Syrian Offensive Puts Turkish Troops and Border Plans in Peril

A Turkish military convoy is seen in Syria's province of Idlib. (Getty Images)
A Turkish military convoy is seen in Syria's province of Idlib. (Getty Images)
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Syrian Offensive Puts Turkish Troops and Border Plans in Peril

A Turkish military convoy is seen in Syria's province of Idlib. (Getty Images)
A Turkish military convoy is seen in Syria's province of Idlib. (Getty Images)

Syrian regime advances in northwest Syria are putting Turkish troops in the firing line and threaten Ankara’s hopes of preventing a new wave of refugees on its southern border.

The offensive around Idlib, the last major opposition stronghold in Syria, has already forced tens of thousands of civilians to flee towards Turkey.

It has also cut off a Turkish military post deep inside Syria as the deal to limit fighting in the region, which the Turkish troops were supposed to be monitoring, collapses, said Reuters.

The breakdown of that deal would be a significant blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has steered Turkey closer to Russia in recent years but appears unable to rein back Moscow’s support for the Syrian regime offensive.

Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed in 2017 to set up four “de-escalation zones” to stem fighting between regime leader Bashar Assad’s forces and opposition factions, but the regime has retaken three of those areas and is now advancing in the fourth.

It has entered the town of Khan Sheikhoun, effectively cutting off Turkish troops at a military post near the town of Morek, 70 km (45 miles) inside Syria. A Turkish convoy sent to resupply the Morek post was halted on Monday by an air strike.

“The situation there is of critical sensitivity,” Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said after a cabinet meeting on Wednesday.

Turkey, which supports some Syrian opposition factions, has troops deployed at 12 military observation posts around the Idlib region under the 2017 deal with Moscow and Tehran, which back Assad’s regime.

That agreement, and a Turkey-Russia accord last year aimed at reducing the power of extremist fighters in the Idlib region, has at best had only a limited impact.

Turkey complained that Syrian and Russia air strikes in the region continued, while Moscow grew increasingly impatient over what it saw as Ankara’s failure to stop extremists from the former Nusra Front taking over much of Idlib.

Russia also says the fighters in Idlib and Hama provinces threatened its Hmeimim air base, less than 40 km to the west.

Civilians flee

Turkey insists it has no plans to abandon or move any of the military posts it set up in Idlib, despite Monday’s airstrike and the fighting around Morek.

“All observation posts will continue operations where they are located right now,” Kalin said, adding that agreements to halt military operations around Idlib must be respected.

“Otherwise, both the violation of this agreement and the resulting humanitarian drama will be inevitable.”

The United Nations says more than 500,000 people have been uprooted since the regime began its offensive in late April, most of them escaping deeper into the opposition bastion and towards the border.

Turkey, which opened its border at the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011 and now hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees, is determined to avoid another influx of civilians - or fighters.

It has built a wall along the 800 km Syrian border and says it has identified locations inside Syria to shelter a possible wave of people fleeing the fighting in Idlib.

“If there is this kind of movement to our borders we will take action and create shelters where we are going to accommodate displaced people outside our borders,” Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said this week.

He did not specify whether the camps would be in Idlib province or Turkish-controlled areas of northern Syria around the towns of Azaz, Al-Bab and Jarablus.

Staying put

Turkey’s determination to stand by all 12 of its military posts in Idlib was reiterated this week by the government, and a senior security official told Reuters Ankara was standing by its troops on the ground.

“Whichever observation post needs it, support is provided, the official said.

However, that will prove increasingly challenging for Turkey unless there is a change of course by Moscow or Damascus, which has repeatedly said it is committed to recapturing every inch of Syrian territory.

“The Turkish observation posts are not constituted to defend themselves and at least one of them has been encircled by Syrian regime forces,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli from the German Marshall Fund. “When the risk of conflict rises too much, Turkey will probably retreat.”

Erdogan will speak to Putin about Idlib as soon as possible, Kalin told reporters after the cabinet meeting.

Just last month, Turkish ties with Russia appeared stronger than ever as Erdogan took delivery of advanced S-400 Russian missile defense equipment - despite a threat of US sanctions and strong lobbying by Washington to stall the deal.

Six weeks later, Moscow and Ankara’s differences over northwest Syria appear irreconcilable and Turkey’s Idlib strategy is in peril.

“The end state is clear,” said Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and a former Turkish diplomat.

Pressure on the southernmost Turkish observation posts - those which are the furthest inside Syria - would spread to other Turkish positions as the Syrian army offensive continues, and Turkey would likely pull some troops back.

“It was a matter of time,” Ulgen said. “To me the surprise is that it happened so soon after the S-400 episode. It proves how little leverage Turkey has gained with Russia.”



Syrians in Libya Struggle to Escape ‘Exile in Limbo’

A photo shows young Syrian men who drowned after their boat capsized off the coast of Libya. Credit: Rights activist Tarek Lamloum
A photo shows young Syrian men who drowned after their boat capsized off the coast of Libya. Credit: Rights activist Tarek Lamloum
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Syrians in Libya Struggle to Escape ‘Exile in Limbo’

A photo shows young Syrian men who drowned after their boat capsized off the coast of Libya. Credit: Rights activist Tarek Lamloum
A photo shows young Syrian men who drowned after their boat capsized off the coast of Libya. Credit: Rights activist Tarek Lamloum

About seven months ago, a group of 25 Syrian youths, including minors, set off from Libya on an irregular migration journey toward Europe. Only four made it back alive. The rest drowned in the Mediterranean.

The tragedy, which left a deep mark on Syrian communities both in Libya and abroad, has drawn renewed attention to the large and diverse Syrian population now living in the North African country, some fleeing the war in Syria under former President Bashar al-Assad, others settled there long before.

Syria’s presence in Libya is far from monolithic. It spans businessmen, migrant laborers, families who settled during the rule of Muammar Gaddafi, and former fighters now working as mercenaries. Many also see Libya as a temporary stop on the perilous path to Europe.

For most, Libya is not the destination but a gateway. The recent drowning of 21 Syrians in the Mediterranean was not an isolated tragedy, but part of a pattern of loss that has haunted the community for years.

Reports from local and international migration watchdogs have documented repeated drownings and arrests of Syrians at sea, with many captured by Libya’s coastguard and detained in overcrowded jails.

Despite the risks, many Syrians have managed to adapt to life in Libya, integrating into local communities and participating in its economy.

Yet numerous challenges persist, particularly for undocumented workers and those living without valid residency papers. Many report facing discrimination, abuse, and difficult working conditions.

As thousands of Syrian refugees across the Middle East prepare to return home amid improving conditions and relaxed restrictions, Syrians in Libya remain stuck, unable to stay, and unable to leave.

“We’re caught in the middle,” said one Syrian resident in Tripoli. “We can’t endure much longer, but we also can’t afford to go back.”

Many Syrians in Libya say they are increasingly vulnerable to exploitation, including passport confiscation and harassment by armed groups and criminal gangs operating with impunity.

Several Syrian residents told Asharq Al-Awsat they are facing rising unemployment, frequent kidnappings, and demands for ransom by militias. For those who now wish to return to Syria, doing so has become financially prohibitive due to hefty fines for visa violations.

Steep Penalties for Overstaying

Under a revised Libyan immigration law enacted on March 14, 2024, foreigners who overstay their visas or residency permits are charged 500 Libyan dinars - around $90 - per month. The regulation adds a significant burden for many Syrians whose legal documents have expired and who lack the resources to renew them or pay the fines required to exit the country legally.

Due to the political division in Libya since 2014, no official statistics exist on the number of foreign residents. However, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) reported in 2020 that approximately 14,500 Syrian refugees and asylum seekers were living in Libya.

Ten years after arriving in Libya, Ahmed Kamal Al-Fakhouri says he is now trapped, unable to afford life in the country or the high costs of leaving it.

“They’ve imposed fines on us that are beyond reason - nearly $1,500 per person,” said Fakhouri, a restaurant worker in Tripoli, echoing a growing outcry among Syrians in Libya burdened by mounting penalties and legal uncertainties. “Sometimes, I can’t even afford a day’s meal.”

Fakhouri fled Derna after the deadly floods of August 2023 and resettled in Tripoli.

“I saw death with my own eyes,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat, describing the trauma of losing his home. “Now we’re living in misery. We want the world to hear our voice - we want to go back to our country.”

Libya hosts thousands of Syrians, including doctors, engineers, university students, and day laborers who fill the country’s markets in search of work to support their families.

Yet many say they now find themselves stuck, facing visa penalties they can’t afford and no clear path home - even as the fall of Assad’s regime renews hopes for return.

“Exit Tax” Burdens Families

While Libya’s labor ministries have issued no formal statement on the matter, members of the Syrian community say they are being charged an "exit tax" calculated based on their overstay period. No official decree has been published, but testimonies suggest the fees are acting as a de facto barrier to departure.

Following Assad’s ouster, many Syrians are reconsidering return, describing exile as a “prison,” but are deterred by the financial burden of settling overstays.

Asharq Al-Awsat reached out to both of Libya’s rival labor ministries to clarify policies affecting Syrians and the reported fines for expired documents, but received no response.

Zekeriya Saadi, another Syrian living in Tripoli, has publicly called on authorities in both eastern and western Libya to cancel the exit tax and allow those wishing to return to Syria to do so.

“In these unbearable conditions, it’s unreasonable to ask refugees to pay such high fees just to leave the country,” he said. “This tax is a major obstacle, it exceeds our capacity, especially given our financial hardships.”

Saadi said most Syrians in Libya are low-income families without stable jobs. “Many are at risk of eviction, kidnapping, or exploitation. Leaving has become a matter of survival,” he said. “How can a displaced person be treated like a tourist or a wealthy expat?”

He urged Syria’s Foreign Ministry to take a clear stance and negotiate with Libyan authorities for fee exemptions and coordinated return efforts, while also working to protect Syrians who remain in the country.

Passport Problems Bar Education

Beyond financial barriers, expired passports are also stranding Syrians in legal limbo. Many have lost access to services, and the issue is now affecting the next generation.

According to Syrian media reports, education officials in Misrata barred at least 100 Syrian children from enrolling in public schools because their parents’ passports had expired, highlighting how bureaucratic obstacles are deepening the crisis for displaced families.