Syrian Offensive Puts Turkish Troops and Border Plans in Peril

A Turkish military convoy is seen in Syria's province of Idlib. (Getty Images)
A Turkish military convoy is seen in Syria's province of Idlib. (Getty Images)
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Syrian Offensive Puts Turkish Troops and Border Plans in Peril

A Turkish military convoy is seen in Syria's province of Idlib. (Getty Images)
A Turkish military convoy is seen in Syria's province of Idlib. (Getty Images)

Syrian regime advances in northwest Syria are putting Turkish troops in the firing line and threaten Ankara’s hopes of preventing a new wave of refugees on its southern border.

The offensive around Idlib, the last major opposition stronghold in Syria, has already forced tens of thousands of civilians to flee towards Turkey.

It has also cut off a Turkish military post deep inside Syria as the deal to limit fighting in the region, which the Turkish troops were supposed to be monitoring, collapses, said Reuters.

The breakdown of that deal would be a significant blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has steered Turkey closer to Russia in recent years but appears unable to rein back Moscow’s support for the Syrian regime offensive.

Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed in 2017 to set up four “de-escalation zones” to stem fighting between regime leader Bashar Assad’s forces and opposition factions, but the regime has retaken three of those areas and is now advancing in the fourth.

It has entered the town of Khan Sheikhoun, effectively cutting off Turkish troops at a military post near the town of Morek, 70 km (45 miles) inside Syria. A Turkish convoy sent to resupply the Morek post was halted on Monday by an air strike.

“The situation there is of critical sensitivity,” Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said after a cabinet meeting on Wednesday.

Turkey, which supports some Syrian opposition factions, has troops deployed at 12 military observation posts around the Idlib region under the 2017 deal with Moscow and Tehran, which back Assad’s regime.

That agreement, and a Turkey-Russia accord last year aimed at reducing the power of extremist fighters in the Idlib region, has at best had only a limited impact.

Turkey complained that Syrian and Russia air strikes in the region continued, while Moscow grew increasingly impatient over what it saw as Ankara’s failure to stop extremists from the former Nusra Front taking over much of Idlib.

Russia also says the fighters in Idlib and Hama provinces threatened its Hmeimim air base, less than 40 km to the west.

Civilians flee

Turkey insists it has no plans to abandon or move any of the military posts it set up in Idlib, despite Monday’s airstrike and the fighting around Morek.

“All observation posts will continue operations where they are located right now,” Kalin said, adding that agreements to halt military operations around Idlib must be respected.

“Otherwise, both the violation of this agreement and the resulting humanitarian drama will be inevitable.”

The United Nations says more than 500,000 people have been uprooted since the regime began its offensive in late April, most of them escaping deeper into the opposition bastion and towards the border.

Turkey, which opened its border at the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011 and now hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees, is determined to avoid another influx of civilians - or fighters.

It has built a wall along the 800 km Syrian border and says it has identified locations inside Syria to shelter a possible wave of people fleeing the fighting in Idlib.

“If there is this kind of movement to our borders we will take action and create shelters where we are going to accommodate displaced people outside our borders,” Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said this week.

He did not specify whether the camps would be in Idlib province or Turkish-controlled areas of northern Syria around the towns of Azaz, Al-Bab and Jarablus.

Staying put

Turkey’s determination to stand by all 12 of its military posts in Idlib was reiterated this week by the government, and a senior security official told Reuters Ankara was standing by its troops on the ground.

“Whichever observation post needs it, support is provided, the official said.

However, that will prove increasingly challenging for Turkey unless there is a change of course by Moscow or Damascus, which has repeatedly said it is committed to recapturing every inch of Syrian territory.

“The Turkish observation posts are not constituted to defend themselves and at least one of them has been encircled by Syrian regime forces,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli from the German Marshall Fund. “When the risk of conflict rises too much, Turkey will probably retreat.”

Erdogan will speak to Putin about Idlib as soon as possible, Kalin told reporters after the cabinet meeting.

Just last month, Turkish ties with Russia appeared stronger than ever as Erdogan took delivery of advanced S-400 Russian missile defense equipment - despite a threat of US sanctions and strong lobbying by Washington to stall the deal.

Six weeks later, Moscow and Ankara’s differences over northwest Syria appear irreconcilable and Turkey’s Idlib strategy is in peril.

“The end state is clear,” said Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and a former Turkish diplomat.

Pressure on the southernmost Turkish observation posts - those which are the furthest inside Syria - would spread to other Turkish positions as the Syrian army offensive continues, and Turkey would likely pull some troops back.

“It was a matter of time,” Ulgen said. “To me the surprise is that it happened so soon after the S-400 episode. It proves how little leverage Turkey has gained with Russia.”



Gazans’ Daily Struggle for Water After Deadly Israeli Strike

 Palestinians wait for donated food at a community kitchen in Gaza City, in the northern Gaza Strip, Monday, July 14, 2025. (AP)
Palestinians wait for donated food at a community kitchen in Gaza City, in the northern Gaza Strip, Monday, July 14, 2025. (AP)
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Gazans’ Daily Struggle for Water After Deadly Israeli Strike

 Palestinians wait for donated food at a community kitchen in Gaza City, in the northern Gaza Strip, Monday, July 14, 2025. (AP)
Palestinians wait for donated food at a community kitchen in Gaza City, in the northern Gaza Strip, Monday, July 14, 2025. (AP)

The al-Manasra family rarely get enough water for both drinking and washing after their daily trudge to a Gaza distribution point like the one where eight people were killed on Sunday in a strike that Israel's military said had missed its target.

Living in a tent camp by the ruins of a smashed concrete building in Gaza City, the family say their children are already suffering from diarrhea and skin maladies and from the lack of clean water, and they fear worse to come.

"There's no water, our children have been infected with scabies, there are no hospitals to go to and no medications," said Akram Manasra, 51.

He had set off on Monday for a local water tap with three of his daughters, each of them carrying two heavy plastic containers in Gaza's blazing summer heat, but they only managed to fill two - barely enough for the family of 10.

Gaza's lack of clean water after 21 months of war and four months of Israeli blockade is already having "devastating impacts on public health" the United Nations humanitarian agency OCHA said in a report this month.

For people queuing at a water distribution point on Sunday it was fatal. A missile that Israel said had targeted fighters but malfunctioned hit a queue of people waiting to collect water at the Nuseirat refugee camp.

Israel's blockade of fuel along with the difficulty in accessing wells and desalination plants in zones controlled by the Israeli military is severely constraining water, sanitation and hygiene services according to OCHA.

Fuel shortages have also hit waste and sewage services, risking more contamination of the tiny, crowded territory's dwindling water supply, and diseases causing diarrhea and jaundice are spreading among people crammed into shelters and weakened by hunger.

"If electricity was allowed to desalination plants the problem of a lethal lack of water, which is what's becoming the situation now in Gaza, would be changed within 24 hours," said James Elder, the spokesperson for the UN's children's agency UNICEF.

"What possible reason can there be for denying of a legitimate amount of water that a family needs?" he added.

COGAT, the Israeli military aid coordination agency, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Last week, an Israeli military official said that Israel was allowing sufficient fuel into Gaza but that its distribution around the enclave was not under Israel's purview.

THIRSTY AND DIRTY

For the Manasra family, like others in Gaza, the daily toil of finding water is exhausting and often fruitless.

Inside their tent the family tries to maintain hygiene by sweeping. But there is no water for proper cleaning and sometimes they are unable to wash dishes from their meager meals for several days at a time.

Manasra sat in the tent and showed how one of his young daughters had angry red marks across her back from what he said a doctor had told them was a skin infection caused by the lack of clean water.

They maintain a strict regimen of water use by priority.

After pouring their two containers of water from the distribution point into a broken plastic water butt by their tent, they use it to clean themselves from the tap, using their hands to spoon it over their heads and bodies.

Water that runs off into the basin underneath is then used for dishes and after that - now grey and dirty - for clothes.

"How is this going to be enough for 10 people? For the showering, washing, dish washing, and the washing of the covers. It's been three months; we haven't washed the covers, and the weather is hot," Manasra said.

His wife, Umm Khaled, sat washing clothes in a tiny puddle of water at the bottom of a bucket - all that was left after the more urgent requirements of drinking and cooking.

"My daughter was very sick from the heat rash and the scabies. I went to several doctors for her and they prescribed many medications. Two of my children yesterday, one had diarrhea and vomiting and the other had fever and infections from the dirty water," she said.