16 Years after his Overthrow, Saddam Still Looms Large over Iraq

A US soldier watches as a statue of Iraq's President Saddam Hussein falls in central Baghdad, Iraq April 9, 2003. (Reuters)
A US soldier watches as a statue of Iraq's President Saddam Hussein falls in central Baghdad, Iraq April 9, 2003. (Reuters)
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16 Years after his Overthrow, Saddam Still Looms Large over Iraq

A US soldier watches as a statue of Iraq's President Saddam Hussein falls in central Baghdad, Iraq April 9, 2003. (Reuters)
A US soldier watches as a statue of Iraq's President Saddam Hussein falls in central Baghdad, Iraq April 9, 2003. (Reuters)

Tuesday marked the 16th anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq that ended the 35-year rule of the Baath party and overthrew its one leader Saddam Hussein.

American troops arrested Saddam in December later that year after it discovered his hideout in the Salaheddine province. He was turned over to the new Iraqi authorities that put him on trial for crimes against humanity. He was executed four years later in January 2007.

Despite the long years that have passed since the collapse of his regime and execution, Saddam’s shadow still looms large over the lives of Iraqis, whether in everyday life or in politics. The people remain divided over assessing the Baath era and Saddam’s dictatorship when compared to the new era of “democracy” that has emerged from their ashes.

Debate has raged on whether April 9, the day the former regime collapsed, should be considered a national holiday or a day to mark the beginning of occupation. In the early years after the overthrow, ruling authorities used to declare the day a national holiday. The current government of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi and his predecessors Haidar al-Abadi and Nuri al-Maliki did not.

The debate on whether Iraq was better off under Saddam’s regime or under the current rule rages on. Some sides that used to oppose him have shifted their stance and said in recent days that their lives were better under the former regime.

MP and former opponent Faiq al-Sheikh Ali openly praised Saddam and his predecessor Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr, saying that they had distributed residential land on the people for free throughout their years in power.

“The new thieves that the US has chosen from the streets have not done so,” he remarked.

Some two months ago, a poet from the South recited a popular poem in praise of Saddam’s era and which criticized the current regime. The incident prompted local authorities to arrest him on charges of promoting Saddam’s rule, which is considered a crime by the Accountability and Justice Act.

The growing support for the Saddam era among various political and popular circles has prompted several political powers to activate the act and adopt strict measures against advocates of the former Baath regime.

The majority of those voicing support for the Saddam years are only doing so as an indirect way to highlight the current regime’s corruption, mismanagement and sectarianism that it has been cementing for over a decade and a half in power. Their praise for Saddam does not necessarily mean that he was a model to be followed.

This was perhaps best exemplified by an article released by Sadrist leader Moqtada al-Sadr on the anniversary of the US invasion. Sadr, whose father Ayatollah Mohammed Sadeq was assassinated by the Saddam regime in 1999, said that 16 years after the fall of the Baath regime, the “people are still marginalized.”

“Despite 16 years since the collapse of the dictator, Iraq is still suffering from the horrors of war, poverty, corruption, oppression and degradation. Ignorance, oppression of liberties and abuse of religion have become rampant,” he added.

“Sixteen years and the Baath ideology still grips those in power. Sectarianism still eats away at the foundations of the state to, unfortunately, spread among the people.”

“Sixteen years and Iraq is still a stranger among its surroundings and neighbors as neither do its people want to be open to others and nor does their government seek to do so. Sixteen years and the Iraqi people bow their heads in shame over the corruption of their government. Sixteen years and the militias are still controlling the will of the government and the lives of the people,” Sadr lamented.

Abadi meanwhile, said that Iraq was in need of a “reassessment” of the political process and structure of the state in order to introduce reform. In a statement Tuesday, he said: “All political parties and powers must assume their national historic responsibilities towards the state and its fate.”

Debate in Iraq has even raged about the fate of Saddam’s numerous presidential palaces. The people have directed severe criticism against authorities for their neglect of these palaces, which were supposed to be transformed into recreational and tourist destinations that are a reminder of the former regime.

MP Ali al-Bdeiri said that all countries, except for Iraq, invest in landmarks that are reminders of previous regimes.



The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon's Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.

The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers.

So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hezbollah, which it accuses of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed, The AP reported.

Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.

Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 — the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than 1 million Lebanese people were displaced.

Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.

Here’s a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.

What does the ceasefire agreement say? The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.

The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — activities that might eventually be expanded to the rest of Lebanon, although it is not explicit in the ceasefire agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented? Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.

Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon - Khiam and Shamaa. They remain in some 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024.

The complaint said the attacks have hindered the Lebanese army's efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.

Until Israel hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israeli troops have been destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and underground tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian houses and infrastructure.

What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days? Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.

Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army's control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.

Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the militant group might return to attacking them. But Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said Wednesday that, for now, the group is holding off to give the Lebanese state a chance to "take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn't fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.