Exclusive - Russia and the Arabs: Ideology and Interests

A general view of Moscow. (Reuters)
A general view of Moscow. (Reuters)
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Exclusive - Russia and the Arabs: Ideology and Interests

A general view of Moscow. (Reuters)
A general view of Moscow. (Reuters)

Russia took some two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union in order to reshape its policy towards the Arab world. It has succeeded in marketing itself to appeal to several Arab interests and alliances, making it appear as if Moscow adopts different policies with different Arab countries.

The ideological considerations that dominated Soviet-Arab ties between the 1920s and 90s disappeared with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Prior to the Soviet rise, Czarist Russia sought to exploit the weaknesses of the Ottoman Empire, which dominated vast parts of the Arab world. It advanced towards the Balkans, Crimea and the Caucasus by waging direct wars or supporting local uprisings against the Ottoman rulers. It backed the rebellion led by Ali Bey al-Kabir, the governor of Egypt, and his alliance with Zahir al-Umar in Palestine. This led to the Russian navy’s bombardment of Beirut, which was held by the Turks, and its brief occupation in 1773. Russia also established several religious schools and monasteries in the holy land in Palestine.

The Soviets ended such policies because the Bolsheviks were marginally interested in the Arab world. This changed after World War II and the emergence of the Middle East as an important arena to compete with the West during the Cold War. The Soviets therefore, supported national liberation movements, which were called “progressive regimes” that opposed and rose up against colonialization.

Ideology was not the only factor that shaped Soviet policy in the region. It supported progressive movements, while also waging a fierce war against the United States and its allies to remain in the Middle East. It scored victories by backing Gamal Abdel Nasser and dispatched troops to the region during the 1967 war to support Arab allies. Russia ignored at the time the oppressive practices against Communist Arabs, who were supposed to be Moscow’s natural allies. Russia, instead, opted to prioritize its geo-strategic interests.

The winds shifted in the Middle East, however, when Anwar al-Sadat expelled the Soviets in 1972 and when Hafez Assad adopted a policy of openness to the West in Syria, breaking away from his leftist predecessor Salah Jadid. The Gulf states, none of which had diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union, were also on the rise.

Relations between Russia and the Arabs witnessed a lull in the 1990s when Moscow was still reeling from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Its policies during this time focused on cementing Russian security throughout Eurasian territories. It also focused on establishing allies with former Soviet republics, China, as a rising economic power, and Europe, with which it enjoys historic ties.

In the early 2010s, the Arab world again returned to Russia’s attention. The region witnessed relative calm in the 1990s, which preceded the turbulence that kicked off with the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the subsequent Arab revolts.

Europe, meanwhile, continued to warily eye Russia, stoking tensions with it over its insistence to deploy American rockets and support whom Russia perceived as enemies in Ukraine, Georgia and other countries. Things came to a head with Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the repercussions of which were felt in the Middle East when Moscow intervened militarily in Syria to prop up the regime of Bashar Assad against the local uprising.

It was believed that Russia’s intervention would completely wreck relations between it and Arab countries that support the Syrian opposition. Russian diplomacy, however, succeeded in shifting Arab attention towards issues that concern them both, such as energy. Russia has, throughout this period, maintained its policy on sensitive issues that concern Arabs, such as the Palestinian cause.

Pragmatism, therefore, dominated Russian-Arab relations and both parties succeeded in averting a clash by adopting a list of priorities, although not ideal, that reflects the balance of power on the ground.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.