Exclusive - Turkey, Qatar and the Return of ISIS to Libya

Militias allied to Libya's GNA fight rival groups in Tripoli in September 2018. (Reuters)
Militias allied to Libya's GNA fight rival groups in Tripoli in September 2018. (Reuters)
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Exclusive - Turkey, Qatar and the Return of ISIS to Libya

Militias allied to Libya's GNA fight rival groups in Tripoli in September 2018. (Reuters)
Militias allied to Libya's GNA fight rival groups in Tripoli in September 2018. (Reuters)

Are Turkey and Qatar openly backing terrorists in Libya? And if so, why has the international community remained silent over the issue? Why hasn’t it taken serious action to address the situation and resolve the Libyan crisis once and for all?

As it stands, the Libyan National Army (LNA) is trying to rid the country of terrorism and terrorists. Simultaneously, intense efforts are underway to bring in ISIS members, who have fled Syria and Iraq, into Libyan regions that are controlled by militias. International intelligence agencies have the evidence to prove this.

Turkish meddling

It is no secret that Turkey and Qatar are behind the developments in Libya. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who failed in spreading his Islamist agenda during the so-called Arab Spring, is now attempting to make up for his losses by meddling in Libya. It represents his last hope to revive his illusions. He believes that if extremists succeed in Libya, then their influence may spread to neighboring Tunisia in the west and Egypt in the east. Egypt, he believes, spoiled his plans in recent years when the people revolted in June 2013.

Developments in Libya have exposed Ankara’s supplying of weapons to militias in flagrant violation of the arms embargo imposed on the country since 2011. Intelligence agencies received information in the past two weeks of the arrival of several Ukrainian aircraft to Tripoli from Ankara loaded with weapons for the pro-Government of National Accord (GNA) militias.

The GNA, which has lost its aerial firepower, is in much need of aerial support. It is working tirelessly to bring in drones from Turkey in an attempt to cause as much damage as possible against the LNA. Ankara has so far supplied the GNA with eight attack drones, in violation of the arms embargo.

In addition to weapons, Turkey has sent intelligence agents to support the Tripoli-based militias and terrorist groups, revealed a Libyan military source. The LNA has obtained the names of 19 Turkish officers, whom Ankara has dispatched to Libya to operate the drones.

As for Qatar, militias it supports planted French-made Javelin rockets in LNA weapons storehouses to make it appear as if it was violating the embargo. Doha has also helped the militias purchase advanced weapons from Bulgaria and later smuggled them to Libya.

ISIS return

Are Turkey and Qatar facilitating the return of ISIS to Libya? It is no secret that extremists residing in Qatar, who are affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups, are active these days in bringing in terrorists from Iraq and Syria to Libya. While Doha exploits its transportation companies to that end, Erdogan has opened up his airports for these terrorists.

Libyan MP Ali al-Saeedi confirmed Turkey’s involvement in transporting terrorists to his country. He stressed that the extremists seek to fight the LNA during its operation against Tripoli.

Moreover, the ISIS affiliate in Libya recently reemerged in the country. The group released a video of Mahmoud al-Baraasi, known as Abu Musab al-Libi, the founder of the ISIS affiliate in Benghazi, vowing to wage attacks against the LNA. The video, which showed dozens of militants pledging allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was likely shot in the southern region of Sabha.

In May, ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack on an oilfield in the town of Zillah, some 650 kilometers southeast of the capital Tripoli. The attack was seen as an escalation against LNA-held regions in the South.

Returning to Erdogan, what does he really want from Libya?

He is seeking to make up for his political losses in Turkey and his country’s deteriorating economy. He is set to face even greater challenges should Washington impose sanctions on Ankara over its purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia.

Erdogan is ultimately eyeing Libya’s oil and gas reserves to make up for his losses back home.

During the rule of late leader Moammar al-Gaddafi, Turkish companies operated in Libya and made billions of dollars in profits. This changed with Gaddafi’s ouster. Ankara managed to establish close ties with the GNA, allowing its companies to again regain a foothold and reap interests. This again came to halt, this time when the LNA launched its operation against Tripoli in April. The army therefore, became a major threat to Turkey’s economic and financial ambitions, pushing it firmly to side with Fayez al-Sarraj’s GNA against the advancing forces.

Any end in sight?

It is obvious that the situation in Libya is complicated, compounded even further by ISIS’ threat. The crisis is now an issue of global security and Europe must step up this time and compensate for the losses that led Libya down its destructive path in the first place. The international community must also take a stand and take decisive positions against Turkey and Qatar’s ambitions.

As for the United States, its stance remains vague, but the administration of Donald Trump is definitely opposed to terrorism. As it stands, however, it is currently distracted by the crisis with Iran.

At any rate, a resolution to the Libyan crisis is unlikely in the near future, which is the best environment for radicals and terrorists to thrive. Will the world therefore, sit idly by as ISIS aspires to open a new bloody chapter, this time on the shores of the Mediterranean?



Lebanon's Army Chief Joseph Aoun, a Man with a Tough Mission

Lebanon's Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun attends a cabinet meeting in Beirut on November 27, 2024, to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP
Lebanon's Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun attends a cabinet meeting in Beirut on November 27, 2024, to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP
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Lebanon's Army Chief Joseph Aoun, a Man with a Tough Mission

Lebanon's Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun attends a cabinet meeting in Beirut on November 27, 2024, to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP
Lebanon's Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun attends a cabinet meeting in Beirut on November 27, 2024, to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. - AFP

Lebanese army chief Joseph Aoun, who is being touted as a possible candidate for the presidency, is a man with a tough mission following an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire that relies heavily on his troops deploying in the south.

Aoun, 60, was set to retire last January after heading the army since 2017, but has had his mandate extended twice -- the last time on Thursday.

The army, widely respected and a rare source of unity in a country riven by sectarian and political divides, has held together despite periodic social strife, the latest war and a crushing five-year economic crisis.
A fragile ceasefire took effect on Wednesday, ending more than a year of war between Israel and Hezbollah that has killed thousands in Lebanon and caused mass displacements on both sides of the border.
Under its terms, the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers are to become the only armed presence in south Lebanon, where Hezbollah enjoys strong support and had been launching attacks on Israeli troops for months, and fighting them on the ground since late September.

The move averted a military power vacuum as the army, which boasts about 80,000 Lebanese servicemen, seeks to bolster its deployment in south Lebanon as part of the nascent truce.

But it will be a difficult task in an area long seen as Hezbollah territory, and risks upsetting the country's already delicate social balance as tensions run high over the war's course and devastation.

- 'Integrity' -

Aoun "has a reputation of personal integrity", said Karim Bitar, an international relations expert at Beirut's Saint-Joseph University.

The army chief came into prominence after leading the army in a battle to drive out the ISIS group from a mountanous area along the Syrian border.

"Within the Lebanese army, he is perceived as someone who is dedicated... who has the national interest at heart, and who has been trying to consolidate this institution, which is the last non-sectarian institution still on its feet in the country," he told AFP.

Aoun has good relations with groups across the political spectrum, including with Hezbollah, as well as with various foreign countries.

Mohanad Hage Ali from the Carnegie Middle East Center noted that "being the head of US-backed Lebanese Armed Forces, Joseph Aoun has ties to the United States".

"While he maintained relations with everyone, Hezbollah-affiliated media often criticized him" for his US ties, he told AFP.

An international conference in Paris last month raised $200 million to support the armed forces.

The military has been hit hard by Lebanon's economic crisis, and at one point in 2020 said it had scrapped meat from the meals offered to on-duty soldiers due to rising food prices.

Aoun has also been floated by several politicians, parties and local media as a potential candidate for Lebanon's presidency, vacant for more than two years amid deadlock between allies of Hezbollah and its opponents, who accuse the group of seeking to impose its preferred candidate.

Aoun has not commented on the reports and largely refrains from making media statements.

- President? -

A Western diplomat told AFP that "everyone has recognized Aoun's track record at the head of the army".

"But the question is, can he transform himself into a politician?" said the diplomat, requesting anonymity to discuss politically sensitive matters.

Bitar said that "many, even those who respect him are opposed to his election as president, because he comes from the army mostly", noting a number of Lebanon's heads of state, including recently, were former army chiefs.

Most "left a bittersweet taste", Bitar said, noting any election of Aoun could also perpetuate the idea that the army chief "systematically becomes president".

This could end up weakening the military as it creates "an unhealthy relationship between political power and the army, which is supposed to remain neutral", he added.

Hage Ali said that the idea of Aoun's "candidacy for the presidency did not receive much enthusiasm from the major figures in the political class, even those who are opposed to Hezbollah".

Aoun, who speaks Arabic, French and English, hails from Lebanon's Christian community and has two children.

By convention, the presidency goes to a Maronite Christian, the premiership is reserved for a Sunni Muslim and the post of parliament speaker goes to a Shiite Muslim.

He is not related to the previous Lebanese president Michel Aoun -- also a former army chief -- although the two served together in the military.