Land Subsidence Threatens Iran

This frame grab from video taken on Jan. 8, 2019, shows fissure in the land caused by drought and excessive water pumping, in Malard, west of Tehran, Iran. (AP Photo)
This frame grab from video taken on Jan. 8, 2019, shows fissure in the land caused by drought and excessive water pumping, in Malard, west of Tehran, Iran. (AP Photo)
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Land Subsidence Threatens Iran

This frame grab from video taken on Jan. 8, 2019, shows fissure in the land caused by drought and excessive water pumping, in Malard, west of Tehran, Iran. (AP Photo)
This frame grab from video taken on Jan. 8, 2019, shows fissure in the land caused by drought and excessive water pumping, in Malard, west of Tehran, Iran. (AP Photo)

Fissures appear along roads while massive holes open up in the countryside, their gaping maws a visible sign from the air of something Iranian authorities now openly acknowledge: the area around Tehran is literally sinking.

Stressed by a 30-year drought and hollowed by excessive water pumping, the parched landscape around Iran's capital has begun to sink dramatically. Seen by satellite and on foot around the city, officials warn that what they call land subsidence poses a grave danger to a country where protests over water scarcity already have seen violence.

"Land subsidence is a destructive phenomenon," said Siavash Arabi, a measurement expert at Iran's cartography department. "Its impact may not be immediately felt like an earthquake, but as you can see, it can gradually cause destructive changes over time."

He said he can identify "destruction of farmland, the cracks of the earth's surface, damage to civilian areas in cities, wastewater lines, cracks in roads and damages to water and natural gas pipes."

Tehran, which sits 1,200 meters above sea level against the Alborz Mountains on a plateau, has rapidly grown over the last 100 years to a sprawling city of 13 million people in its metropolitan area.

All those people have put incredible pressure on water resources on a semi-arid plateau in a country that saw only 171 millimeters of rain last year. Over-reliance on ground aquifers has seen increasingly salty water pumped from below ground.

"Surface soil contains water and air. When you pump water from under the ground surface, you cause some empty space to be formed in the soil," Arabi told The Associated Press. "Gradually, the pressure from above causes the soil particles to stick together and this leads to sinking of the ground and formation of cracks."

Rain and snow to recharge the underground aquifers have been in short supply. Over the past decade, Iran has seen the most prolonged and severe drought in more than 30 years, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization. An estimated 97 percent of the country has faced some level of drought, Iran's Meteorological Organization says.

That has caused the sinkholes and fissures now seen around Tehran.

Iranian authorities say they have measured up to 22 centimeters of annual subsidence near the capital, while the normal range would be only as high as 3 centimeters per year.

Even higher numbers have been measured in other parts of the country. Some sinkholes formed in western Iran are as deep as 60 meters.

Those figures are close to those found in a study by scientists at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam previously discussed by the journal Nature and accepted by the journal Remote Sensing of Environment. Using satellite images between 2003 and 2017, the scientists estimate the western Tehran plain is sinking by 25 centimeters a year.

Either way, the numbers are alarming to experts.

"In European countries, even 4 millimeters of yearly subsidence is considered a crisis," Iranian environmental activist Mohammad Darvish said.

The sinking can be seen in Tehran's southern Yaftabad neighborhood, which sits close to farmland and water wells on the edge of the city. Cracks run down walls and below windows, and waterpipes have ruptured. Residents fear poorly built buildings may collapse.

The sinking also threatens vital infrastructure, like Tehran's International Airport. German scientists estimate that land under the airport is sinking by 5 centimeters a year.

Tehran's oil refinery, a key highway, automobile manufacturing plants and railroads also all sit on sinking ground, said Ali Beitollahi, a Ministry of Roads and Transportation official. Some 2 million people live in the area, he said.

Masoud Shafiee, head of Iran's cartography department, also acknowledged the danger.

"Rates (for subsidence) are very high and in many instances it's happening in densely populated areas," Shafiee told the AP. "It's happening near sensitive infrastructures like airports, which we consider a top priority."

Geopolitics play a role in Iran's water crisis. Since the country's 1979 revolution, Iran has sought to become self-sufficient across industries to thwart international sanctions. That has included agriculture and food production.

The problem, however, comes in inefficient water use on farms, which represents over 90 percent of the country's water usage, experts say.

Already, the drought and water crisis has fed into the sporadic unrest Iran has faced over the last year. In July, protests around Khorramshahr, some 650 kilometers southwest of Tehran, saw violence as residents complained of salty, muddy water coming out of their taps amid the yearslong drought.

The unrest there only compounds the wider unease felt across Iran as it faces an economic crisis sparked by President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw America from Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers.



Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Insists on Face-to-Face Talks with Putin in Istanbul 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy holds a joint press conference with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, in Prague, Czech Republic, May 5, 2025. (Reuters)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy holds a joint press conference with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, in Prague, Czech Republic, May 5, 2025. (Reuters)
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Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Insists on Face-to-Face Talks with Putin in Istanbul 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy holds a joint press conference with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, in Prague, Czech Republic, May 5, 2025. (Reuters)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy holds a joint press conference with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, in Prague, Czech Republic, May 5, 2025. (Reuters)

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will only attend talks on Ukraine if Russia's Vladimir Putin is also there, the Ukrainian leader's top aide said on Tuesday, challenging the Kremlin to show it is genuine about seeking peace.

US President Donald Trump has offered to attend Thursday's proposed meeting in Istanbul, which has become the focus of his attempts to end the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War Two. Putin has yet to say if he will take part.

Both Russia and Ukraine have sought to show they are working towards peace after Trump prioritized ending the war, but they have yet to agree any clear path.

Putin on Sunday proposed direct talks with Ukraine after ignoring a Ukrainian proposal for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Trump then publicly told Zelenskiy to accept.

"President Zelenskiy will not meet with any other Russian representative in Istanbul, except Putin," Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told Reuters.

His chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said Zelenskiy's trip to Türkiye showed Kyiv was ready for talks but repeated Ukraine's stance that any negotiations must come after a ceasefire.

"Our position is very principled and very strong," Yermak said during a visit to Copenhagen.

Moscow has not said if Putin will travel to Türkiye.

"We are committed to a serious search for ways of a long-term peaceful settlement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday but would not comment further on the talks.

Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, unleashing a war that has killed hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides. Most of Europe has rallied around Kyiv providing arms and financial aid, while Russia has turned to Iran and North Korea for support.

Trump has demanded the two nations end the war, threatening to walk away from efforts to broker a peace deal unless there are clear signs of progress soon.

TRUMP GOES TO ISTANBUL?

If Zelenskiy and Putin, who make no secret of their mutual contempt, were to meet on Thursday it would be their first face-to-face meeting since December 2019.

Trump, who is in Saudi Arabia, and later due in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar this week, unexpectedly offered on Monday to travel to Istanbul, which straddles the divide between Europe and Asia.

"I was thinking about actually flying over there. There's a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things can happen, but we've got to get it done," Trump said before leaving for Riyadh.

"Don't underestimate Thursday in Türkiye," he added.

Following the offer, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the "way forward for a ceasefire" in Ukraine with his Ukrainian, British, French, Polish, German and EU counterparts.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, held talks with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan.

FAR APART

Reuters reported last year that Putin was open to discussing a ceasefire with Trump, but that Moscow ruled out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO.

Ukraine has said it is ready for talks but a ceasefire is needed first, a position supported by its European allies.

Kyiv wants robust security guarantees as part of any peace deal and rejects a Russian proposal for restrictions on the size of its military. Territorial issues could be discussed once a ceasefire is in place, it says.

Putin has repeatedly referred to a 2022 deal which Russia and Ukraine negotiated shortly after the Russian invasion but never finalized.

Under the draft agreement, a copy of which Reuters has reviewed, Ukraine should agree to permanent neutrality in return for international security guarantees from the five permanent UN Security Council members: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States.

Ukraine and its European allies have told Russia that it would have to accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire from Monday or face new sanctions. The Kremlin replied, saying it would not respond to ultimatums.

France said on Monday European leaders, who met in Ukraine over the weekend, had asked the European Commission to put together new "massive" sanctions targeting Russia's oil and financial sector if Russia failed to agree a ceasefire.

Russia's forces control just under a fifth of Ukraine, including all of Crimea, almost all of Luhansk, and more than 70% of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, according to Russian estimates. It also controls a sliver of Kharkiv region.

Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the international affairs committee of the Federation Council, the upper house of Russia's parliament, told the Izvestia media outlet in remarks published on Tuesday that the talks between Moscow and Kyiv can move further than the 2022 negotiations.

"If the Ukrainian delegation shows up at these talks with a mandate to abandon any ultimatums and look for common ground, I am sure that we could move forward," he said.