $400 million, according to calculations by local consultancy Sintesis Financiera.

The central bank did not respond to a question about the reduction.

"The strategy in exchange policy is not going ahead," a government source said, without giving further details.

Food and medicine companies in Venezuela are allowed to pay for some of their goods with foreign currency, while other companies are given central bank promissory notes indexed to a specific exchange rate.

Two private sector sources said many businesses are eating through their inventories in the face of import difficulties.