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World Bank Expects Recovery of Iraq, Yemen Economy... Growth in Egypt

World Bank Expects Recovery of Iraq, Yemen Economy... Growth in Egypt
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World Bank Expects Recovery of Iraq, Yemen Economy... Growth in Egypt

World Bank Expects Recovery of Iraq, Yemen Economy... Growth in Egypt

The World Bank expected Iraq and Yemen’s economies to witness a remarkable recovery in the coming period.

Following the end of the war and the formation of a new government, Iraq is expected to grow at 2.8 percent in 2019 after a contraction of 1.7 percent in 2017 and a modest recovery of 0.6 percent in 2018, the organization said in its (Middle East and North Africa) MENA Economic Update report.

“Spending on reconstruction could potentially boost the country’s economy in the years ahead,” the report added.

Its economists expect a rapid recovery in Yemen in a potential scenario of contained violence although the risks remain high.

“Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, embodied in its recently announced expansionary budget for 2019, aims to boost non-oil activity and enhance economic diversification partly by increasing capital expenditures,” according to the report.

It said growth in GCC economies is expected to reach 2.1 percent in 2019, up by 0.1 percent from 2018.

The WB partly and indirectly attributed the revival of growth to policies that reduced the GCC’s reliance on oil revenues in addition to UAE’s investments in infrastructure in preparation to host Expo 2020.

Iran is expected to contract sharply, the report noted, explaining that its real GDP is expected to have another recessionary year with -3.8 percent growth in 2019 after a 1.6 percent contraction in 2018, as oil output falls in part due to the US sanctions.

“Oil importers, as a group, are expected to grow four percent in 2019, slightly up from a 3.8 percent growth in 2018, when tourists flocked back to the region, especially to Egypt and Tunisia.”

“The uptick in tourism helped to modestly reduce trade imbalances and current account deficits,” the report explained.

The World Bank anticipates that Egypt will be one of the top performers among MENA oil importers, with a growth rate forecast at 5.5 percent for 2019, the strongest since 2008.

“It has been driven by rising natural gas production, revitalized tourism, and higher government investment spending.”

“Because rising revenues from VAT and income taxes have outpaced expenditures and subsidies have been cut several times, the fiscal deficit in Egypt has been narrowing for the past two years,” the report stressed.

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Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
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Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)

Severe wildfire seasons are increasingly hurting western Canada's lucrative tourism industry, with some visitors beginning to avoid the busy late-summer months due to concerns about uncontrolled blazes, smoke-filled skies and road closures.

After a scorching start to July, nearly 600 wildfires are now ablaze across British Columbia and Alberta, including a huge fire that this week devastated the picturesque tourist town of Jasper in the Canadian Rockies.

Dozens of communities, including popular holiday spots in British Columbia's Kootenay region, are under evacuation orders and several highways are closed.

This year's surge in wildfire activity comes after Canada endured its worst-ever year for wildfires in 2023, when more than 15 million hectares (37 million acres) burned, including parts of the city of West Kelowna in the heart of British Columbia's wine region.

Ellen Walker-Matthews, head of the Thompson Okanagan Tourism Association, said the industry was seeing a lot more last-minute travel decisions instead of booking in advance.

"It's a huge blow. July and August are traditionally the busiest months in the region," said Walker-Matthews, adding that while her region has been relatively unscathed by wildfires this summer, some visitors are choosing to avoid interior British Columbia altogether.

The members of the British Columbia Lodging and Campgrounds Association are reporting a 5-15% drop in bookings from a year ago, with the biggest declines coming from the hotter Okanagan and Cariboo regions, said Joss Penny, who heads the association.

"The concern is that this is something we have to live with and we have it every year now," said Penny.

Although wildfires in Canada's forests are natural and common, scientists say drier, hotter conditions fueled by climate change are leading to more volatile and frequent blazes.

'SMOKEY SKIES'

Some events, like the Salmon Arm Roots and Blues Festival, usually held in August, have now been rescheduled to earlier in the summer to avoid what is now seen as peak smoke season. The festival, which was cancelled last year due to nearby wildfires, was this year moved to July to benefit from "less smokey skies."

Wildfires and extreme climatic events are prompting tourists to "change their plans not just temporarily, but permanently," said Elizabeth Halpenny, a tourism researcher and professor at the University of Alberta, noting that seasonal workers in the sector are often the hardest hit as they have few protections during a bad season or amid a cataclysmic fire.

Tourism contributed C$7.2 billion to the British Columbia economy in 2022, and C$9.9 billion to Alberta in 2023, according to the latest government data.

Jasper National Park is one of Canada's premier tourist destinations, with more than 2 million visitors a year flocking to see its pristine mountain landscapes and abundant wildlife, including grizzly bears, moose and elk.

Kelly Torrens, vice-president of product at international tour company Kensington Tours, described western Canada as a bucket-list destination. But the company now has 49 trips that were supposed to pass through Jasper this season in limbo. Six others were forced to evacuate the park when the fire hit.

Parks Canada has cancelled all camping reservations within Jasper National Park until Aug. 6 and with potentially 50% of the town's structures destroyed by fire, the cleanup and rebuild could take years.

Halpenny is among those hedging their bets.

"I've booked a campsite stay in the mountain parks but at the same time, I booked a campsite out on the prairie somewhere and that's my backup plan because I don't want to miss out on my vacation with my family."