World Bank Deputy Chief Economist: Vision 2030 Diversified Saudi Income Sources

Daniel Lederman, Deputy Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank Group (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Daniel Lederman, Deputy Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank Group (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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World Bank Deputy Chief Economist: Vision 2030 Diversified Saudi Income Sources

Daniel Lederman, Deputy Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank Group (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Daniel Lederman, Deputy Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank Group (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The World Bank has issued its annual report on economic prospects in this region, which contained highly optimistic forecasts, especially for Iraq and Yemen, and other small countries such as Djibouti.

The report came at a time when the Middle East is experiencing economic challenges some of which are caused by the political situation, others by the failure of certain government policies.
 
Asharq Al-Awsat interviewed Daniel Lederman, Deputy Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank Group, to know more about the bases of the World Bank’s forecast and other economic issues.
 
Asked about Saudi Arabia’s future in light of the ongoing economic reforms under Vision 2030, Lederman stressed that the strategy had contributed significantly to the diversification of sources of revenues in the Saudi economy.

He added that the most important of these reforms was reducing dependence on oil as a primary source of income.
 
He noted, on the other hand, that structural changes that are being implemented in the Kingdom's economy and the rest of the GCC countries, which are mainly aimed at reducing dependence on oil as a main source of income, have led to a decline in their share of world oil exports, making the United States the largest oil producer in the world. This has also led to a decline in the price control of oil-exporting countries, according to Lederman.
 
As for the difficulty to make oil price forecasts, in the wake of the US sanctions on Iran and the recent developments in Venezuela, the World Bank official admitted that it was hard for any financial institution to make accurate predictions about the period of time in which oil prices are stabilized, given the reasons mentioned above.
 
In this regard, he noted that the World Bank was cautious in setting its expectations on oil prices for the coming years.

However, he underlined that the dynamics of the oil market were closely related to measuring the rise in price per barrel, so that it does not exceed a certain limit. Therefore, it is difficult at present to see a jump in oil prices, he stressed.
 
Commenting on the World Bank’s positive expectations on Iraq, Lederman said he expected the country to achieve significant economic growth in the coming period, depending on the efficiency of the Iraqi government’s economic reforms and the time it takes to implement them.
 
“The new government represents an opportunity to give a strong boost to the restructuring of the Iraqi economy, enabling it to achieve a growth rate of up to 8 percent, and we expect it to happen in 2020. Of course, this will depend heavily on the political situation and the start of the reconstruction of Iraq,” he stated.
 
The biggest challenge facing the Iraqi economy is the implementation of structural reforms that can create sustainable sources of income and reduce dependency on foreign aid, according to Lederman.
 
On Yemen, the World Bank official emphasized that the economic returns from peace would be substantial and immediate, especially if there is a good organization that would take advantage of peace opportunities.

On the other hand, he noted that the World Bank was cautious about expectations for the recovery of the Yemeni economy, which depends on containing violence and ending the conflict in this region.

“We are ready to help with the smart reconstruction of Yemen; we are optimistic about what can be achieved for the Yemeni economy in the event of peace,” he noted.
 
Asked about reforms undertaken by Cairo, Lederman said the current reforms were wide and comprehensive, adding that the Egyptian government should currently move from the reform phase to the stage of “increasing transparency” with the public. In Lebanon, he stressed that the biggest challenge facing the government was the increase of public debt.
 
On a different note, Asharq Al-Awsat asked Lederman about the future of employment in the region in light of the great progress achieved in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI).

The World Bank is “cautiously optimistic” about the impact of Artificial Intelligence on employment in the region for two reasons, he said.

“First, he highlighted a steady growth in the young population, adding that 300 million jobs were expected to be created for young people by 2050. Second, he stressed that the Middle East had the largest development of educational arena, with a highly educated and skilled labor.
 
In order to secure the future of employment in this region, structural reforms in the economy should be initiated and the work systems should be reformed. The future of the economy in this region will be different from that of the past, Lederman emphasized.



UN Coordinator in Syria: Optimistic About Reconstruction if Transition Succeeds

UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Syria Adam Abdelmoula (Asharq Al-Awsat)
UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Syria Adam Abdelmoula (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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UN Coordinator in Syria: Optimistic About Reconstruction if Transition Succeeds

UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Syria Adam Abdelmoula (Asharq Al-Awsat)
UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Syria Adam Abdelmoula (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Since 2012, the United Nations Resident Coordinator's developmental role in Syria has been put on hold by the UN. However, the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad’s regime has revived this role.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Adam Abdelmoula, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Syria, outlined plans for reconstruction in partnership with the new government in Damascus.

Abdelmoula expressed “great optimism” about Syria’s rebuilding but stressed that the key to rapid recovery is the “success of the transition.”

He explained that this means the transitional period—until a new constitution is agreed upon and an elected government is formed—must be secure and supported by consensus among all Syrians.

Additionally, momentum is building for Syria’s reconstruction, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries proposing an international donor conference next spring to raise funds.

Abdelmoula said the UN is consulting with the new Syrian administration to prepare projects and cost estimates for the event.

The UN is preparing aid and technical support for Syria’s new administration, along with a development plan focusing on rebuilding infrastructure, restoring electricity, reviving health services, and supporting agriculture and irrigation to boost the economy.

“We’ve informed the new administration of our work through a letter sent to the foreign minister,” said Abdelmoula.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the UN’s “early recovery strategy,” launched last November, is still in place, though its fund has yet to be registered with the trust fund office in New York.

He promised to prioritize its registration and said: “When reconstruction begins in Syria, we will work to establish a dedicated reconstruction fund.”

As for relying on donors for rebuilding Syria, Abdelmoula said: “The UN doesn’t have the billions of dollars needed, but lessons from similar crises show the importance of focusing on strategic priorities, especially rebuilding the economic foundations.”

Abdelmoula noted that UN agencies can secure funding from donors who support development activities in various countries, a process that had been stalled in Syria for over a decade.

“Since the fall of the Syrian regime, many countries, particularly Arab and neighboring ones, have provided significant aid, and this is expected to increase,” he said.

“There are also positive signals from donors, especially Europeans, about boosting humanitarian aid, including continuing the annual Brussels Conference to support Syria,” added Abdelmoula.

He revealed that the mission has learned the European Union will resume hosting the conference this year, despite the fall of Assad’s regime.

The UN official addressed Syria’s sanctions, stating that those harming the Syrian people should be lifted.

He noted that the recent Riyadh meeting showed a strong intention from key international players to ease or fully lift the sanctions.

Abdelmoula pointed out the US decision to suspend some sanctions for six months and mentioned an upcoming EU foreign ministers' meeting to discuss either lifting or easing sanctions to support Syria’s economy, humanitarian aid, banking, and market access.

He explained that some sanctions are imposed by countries like the US, Germany, France, and the UK, which are discussing the best way forward. However, he said fully lifting sanctions may take time due to laws like the US Caesar Act.

Abdelmoula stressed that efforts should focus on reducing the impact of sanctions under the Caesar Act and working to pass new legislation to cancel it. He said this should also apply to sanctions from other countries in the form of laws.

He explained that lifting sanctions would make it easier for the UN and help both the Syrian government and people. A direct benefit would be Syria’s ability to access direct funding, concessional loans from international funds and the World Bank, and grants.

Abdelmoula explained that the UN’s humanitarian work in Syria focuses on helping people in need, regardless of which political group controls the area.

“Our efforts have included people in regions outside the former regime's control in northwestern and northeastern Syria,” he said.

As the UN Resident Coordinator, Abdelmoula represents the UN in the country.

“The government recognized until December 8 was Bashar al-Assad’s, which is why my credentials were sent to it, as is the usual practice,” he noted.

Abdelmoula also pointed out that the UN’s development work in Syria was halted since 2012 due to a UN decision.

“After the regime fell, we announced that we would resume our development work,” he affirmed.