Abu-Ghazaleh Warns of Global Economic Crisis in 2020

Talal Abu Ghazaleh, Chairman of Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAG Organization)
Talal Abu Ghazaleh, Chairman of Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAG Organization)
TT

Abu-Ghazaleh Warns of Global Economic Crisis in 2020

Talal Abu Ghazaleh, Chairman of Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAG Organization)
Talal Abu Ghazaleh, Chairman of Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAG Organization)

The next economic crisis in 2020 may begin in the United States and is expected to be worse than the 2008 global financial crisis and will result in increased unemployment, inflation and cost of living, predicts chairman of Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAG-Org).

Talal Abu-Ghazaleh believes that Arab countries should be fully prepared for a potential economic crisis and should not entirely rely on the US as a global economic crisis is expected to hit in 2020.

He explained the impact of the next expected crisis on the Arab states, saying it will depend on three factors: their reliance on the US economy, the availability of natural resources such as oil, and the level of productivity in the budget and its percentage to the GDP.

Abu-Ghazaleh advised Arab states to form teams of experts to overcome the crisis.

Signs of the upcoming crisis can be seen in several European countries, such as demonstrations and the difficult conditions Europeans are going through, he explained.

“The international public debt has reached 244 trillion US dollars, which is more than three times the size of the world economy.”

Abu-Ghazaleh explained that the only way for the US administration to overcome the crisis is by meeting with China to discuss trade sanctions and agree on managing the world’s economic matters.

He also called on the Arab states to increase communication with China at the economic, commercial and financial levels as a way to tackle the upcoming economic crises.

TAG-Org is one of the largest groups of professional services firms in the fields of accounting, audit, taxation, education, and training in Arab countries.

It operates out of more than 100 offices worldwide.



Oil Wavers as Trump's Colombia Sanctions Threat Rattles Markets

Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
TT

Oil Wavers as Trump's Colombia Sanctions Threat Rattles Markets

Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

*

Oil market momentum was kept in check on Monday as prices fluctuated in and out of negative territory, with traders on edge despite the US pulling back from initial sanctions threats against Colombia, reducing immediate concern over oil supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures fell 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.14 a barrel by 1200 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $74.27, down 39 cents, or 0.5%.

Both benchmarks oscillated between moderate gains and losses in early trading.

The US swiftly reversed plans to impose sanctions and tariffs on Colombia after the South American nation agreed to accept deported migrants from the United States, the White House said late on Sunday, Reuters reported.

Colombia last year sent about 41% of its seaborne crude exports to the US, data from analytics firm Kpler shows.

"Even if the sanctions didn't take place, this still creates nervousness that Trump will bully whoever needs to be bullied to get his way," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

"Fundamentally, the market is surprisingly tight," said Schieldrop, referring to time spreads showing that the price of crude oil for quicker delivery is rising.

Gains were limited by Trump's repeated call on Friday for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil prices to hurt oil-rich Russia's finances and help to end to the war in Ukraine.

"One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and drop the price of oil ... That war will stop right away," Trump said.

Trump has also threatened to hit Russia "and other participating countries" with taxes, tariffs and sanctions if a deal to end the war in Ukraine is not struck soon.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he and Trump should meet to talk about the Ukraine war and energy prices.

"They are positioning for negotiations," said John Driscoll at Singapore-based consultancy JTD Energy, adding that this creates volatility in oil markets.

He added that oil markets are probably skewed a little bit to the downside, with Trump looking to boost US output and try to secure overseas markets for US crude.

"He's going to want to muscle into some of the OPEC market share; so in that sense he's kind of a competitor," Driscoll said.

However, OPEC and its allies including Russia have yet to react to Trump's call, with OPEC+ delegates pointing to a plan already in place to start raising oil output from April.

Both oil benchmarks registered their first weekly decline in five weeks on easing concern last week over potential supply disruptions resulting from the latest sanctions on Russia.

Goldman Sachs analysts said they do not expect a big hit to Russian production because higher freight rates have encouraged non-sanctioned ships to move Russian oil while the deepening discount on the affected Russian ESPO grade attracts price-sensitive buyers.

Still, JP Morgan analysts said some risk premium is justified given that nearly 20% of the global Aframax fleet currently faces sanctions.

"The application of sanctions on the Russian energy sector as leverage in future negotiations could go either way, indicating that a zero risk premium is not appropriate," they added in a note.

Elsewhere, Chinese manufacturing data on Monday was weaker than expected, adding fresh concerns over energy demand.