Strait of Hormuz: Key Waterway Under Pressure

Strait of Hormuz: Key Waterway Under Pressure
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Strait of Hormuz: Key Waterway Under Pressure

Strait of Hormuz: Key Waterway Under Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz, located in the area where Iran shot down a US military drone, is a strategically important waterway for the world's oil transits, which lies at the heart of regional tensions.

Iran warned on Friday it would "decisively defend its territory" against eventual US retaliation, while the airlines KLM, Lufthansa, Malaysia Airlines, Qantas and Singapore Airlines said they were suspending flights over the strait.

Some background:

The Strait of Hormuz links the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and is situated between Iran and Oman.

It is vulnerable due to its narrowness -- some 50 kilometers (30 miles) -- and its depth of no more than 60 meters (200 feet).

The corridor is dotted with sparsely inhabited or desert islands, which are strategically important, notably the Iranian islands of Hormuz, Qeshm, and Larak.

The strait is a vital corridor connecting the petroleum-rich states of the Middle East with markets in Asia, Europe, North America and elsewhere.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2018 nearly 21 million barrels of crude a day transited the strait.

That represents around 21 percent of world oil consumption and one-third of total global seaborne oil transit.

A quarter of global liquefied natural gas trade also transited Hormuz, the EIA said.

Around 76 percent of the crude transiting the strait was destined last year for Asia, mainly China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have established a network of pipelines that can use alternative routes, they only allow the export of limited amounts -- around three million barrels a day in 2018, with a total capacity of 6.8 million.

These pipelines too are vulnerable, as shown by the attack on a Saudi pipeline in May by Yemeni insurgents.

Recent attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and the shooting down of the US drone by Iran, have raised the prospect of significant disruptions to shipping and destabilization of the world oil market: oil prices soared more than six percent Thursday in New York.

For consumer countries it would be difficult to find an alternative in volume and quality terms to Gulf crude. So-called light crude produced by the United States is not a substitute for the Middle East's heavy crude.

The United States, the world's largest global crude oil producer and exporter, imported around 1.4 million barrels per day of crude which had transited the Strait of Hormuz, seven percent of its consumption.

Tehran repeatedly criticizes the presence of foreign powers in the region, notably the US Fifth Fleet stationed in Bahrain, and it has regularly threatened to close the strait if it comes under attack.

One of the major disruptions to oil transit came in 1984 during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988) when more than 500 vessels were destroyed or damaged in the so-called "Tanker War".

In April 2015 the Revolutionary Guards boarded and took into custody in the strait a container ship flying the flag of the Marshall Islands.

The following month Revolutionary Guard sailors fired warning shots in an apparent bid to intercept a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf.

Stoked by the US withdrawal in May 2018 from the landmark nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, and the reimposition of heavy US sanctions on Tehran, tensions have recently escalated in the Gulf region.

Washington has blamed sabotage and attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf in May and June on Tehran.



Kurdish-Turkish Settlement: Shaping a New Middle East

Tulay Hatimogulları speaks at a press conference. Asharq Al-Awsat file photo
Tulay Hatimogulları speaks at a press conference. Asharq Al-Awsat file photo
TT
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Kurdish-Turkish Settlement: Shaping a New Middle East

Tulay Hatimogulları speaks at a press conference. Asharq Al-Awsat file photo
Tulay Hatimogulları speaks at a press conference. Asharq Al-Awsat file photo

A string of pivotal developments in recent months has forged new and unprecedented dynamics - mainly related to the Kurdish cause - across the region.

The collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8 shifted the calculations of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), pushing them to break their isolation from Iraqi Kurdish factions.

Simultaneously, an overture by Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan, who called for the disarmament of his group, opened communication channels between Türkiye’s Kurds and their counterparts in Iraq and Syria.

At the heart of this political transformation is Tulay Hatimogulları, co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM). A leftist Turkish politician of Arab Alawite origin, she embodies the complex identities of the Levant and its interconnected communities.

With her modest charisma and approachable style, Hatimogulları rarely turns down a request for a photo or a chat from her Kurdish supporters. An Asharq Al-Awsat correspondent met her in Diyarbakir—known to Kurds as Amed—shortly after her arrival from Ankara.

She was quick to tell them, in fluent Arabic, that she hails from Iskenderun, a region that was part of the autonomous Syrian district of Alexandretta under French control from 1921 until its controversial annexation by Türkiye in 1939, following a disputed referendum and the displacement of many of its original inhabitants.

Hatimogulları comes from a family of Arab Alawites who remained in the area. Today, she stands out as one of the few Turkish politicians capable of mediating between Ankara and the PKK at what many view as a potentially historic moment.

On February 27, Ocalan, who is serving a life sentence in the island prison of İmralı in the Sea of Marmara, issued a call for the PKK to lay down its arms and disband. His message was relayed by DEM party representatives who met him in prison. Ocalan was captured by Turkish special forces in Kenya in February 1999, and since then, most PKK fighters have been based in the mountainous regions of northern Iraq.

Ocalan’s call came after a statement last October by Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Türkiye’s parliament. Bahçeli proposed a deal to free Ocalan in exchange for the PKK’s cessation of its insurgency.

Hatimogulları, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, explained that “with the PKK’s announcement of plans to hold a disarmament conference, it is essential that military operations and airstrikes cease. Additionally, the necessary technical and logistical infrastructure must be established to enable direct communication between Ocalan and the PKK.”

The potential developments between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ocalan could have significant repercussions across the Middle East, with signs of these effects already beginning to emerge.

Both Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and Nechirvan Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, sent representatives to attend Nowruz celebrations in Amed (Diyarbakir).

During their visit, they met with officials from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (HDP). In turn, the HDP sent representatives to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in February to discuss the peace initiative. There, they held talks with officials from the Barzani-led KDP and the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), BafelTalabani.