Qamishli Locals Fear Return of Syrian Regime Control
The Qamishli town center on Sunday. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
At first glance, it seems as though life has returned to normal in the Kurdish-run northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli. Even though the wind-down of anti-ISIS operations last month and Turkey's daily threats of invasion have helped dull obvious tensions, fears of future violence have continued to reemerge with every regime statement communicating Damascus’ determination to regain control over all Syrian territory.
Shavan, 56, is a café owner working a few blocks down from pro-regime barracks. He reports on his clients being ridden with anxiety over the East Euphrates region soon descending into chaos.
In a faint whisper as regime tanks and convoys drive by, Shavan said: “We need to find a way to avoid more violence in our already war-ravaged country, a military solution will raze everything to the ground.”
Qamishli is currently being run by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have established the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.
“Yes, I worry about the fate of the region. No one knows what’s coming next, and I am frankly afraid for my family and work. The Kurds must unite and determine their own future,” Seiban, one of Shavan’s workers, said.
Sarkhaboun, a 42-year-old local who owns a money exchange and transfer shop, noted that regime official’s renewed aggressive rhetoric has driven residents to switch their savings to foreign currencies.
“Fearing that it will come down to displacement, locals have taken the preemptive measure to switch currencies,” Sarkhaboun explained.
State civil bureaus are still open in Qamishli, as well as its only airport.
Schools, however, are split among those which adopted the Damascus-based regime’s curriculum and others who opted for the SDF’s academic curricula.
Regime forces’ pull-out from a number of areas by the end of 2012 gave Kurds, who make up 15 percent of the population, the opportunity to establish and strengthen their own administrations in the northeastern regions.
As a key power in Syria, the SDF was partnered with the US-led international coalition in the fight against the ISIS terror group.
The SDF and the regime, headed by Bashar Assad, have been held last year a series of meetings to shape the future of territories under Kurdish autonomous rule. Should a SDF-regime arrangement fall into place it would mean the reunification of the two largest areas in a war-torn country. However, two other swathes of land in the north and west will remain under the control of the opposition and Turkey-backed extremist opposition factions.
Saudi Arabia launched its Vision 2030 in 2016. (AP)
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Arab Gulf in 25 Years: Prosperity in a Region on Fire
Saudi Arabia launched its Vision 2030 in 2016. (AP)
Dr. Ibrahim Al-Othaimin*
I like to refer to Henry Kissinger in summing up the reality experienced in the region over the past quarter century. In his book, “World Order: Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History”, the former US secretary of state said “the Middle East is caught in a confrontation akin to—but broader than—Europe’s pre-Westphalian wars of religion. Domestic and international conflicts reinforce each other. Political, sectarian, tribal, territorial, ideological, and traditional national-interest disputes merge.”
The wars, he added, were caused by the collapse of the state and their transformation into fertile ground for terrorism and weapons smuggling. The collapse will subsequently lead to the breakup of the regional and world orders.
The Arab region witnessed unprecedented developments in the past 25 years that have altered its features and impacted the structure of its regional order. The Arab Gulf countries were at the heart of these developments. Despite the regional and international threats, they managed to maintain their internal stability and consolidate their pivotal role in achieving regional balance, underscoring their position as the cornerstone of security and stability in the region.
The September 11, 2001, attacks changed the shape of the world. (Reuters file)
First wars of the 21st Century
The September 11, 2001, attacks marked the beginning of the first wars of the 21st Century that would go on to change global security equations. They would also lead to massive pressure on the region by the terrorist al-Qaeda organization. The developments were a real turning point in global counter-terrorism efforts.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf were victims of a series of terrorist attacks in the past decades that targeted their security and stability. The worst of the attacks targeted a refinery in the city of Yanbu. It was carried out by Mustafa al-Ansari, an al-Qaeda member who had taken part in fighting in Afghanistan and Somalia. Another attack targeted Halliburton offices in the city of Khobar.
The Gulf countries responded to these challenges by taking firm counter-terrorism measures and launching efforts to dry their sources of funding. In 2002, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries approved a joint security strategy to combat terrorism.
In 2004, Gulf countries signed a counter-terrorism agreement during a meeting of interior ministers in Kuwait. The agreements established a legal framework for GCC efforts to bolster coordination between their members. In 2006, they set up a permanent security committee tasked with combating terror. The committee meets regularly to address terrorism-related issues and to bolster joint security cooperation.
The 2003 US invasion of Iraq was one the landmark moments in the war on terror. It forever changed the shape of the region, paving the way for a new chapter of unrest. The toppling of Saddam Hussein’s regime led to security vacuum that gave way for sectarian divisions and increased Iran’s influence, creating instability in the region.
Even though the Gulf countries opposed the invasion and stressed the need to respect international laws, they found themselves having to confront its fallout. On the political level, they expressed their concern over Iran’s growing influences and intensified their efforts to back Iraq’s unity, stability, sovereignty and independence. They supported the political process that was led by the UN, including holding legislative elections and the ratification of a new constitution.
On the security level, the Gulf countries sought to bolster their defense capabilities, intensify intelligence cooperation and boost security partnerships with the US to counter Iran's influence.
A US soldier covers a Saddam Hussein statue with an American flag in Baghdad on April 5, 2003. (AFP)
Major collapses
The region was soon swept by the 2011 so-called “Arab Spring” protests. The Gulf was again put to the test of maintaining its internal security and stability amid the major collapses of regimes and rulers across the region, starting with Tunisia, then Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen.
These developments led to the collapse of political systems and the fragmentation of the countries’ social and political structures. Chaos reigned, leading to unrest and protests, which were fertile ground for the emergence of terrorist groups and foreign meddling that seek their interests at the expense of regional stability.
The Gulf countries feared that these changes would lead to the spread of so-called political Islamist ideology in the Arab world. They approached the “Arab Spring” from a deep strategic view and with total awareness of the challenges at hand. This allowed them to take calculated steps that preserved their internal stability and regional roles. The countries also worked on consolidating internal unity and listened to the demands of the people to ensure that stability is maintained.
On the regional level, the Gulf contained the impact of the crises through supporting allied countries that were affected by the unrest. They also intervened directly in some countries, such as Yemen and Bahrain, to preserve stability and avert the spread of chaos.
After more than a decade since the “Arab Spring” developments, their impact is still very much felt to this day in several countries in the region. Throughout, the Gulf countries managed to maintain their stability and present themselves as a regional force that can help in confronting chaos and unrest.
The crises in Gaza and Lebanon have topped the concerns of Gulf countries. (SPA)
COVID-19
No sooner had the region caught its breath after the unrest than it was confronted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The world was faced with an unprecedented threat that helped reshape health and economic priorities and left a lasting impact on various levels.
The Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, handled the crisis with extraordinary skill. From the very first moment the virus emerged, the Kingdom took firm measures and offered healthcare to everyone without exception. It provided free treatment, expanded its healthcare sector and rapidly launched vaccination campaigns that were commended by international organizations.
Despite the pandemic’s impact on the global economy and oil prices, the Gulf countries’ preemptive long-term plans and strategies, which called for easing reliance on oil, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, allowed them to weather the storm. The Gulf countries showed vigilant leadership and an exceptional ability to adapt during the pandemic, allowing them to protect their people and preserve their economic and social stability.
Prosperity amid regional tumult
The region is now confronted with a new wave of escalation, especially amid the war on Gaza and the possibility that the conflict may spread in the Middle East. It also has to contend with the fallout of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.
Amid these changes, the Gulf countries have again proven their ability to adapt by presenting effective diplomatic initiatives and deepening international coordination with the aim of consolidating stability in the region.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the war on Gaza remain a top priority. The Gulf countries have repeatedly called for ending the conflict. They have backed international and regional efforts to reach a peaceful resolution based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative and implementing the two-state solution.
In Lebanon, as tensions rise with Hezbollah, the Gulf countries have continued to support efforts that would bolster Lebanon’s sovereignty and stability through international coordination aimed at the implementation of UN Security Council resolution 1701.
The Gulf region is also preparing to deal with post-Assad Syria, hoping to help in the country’s reconstruction to establish it as a stable state that shuns Iranian meddling. The goal demands critical coordination with regional and international partners to ensure that stability is restored to Damascus and the entire region.
*Dr. Al-Othaimin is a researcher in foreign relations.
