Saudi Arabia: Aramco’s IPO Waits to Align With SABIC, Add Value

Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources inaugurates Modon’s new identity in Riyadh on October 7, 2018. (SPA)
Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources inaugurates Modon’s new identity in Riyadh on October 7, 2018. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia: Aramco’s IPO Waits to Align With SABIC, Add Value

Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources inaugurates Modon’s new identity in Riyadh on October 7, 2018. (SPA)
Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources inaugurates Modon’s new identity in Riyadh on October 7, 2018. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources Khalid al-Falih has attributed "some delays in Aramco's initial public offering to its aligning with SABIC along with adding to its value.”

He said this is likely to produce very impressive results on the market valuation of Saudi Aramco from which the Kingdom will enjoy significant benefits on various levels.

This came during the Minister’s inauguration of the new identity of Saudi Organization for Industrial Estates & Technology Zones (Modon) on Sunday along with the launching of a new phase of enabling the national industry and the advancement of the industrial sector in the Kingdom.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that negotiations between the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Aramco to buy the PIF’s share in SABIC are taking place.

This step will open up a great opportunity for integration in the hydrocarbon chain of production and exploration that can be done by Aramco and the refining sector, Falih noted.

He also pointed out that Aramco is one of the major companies in the refining sector that can integrate with the petrochemical sector.

“We are proud that SABIC is one of the most advanced and expanding companies in the world. Therefore, this will be a qualitative leap for the Saudi industry and for the integration of two key sectors," he stressed.

"Accordingly, there will be some delay in Aramco's IPO until the two companies are aligned and their value is added, which will have very impressive results on the market valuation of Aramco.”

SABIC will be more efficient and secure and investors will benefit from that, he said.

He revealed the approval on the establishment of new funds and banks, such as the Export-Import Bank (EX-IM Bank) to enable manufacturers in industrial cities to access the world markets as one of the targets through easy financing.

Through these banks and the new financing methods, the PIF will contribute to the transfer of the technique.

Regarding Modon’s new identity, Falih said he has launched a workshop with 33 government agencies working through the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program to promote the program, which is the most economically viable in achieving the Kingdom’s Vision 2030.

He explained that the program works on the integration among all energy sectors in their traditional types, renewable energy, atomic energy, supply chains and mining sector, including those currently being developed such as aluminum, copper, gold and phosphate, and new minerals that are explored and then manufactured.



Euro Zone Poised to Enter Trade Quagmire as Trump Wins

A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)
A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)
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Euro Zone Poised to Enter Trade Quagmire as Trump Wins

A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)
A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)

As Trump 2.0 becomes a reality, Europe is poised to enter a new geopolitical and trade quagmire with its biggest trading partner.

Donald Trump's victory may harm Europe's economy as proposed 10% US tariffs risk hitting European exports such as cars and chemicals, eroding Europe's GDP by up to 1.5% or about €260 billion.

Analysts warn of European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts, euro weakness, and a recession risk.

According to several economic analyses, there is broad agreement that Trump's proposed 10% universal tariff on all US imports may significantly disrupt European growth, intensify monetary policy divergence, and strain key trade-dependent sectors such as autos and chemicals.

The long-term effects on Europe's economic resilience could prove even more significant if tariffs lead to protracted trade conflicts, prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to respond with aggressive rate cuts to cushion the impact, according to Euronews.

Trump's proposed across-the-board tariff on imports, including those from Europe, could profoundly impact sectors such as cars and chemicals, which rely heavily on US exports.

Data from the European Commission shows that the European Union exported €502.3 billion in goods to the US in 2023, making up a fifth of all non-European Union exports.

European exports to the US are led by machinery and vehicles (€207.6 billion), chemicals (€137.4 billion), and other manufactured goods (€103.7 billion), which together comprise nearly 90% of the bloc's transatlantic exports.

ABN Amro analysts, including head of macro research Bill Diviney, warn that tariffs “would cause a collapse in exports to the US,” with trade-oriented economies such as Germany and the Netherlands likely to be hardest hit.

According to the Dutch bank, Trump's tariffs would shave approximately 1.5 percentage points off European growth, translating to a potential €260 bn economic loss based on Europe's estimated 2024 GDP of €17.4 tn.

Should Europe's growth falter under Trump's tariffs, the European Central Bank (ECB) may be compelled to respond aggressively, slashing rates to near zero by 2025.

In contrast, the US Federal Reserve may continue raising rates, leading to “one of the biggest and most sustained monetary policy divergences” between the ECB and the Fed since the euro's inception in 1999.

Dirk Schumacher, head of European macro research at Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking Germany, suggests that a 10% tariff increase could reduce GDP by approximately 0.5% in Germany, 0.3% in France, 0.4% in Italy, and 0.2% in Spain.

Schumacher warns that “the euro area could slide into recession in response to higher tariffs.”

According to Goldman Sachs' economists James Moberly and Sven Jari Stehn, the broad tariff would likely erode eurozone GDP by approximately 1%.

Goldman Sachs analysts project that a 1% GDP loss translates into a hit to earnings per share (EPS) for European firms by 6-7 percentage points, which would be sufficient to erase expected EPS growth for 2025.